3M Open 2022: Odds, Picks, Predictions for Sahith Theegala, 3 More

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The golf world was treated to an all-time major championship as Cameron Smith won the 150th Open Championship at St. Andrews. This week, the PGA TOUR heads to TPC Twin Cities to play the 3M Open for the fourth consecutive year.

An Arnold Palmer design, TPC Twin Cities is a 7,431-yard par 71. The course is extremely flat throughout and features Bentgrass greens. The fairways are easier to hit than TOUR average, but 13 of the 18 holes do have water hazards in play.

The 3M Open will play host to 156 golfers this week with the top 65 players and ties making the weekend. Some notable golfers making the trip to Minnesota include Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, and Davis Riley.

Past Winners at 3M Open

• 2021: Cameron Champ (-15)
• 2020: Michael Thompson (-19)
• 2019: Matthew Wolff (-21)

5 Key Stats For TPC Twin Cities

Let's take a look at five key metrics for TPC Twin Cities to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Off The Tee

In 2019, we saw two of the longest drivers in the game in Matthew Wolff and Bryson DeChambeau go at it down the stretch at TPC Twin Cities, showing that distance is a major factor. Last year, one of the longest hitters in the game, Cameron Champ, hoisted the trophy.  With plenty of hazards in play, a total off the tee game will be paramount.

SG: OTT Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Brendan Steele (+23.9) (+3500)
2. Tony Finau (+19.2) (+1100)
3. Cameron Champ (+18.2) (+3500)
4. Paul Barjon (+17.8) (+35000)
5. Emiliano Grillo (+16.3) (+6500)

2. Strokes Gained: Approach

In 2020, ball strikers were all over the leaderboard at TPC Twin Cities. The 3M open will require sharp iron play, as evidenced by Michael Thompson's +7.4 strokes gained on approach in his victory.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Brendan Steele (+21.2) (+3500)
2. Davis Riley (+20.6) (+2200)
3. Hideki Matsuyama (+28.8) (+1800)
4. Tony Finau (+16.4) (+1100)
5. Adam Svensson (+15.9) (+4500)

3. Birdie or Better: Gained

The green in regulation percentage at TPC Twin Cities is a good deal higher than TOUR average. Making pars isn't going to be enough to get it done at the 3M Open. I expect ball strikers and birdie makers to hold a large share of the win equity this week.

Birdie or Better: Gained Past 24 rounds:

1. Stewart Cink (+19.4) (+10000)
2. Adam Svensson (+18.8) (+3500)
3. Nick Hardy (+17.1) (+4500)
4. J.T. Poston (+16.7) (+4000)
5. Davis Riley (+16.7) (+2200)

4. Par 4: 450-500

The most common par-4 distance on the course will be from 450-500. Golfers who play these holes well should separate themselves on the leaderboard in Minnesota.

Par 4: 450-500 Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Tony Finau (+15.8) (+1100)
2. James Hahn (+12.1) (+15000)
3. Nick Hardy (+11.4) (+4500)
4. Sungjae Im (+11.3) (+1600)
5. Stewart Cink (+10.6) (+10000)

5. Opportunities Gained

Opportunities gained is a similar stat to birdie or better but doesn't include whether or not the golfer converted the putt for birdie.

Michael Thompson had a great putting week in 2020, gaining 7.3 strokes with the flat stick. Cam Champ got the putter rolling as well as he gained 8.5 strokes putting in his victory. Louis Oosthuizen came in second and gained fewer than a stroke putting. 2019 was similar as Wolff and Morikawa both gained fewer than 1.0 stroke putting that week.

Golfers will need to give themselves as many birdie putts as possible to get into contention this week.

