2021 Mayakoba Odds & Picks: Target Finau & Ortiz at World Wide Technology Championship
Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Tony Fianu.
After a wild week in Bermuda that saw the field shrink by the day leading up to the event — and then further as a distinct wave advantage played out into the weekend — the PGA TOUR now heads to another international coast for the Mayakoba. This week, players will tee it up in Mexico at the Greg Norman-designed El Camaleon, which has hosted this event since 2007.
It has attracted one of the better fields of the swing season this week as Justin Thomas headlines the top tier, alongside the likes of Brooks Koepka, Patrick Reed and defending champion Viktor Hovland. The home crowd will also have a few of their own, led by Abraham Ancer, who comes into the week in lockstep with Hovland on the odds leaderboard, only behind Thomas.
The players will be set for a short, resort style par-70 course, which has produced winners around 20-under par historically. We can expect a birdie-fest as the weather looks great for the weekend, and the real defense to this course is the potential for coastal winds. Birdies and eagles should come in bunches this week across the 7,017-yard track, creating plenty of drama throughout the tournament.
As I dive in to look for players that catch my eye in a week like this, I will start with those that have shown success on coastal tracks. All of these courses seem to really bring similar players to the forefront as the paspalum putting surfaces, which are typically set to run slower than a normal TOUR event due to the wind factors.
We often see players consistently contend in these types of set ups, and they give us a nice narrow group to consider in these weeks and it puts a little more emphasis on prior course history.
Now that we’ve got all of that out of the way, let’s roll right into my best bets for the week.
Click here for the full list of odds
|Harold Varner III||+6000|
|Charles Howell III||+12500|
|Andrew D. Putnam||+20000|
|J. J. Spaun||+20000|
|Juan Diego Fernandez||+50000|
|Samuel Del Val||+50000|
|Juan Carlos Benitez||+50000|
Odds via PointsBet as of Monday morning.
Tony Finau (+3000)
As the odds settled in this week, there were plenty of names that drifted into areas that we would be happy to get in an extremely strong field in the middle of the season, much less in a fall swing event.
Tony Finau was one of those, as he became a near auto-bet for me at +3000 on FanDuel. This number is just too long for a player like Finau in this field while showing good form and some strong course history.
Finau’s first win came at another coastal tournament a number of years ago in Puerto Rico, which ironically was the only win for Hovland prior to last year’s Mayakoba victory. We also saw Finau get his elusive second victory in the playoffs at the Northern Trust, which I believe will free him up for more wins this year.
Everything fits here for Finau on a course he posted a T-8 last year, and has shown comfort on this style of track. I expect he will bounce back from the nearly six shots he lost putting at the CJ CUP a few weeks ago and if he can maintain his tee-to-green play that had him gain 5.6 shots on that field, we have a steal.
Carlos Ortiz (+8000)
I’d make the argument that my favorite and maybe top play of the week could be with Carlos Ortiz. We are getting some nice longshot odds on a player that has proven to really love this course, with back to back top-eight finishes including runner-up in 2019.
Ortiz also carries into the week some really sharp form as he has gained more than four shots ball striking in each of his last two events, which included the strong field at the CJ CUP where he gained 5.7 shots in that metric on his way to a top-25 finish.
Ortiz has shown an ability to play well during this time of year throughout multiple seasons, capping it off with his first career win last fall at the Houston Open. He now has that experience to lean back on as he plays as a crowd favorite in his native Mexico this week seeking his second career victory.
Everything lines up really well for Ortiz to be in the mix this week, and we know he has the ability to come through in the clutch, which is all we can ask for at +8000.
Pat Perez — Top 10 (+750)
There are few things more reliable in life than Pat Perez’s results on paspalum greens around coastal courses. He has been so consistent that he has earned an affectionate distinction in the golf betting community as the “Prince of Paspalum,” and that may be reason enough by itself to have him on the card this week.
Perez has top-eight finishes in three of his last five trips to this event, including a win in 2016. He hasn’t missed the cut in any of those tournaments, and always seems to put his best foot forward at this event.
BetMGM is giving us some inflated top-10 odds compared to the rest of the market, and they are my preferred site for bets of this kind as they pay out all ties in full. I’m in on the Prince at +750 to be in the top 10 this week as he comes back to a course that clearly fits his eye.
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