Sobel’s Favorite Players Championship Tournament Matchups: Fading Three Big Names

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. – Considering the annual parity at The Players Championship and the usual unpredictability being magnified by a move back to March, the smart play this week should be matchup bets – and especially those which offer some value.

I’ve identified three such bets for the four tournament rounds this week, which starts with a Tiger fade on what isn’t necessarily his favorite course on the schedule.

Xander Schauffele over Tiger Woods (+105)

I’ve got Tiger penciled in for a T-23 finish this week. Not great, not awful. Nothing that would immediately make us bet him for the Masters, but nothing that would scare us away, either.

I do think Schauffele should be able to beat that number. He loves proving himself in big fields against the best players, and no field is as strong as this one. At plus-money, I like the value in this bet.

Justin Thomas over Dustin Johnson (+110)

This line is feels too juiced in DJ’s favor, considering how similar they should be this week.

Two of the game’s best players, each with terrific ball-striking numbers, on a course which has stymied both of them at times (at least in comparison to how they play other tracks).

I like JT better in this one – and I certainly like him better at this price. With a T-3 and T-11 in the past three years, Thomas could be primed for a solid week.

Francesco Molinari over Justin Rose (Even)

While Molinari was busy going low in the final round at Bay Hill last week, Rose was busy blowing up, posting scores of 77-75 on the weekend. I can’t imagine there’s any sort of long-term worries for Rose, but he’s clearly off his game a bit right now.

Matched against a recent winner who’s shown a propensity for stepping on the gas pedal when he’s feeling it, this feels like all signs are pointing in Molinari’s direction.