Opportunities Gained Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Hideki Matsuyama (+21.2) (+1800)
2. Brendan Steele (+19.4) (+3500)
3. Davis Riley (+17.8) (+2200)
4. Tony Finau (+15.3) (+1100)
5. Austin Smotherman (+15.2) (+8000)

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The 3M Open Model Rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: OTT (26%), SG: Approach (24%), Birdie or Better (20%), Opportunities Gained (15%), and Par 4: 450-500 (15%)

1. Tony Finau (+1100)
2. Hideki Matsuyama (+1800)
3. Brendan Steele (+3500)
4. Davis Riley (+2200)
5. J.T. Poston (+4000)
6. Adam Svensson (+3500)
7. Chris Gotterup (+4500)
8. Austin Smotherman (+8000)
9. Sahith Theegala (+2200)
10. Cameron Davis (+2500)

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2022 3M Open Outright Bets

Cameron Davis (+2500, BetRivers)

The golf world was just treated to a dazzling performance by an Australian at the Open Championship, and perhaps another Australian can put on a show at TPC Twin Cities, albeit on a much smaller stage.

Cameron Davis has a dream skill set for the golf course. He hits the ball a long way and can make birdies in bunches. He also loves putting on Bentgrass greens, which is statistically his preferred putting surface by a large margin. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 12th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and sixth in the field in Birdie or Better Gained.

Aside from the ideal course fit, the 27-year-old is also in spectacular form. He's coming off of back-to-back top-eight finishes and was fantastic statistically at the John Deere Classic. He gained 4.7 strokes off the tee and 4.4 strokes on approach, which would certainly do the trick at the 3M Open.

Sahith Theegala (+2500, BetMGM)

In terms of potential, I don't think there are too many players in this field who will be better than Sahith Theegala when all is said and done. The 2020 Haskins Award winner hits the ball long off the tee, which has been a major benefit for winners at TPC Twin Cities in the past.

Theegala has also built up some recent scar tissue that should be beneficial for his chances this week. At the Travelers Championship, he finished in second place after a devastating bunker shot on the 18th hole that cost him the tournament.

Being in that position in an incredibly strong field can only make him a better player going forward. The following week, Theegala bounced back immediately and gained 9.8 strokes from tee to green and finished in 16th at the John Deere Classic.

I believe Theegala is going to win a TOUR event in the near future. The field this week is one of the weakest we've seen of late, so he should have the talent to get it done at TPC Twin Cities.

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Dylan Frittelli (+6500, WynnBet)

Dylan Frittelli comes to Minnesota in fairly good form. He played well during his trip across the pond and capped it off with a T-28 finish at the Open Championship.

The South African is a boom-or-bust player, but that is in large part what I am targeting this week. His finishes are far from consistent but on the weeks he plays well, he tends to linger in contention until the end. He also has the ability to go low when he starts to feel confident with the putter. In 2019, he won the John Deere Classic by firing a final round 64 to finish the tournament at -21. If this year's edition of the 3M turns into a birdie-fest, he is well suited to keep pace.

Last year, we saw two South Africans in the top three of the leaderboard (Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel). If he can avoid the plethora of water hazards on the course, Frittelli has the fire power to contend at TPC Twin Cities.

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Troy Merritt (+8000, BetMGM)

To say Troy Merritt is familiar with Minnesota golf would be an understatement. Merritt moved to Minnesota in High School and played high school golf at Spring Lake Park. He used to watch the 3M Championship in person (back when it was a Champions Tour event), and he even played the course multiple times as a high school kid.

Merritt will have plenty of friends and family at the event, but more importantly, he knows how to play this style of golf course.

"Spent plenty of years up here playing these style of golf courses, and hopefully we can use that to our advantage this weekend," Merritt said in 2021.

Aside from the familiarity, the 36-year-old has played some solid golf at TPC Twin Cities as a professional. Merritt finished in seventh place at the course in 2019 and had another strong showing in 2021. His finish wasn't spectacular, but he showed he could go low on the course as he was the co-leader after the first round with Rickie Fowler and Jhonnatan Vegas.

The two-time PGA TOUR winner's form coming into the event is nothing special, although he did finish 30th and gain 7.5 strokes on approach at the Genesis Scottish Open, but he wasn't in great form last year either. He fired the first round 7-under 64 after posting back-to-back missed cuts in his past two starts.

With a few events under his belt at TPC Twin Cities as a professional, perhaps some home cooking could propel him to his third PGA TOUR victory this week in Minnesota.