Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Newcastle vs. West Ham (July 5)

EPL Odds: Newcastle vs. West Ham

Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Life at the bottom of the Premier League table can be miserable and stressful.

For West Ham United, it’s been just that as of late. However, a stunning home win against powerhouse Chelsea on Wednesday has the club believing it can steer clear of the relegation zone with another solid result Sunday when it journeys north to face Newcastle United.

West Ham picked up that 3-2 victory Wednesday, pushing it three points clear of the drop area on 30 points. It was a much-needed triumph for manager David Moyes.

Newcastle comes into this match boasting its best run of form over the course of its entire season. The Magpies earned a 4-1 win against Bournemouth last time out.

West Ham, currently 16th in expected goals (38.32) in the Premier League, have been terrible on the road as of late, dropping their last seven league matches away from London Stadium. The club has been shut out four times during that stretch.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Defensively, West Ham hasn’t been any better and sits 19th in the league in expected goals against (62.16) out of 20 clubs. That porous display in the back has been glorified on the road, where the Hammers have and conceded at least two goals in five of those matches.

Newcastle has been slightly better in its defensive third of the pitch, ranking 16th in expected goals against (55.41) this season. On the bright side, the Magpies have recorded four shutouts in their last eight league tilts.

All that said, I am backing the total goals to go over the number. Newcastle has thoroughly upped its game, particularly on the offensive side, since the Premier League’s return from hiatus.

Prior to global soccer being shut down, the Magpies averaged 0.9 goals per league match. That lack of scoring prowess has led them to just 30.97 expected goals, which is second to last in the league. However, Newcastle has done a complete 180-degree turn since returning to the pitch, averaging close to three goals (2.7 to be exact) in Premier League competition.

Combine Newcastle’s output with a West Ham club really needing more points to get clear of the drop zone and you have the makings of a wide-open affair.

If you are looking for a side, I am playing Newcastle at a decent number on the three-way line to get the job done in style.

The Magpies are unbeaten in their last five home matches in league play and really do thrive at St. James’ Park. Add in the fact West Ham has not won back-to-back league contests since August and you have a perfect

The Bets:

• Newcastle (+170)
• Over 2.5 Goals (+114)

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