Bitcoin's volatile price action continues as the cryptocurrency hovers around $67,000, with Kalshi prediction markets showing a 67% probability that Bitcoin will stay above $66,500 today. That outcome is priced at $0.67 per contract on the market.
The prediction market data reveals increasingly bearish sentiment as price thresholds climb higher. While there's a 59% chance Bitcoin holds above $67,000 (priced at $0.59), those odds plummet to just 34% for staying above $68,000 and only 16% for breaking $69,000. The market's heaviest trading volume of over 35,000 contracts centers around the $69,000 threshold, suggesting this level represents a critical psychological barrier for traders.
If you want to get in on the action and predict today's Bitcoin price, Kalshi offers trading on a variety of markets. Kalshi is offered in most states and allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, politics, and entertainment.
Today's Bitcoin Price Predictions
Bitcoin's recent trajectory supports this cautious market sentiment. After reaching an all-time high of above $126,000 in October, the world's largest cryptocurrency has been on a sustained downward path. The digital asset briefly recovered from early February lows to touch $70,000 before falling back below that key level, exhibiting the continued volatility that has defined recent trading sessions.
Technical indicators paint a concerning picture for Bitcoin bulls. Daily RSI has dipped into oversold territory at 29.94, while the cryptocurrency rides the lower Bollinger Band with elevated volatility. Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, told CNBC he expects Bitcoin could fall as low as $50,000 during the summer months, suggesting the historical four-year halving cycle remains intact.
The prediction market's probability distribution effectively captures this uncertainty. Higher price thresholds — above $70,000 — trade at minimal odds of 3-10%, indicating traders see little chance of significant upward movement in the near term. This aligns with analyst observations that Bitcoin is showing "early signs of bottoming."
What is Kalshi
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1-99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
