When You Should Draft New Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa In Dynasty

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Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa Dynasty Rookie Analysis

  • Position: QB | School: Alabama
  • Height: 6’ | Weight: 217 pounds
  • 2020 Age: 22 | Class: Junior
  • Recruitment Stars: 4-5
  • Draft Position: 1.05 (Dolphins)

Tua Tagovailoa’s Fantasy Fit with Dolphins

The Dolphins actually did tank for Tua, after all.

I like the landing spot for Tagovailoa in Miami. I doubt that he will play in 2020, as the Dolphins will want to give him as much time as possible to recover from his hip injury, but he should be able to learn on the bench as a rookie behind veteran journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick, who should be a willing and intelligent mentor.

And whenever Tagovailoa gets the starting job in 2021, he’ll have wide receivers DeVante Parker and Preston Williams and tight end Mike Gesicki at his disposal.

On the whole, a very positive situation for Tagovailoa.

Tua Tagovailoa: Dynasty Analysis

Tagovailoa entered the 2019 college season as the presumptive No. 1 pick, but a potentially career-threatening hip injury in November has drastically changed his draft outlook.

His talent is unquestioned: In his abbreviated junior campaign, Tagovailoa completed 71.4% of his passes and had an elite 13.4 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A).

[Easy Money! Get 2-1 Odds on Joe Burrow to Go No. 1 … (Yes, We’re Serious)]

If you look at the quarterback leaderboards in the 2020 Sports Info Solutions Football Rookie Handbook — a great resource that I recommend to anyone who wants to dig into this strong rookie class — you’ll see Tagovailoa at the top of several key statistics for 2019.

  • Yards per attempt: 11.3 (1st)
  • Independent quarterback rating: 146.6 (1st)
  • Expected pointed added per dropback: 0.49 (1st)

And of course Tagovailoa’s numbers are almost as good for 2018, when he completed a nice 69.0% of his passes for 3,966 yards, a 12.8 AY/A and a 43-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

  • Yards per attempt: 11.2
  • Independent quarterback rating: 140.6
  • Expected pointed added per dropback: 0.43

For context: Quarterback Joe Burrow (LSU) — the No. 1 pick and 2019 Heisman Trophy winner who just had the greatest passing season ever with 5,671 yards and 60 touchdowns — had only 0.39 expected points per drobpack last year.

Tagovailoa has bested that number twice. But he also has massive injury concerns.

For Tagovailoa to be the better player, he actually has to be able to play. In the words of Aldous Snow, “How can you read when you are blind?”

It looks as if Tagovailoa is recovering well.

But multiple teams reportedly were worried about Tagovailoa’s health throughout the lead-up to the draft.

Tagovailoa’s talent is undeniable. He might be the best quarterback in the class. Throughout his entire college career, he almost never played bad football.

But he has dealt with all manner of injuries over the past two years (broken finger, sprained knee, strained quad, twisted ankles, dislocated and fractured hip). More than a few NFL evaluators reportedly believe that Tagovailoa is fragile. Brittle. Too small to be a dependable starter.

And that might be the case.

But he’s definitely worth a speculative selection in Round 3 of rookie drafts, because if NFL evaluators are wrong, he could be a big hit.

Tagovailoa doesn’t have elite arm strength, but he’s highly accurate to most areas of the field, quick with his delivery and careful with the ball. He’s an anticipatory thrower and an above-average scrambler.

He has perennial top-12 upside and “It’s too bad Tua couldn’t stay healthy” downside.

I’m comfortable betting on his potential.

NFL Prospect Comp: Drew Brees but left-handed and with more draft capital

More Dynasty Analysis For Freedman’s Top Rookies

  1. RB D’Andre Swift
  2. RB Jonathan Taylor
  3. WR Jerry Jeudy
  4. WR CeeDee Lamb
  5. WR Justin Jefferson

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, part of The Action Network.

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