2019 John Deere Classic Matchup Bets: Vaughn Taylor vs. Harold Varner III

Credit:

May 19, 2018; Dallas, TX, USA; Vaughn Taylor plays his shot from the first tee during the third round of the AT&T Byron Nelson golf tournament at Trinity Forest Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

  • The 2019 John Deere Classic begins on Thursday, July 11 at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Ill.
  • Justin Bailey uses metrics from FantasyLabs to break down one matchup offering betting value.

In this piece, I’ll be using the golf metrics in the FantasyLabs PGA Models as well as other golf metrics in search of potentially exploitable individual betting matchups for the 2019 John Deere Classic.

Let’s dive into this week’s action.

All odds as of Tuesday morning.

Vaughn Taylor (-105) over Harold Varner III

Taylor is one of my favorite DFS plays this week, and I’ll gladly take him as short dog against Varner. Their long-term form in the FantasyLabs models is close to a wash, but I’m mostly targeting Taylor’s recent form (Taylor listed first):

  • Recent Adjusted Round Score: 68.8 vs. 70.4
  • Birdies per tournament: 17.3 vs. 11.0
  • Adjusted strokes on par 5s: -2.7 vs. -2.5

Additionally, over their past 24 rounds, Taylor ranks 13th in Strokes Gained: Approach, compared to 102nd for Varner, respectively.

Overall, Taylor has been excellent over that time frame, ranking fourth in total strokes gained, a mark that trails only Viktor Hovland and Joaquin Niemann in this field.

 

While Varner has the driving distance edge on Taylor, Taylor has still been incredibly efficient on par 5s during this run of exceptional play. TPC Deere Run features three par 5s from 550-600 yards and he ranks 18th in par-5 efficiency from such distances, compared to 103rd for Varner.

I’d bet this down to -115.

Note: Strokes Gained data via Fantasy National

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