2022 Memorial Tournament FRL Odds & Picks: Hideki Matsuyama, 3 More Players to Bet for First-Round Leader

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Historically at Muirfield Village, there hasn't been a major advantage for either morning or afternoon starters in terms of the first-round leader market at the Memorial Tournament. During the past 10 years of the event, there has been a 50-50 split of first-round leaders to come from AM and PM starting times.

When looking at the wind forecast in Fort Worth for Thursday's first round, it appears that the wind may pick up slightly in the afternoon. But, as of now it's nothing significant enough to sway me from PM starters.

2022 Memorial Tournament FRL Picks

Hideki Matsuyama +3500

The way to go low at Muirfield Village is to lock-in on approach. Two starts ago at the Byron Nelson, Hideki Matsuyama led the field in approach by almost a full shot. His strong iron performance was squarely in line with what we've seen from Matsuyama all season long. I expect it to continue.

Matsuyama tends to start fast when he finds his rhythm in an event. He ranks eighth in the field in Strokes Gained: Total in the first round.

Gary Woodland (+7000)

Woodland has been a difficult player to get right this season. In events where it would seem that everything lines up for him to play well, he disappoints. In events for which he doesn’t seem to be a great fit, he surprises. This week, he’s a strong candidate to be the latter.

The 38-year-old has a strong course history at Muirfield Village, finishing fourth in 2016 and cracking the top 5 in the Workday Charity Open in 2020. He was excellent at the Honda Classic earlier this year, which is also a Jack Nicklaus design.

It’s been an up-and-down year for Woodland, but he has a chance to feast on the par 5’s at Muirfield and get off to a fast start in Round 1.

Jason Day (+7000)

There’s always a chance that the Jason Day who has struggled for the last several years on TOUR will show up to Muirfield Village this week. There’s also a chance that we see the version of Jason Day that posted a 7-under 63 to claim the first-round lead at the Wells Fargo Championship last month.

Day has plenty of familiarity with Muirfield Village, and while his results at the course haven’t been spectacular, his last two starts have been exceptional. He finished seventh at the 2020 Workday Charity Open and finished fourth at the Memorial Tournament the following week.

The tougher set-up should suit Day, whose around-the-green game and putting has come around of late. Day has  gained strokes around the green in four consecutive events and has gained strokes putting in two consecutive events.

Adam Long (+11000)

Adam Long had a hot iron week last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge, which bodes well given the added emphasis of iron play at Muirfield Village. Long gained 6.0 strokes on approach at Colonial, which was the second-best Strokes Gained: Approach performance of his career.

The 34-year-old has been solid at Muirfield Village throughout his career and had his best finish-to-date (26th) in last year’s Memorial Tournament. It will take a great putting round from a player like Long to capture the first-round lead this week, but that’s something he’s shown he’s capable of in the past. Since 2019, Long has gained more than four strokes putting in an event on 10 occasions.

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