2022 Memorial Tournament Prop Picks: Bets for Mito Pereira, Matt Fitzpatrick at Muirfield Village

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Usually, one of golf’s best reigns supreme at the Memorial Tournament. It’s a challenging course designed by Jack Nicklaus to test players, with thick rough and fast greens, making tee-to-green play especially important.

Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I’ve found value in backing two players in the props market this week at Muirfield Village. Both have thrived this season and should play well at a course that rewards strong ball-strikers.

Let’s get to it.

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2022 Memorial Tournament Betting Picks

Mito Pereira — Top 20 (+150)

Pereira persevered at Charles Schwab last week following the heartbreak down the stretch at the PGA Championship.

His seventh-place finish at Colonial marked the eighth time in his last nine starts that he has finished inside the top 30. During this stretch, the Chilean has been absolutely dialed in with his ball striking. He ranks top 10 in this stacked field in both Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Approach over the last 24 rounds, contributing to his eye popping 52.8 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in his last nine events.

Muirfield Village demands accuracy both off the putting surface and into its heavily guarded greens. He’s hit 64% of his fairways, and 72% of his greens in regulation since he arrived on TOUR in July of last year. This type of consistency is exactly what it will take to contend this week on the wonderful Nicklaus design.

On the heels of back-to-back top-10 performances, Pereira heads into this week with a ton of momentum, and gets to play a course that fits his skill set perfectly. I love his chances at cracking the top 20 this week.

Matthew Fitzpatrick — Top 20 (-110)

Fitzpatrick has played in nine total events so far in 2022, and he has finished in the top 20 in seven of them. This remarkable consistency can be attributed to his grind it out style of play that relies on hitting fairways and limiting big mistakes.

Some may argue that this style of golf comes with limited upside, and could explain why he has never won on the PGA TOUR. That’s the beauty of this bet, though. We don’t need him to win.

In fact, this style of play is exactly the type of golf that Muirfield Village will demand. With no shortage of trouble lurking just off of these tree lined fairways, accuracy will be paramount. Fitzpatrick has hit 66% of his fairways over the last 12 months, which will give him plenty of great looks into the heavily defended greens. He ranks top 20 in this field in strokes gained off the tee, around the green, and putting over the last 24 rounds.

Fitzpatrick fits the mold of the consistent all around player that I’m looking for this week to fill up my betting card. I think he adds another top 20 to his rock solid 2022 campaign.

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