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Mexico Open 2022 First Round Leader Odds & Picks: Bet Emiliano Grillo, 3 More for FRL

Mexico Open 2022 First Round Leader Odds & Picks: Bet Emiliano Grillo, 3 More for FRL article feature image
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Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty Images. Pictured: Emiliano Grillo.

Click arrow to expand 2022 Mexico Open odds via PointsBet

2022 Mexico Open Odds

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Jon Rahm +450
Abraham Ancer +1700
Gary Woodland +2000
Tony Finau +2000
Kevin Na +2500
Aaron Wise +3000
Cameron Champ +3000
Cameron Tringale +3000
Patrick Reed +3000
Sebastian Munoz +3000
Chris Kirk +3500
Aaron Rai +5000
Adam Long +5000
Brendon Todd +5000
Charles Howell III +5000
Doug Ghim +5000
Kevin Streelman +5000
Matt Jones +5000
Russell Knox +5000
Carlos Ortiz +6000
Cheng-Tsung Pan +6000
Davis Riley +6000
Mark Hubbard +6000
Sahith Theegala +6000
Alex Smalley +6600
Lanto Griffin +6600
Taylor Moore +6600
Anirban Lahiri +7000
Chad Ramey +7000
Scott Stallings +7000
David Lipsky +8000
JT Poston +8000
Pat Perez +8000
Patrick Rodgers +8000
Wyndham Clark +8000
Greyson Sigg +9000
Kramer Hickok +9000
Nate Lashley +9000
Tyler Duncan +9000
Adam Svensson +10000
Austin Smotherman +10000
Brandon Wu +10000
Brian Stuard +10000
Chase Seiffert +10000
Hank Lebioda +10000
Joseph Bramlett +10000
Michael Thompson +10000
Nick Taylor +10000
Scott Piercy +10000
Vaughn Taylor +10000
Vincent Whaley +10000
Adam Schenk +12500
Andrew D. Putnam +12500
Brice Garnett +12500
Danny Lee +12500
Dylan Wu +12500
Emiliano Grillo +12500
Graeme McDowell +12500
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +12500
Peter Uihlein +12500
Rafael Cabrera Bello +12500
Robert Streb +12500
Ryan Armour +12500
Andrew Novak +15000
Ben Griffin +15000
Ben Martin +15000
Callum Tarren +15000
Chez Reavie +15000
James Hahn +15000
John Huh +15000
Justin Lower +15000
Kurt Kitayama +15000
Lee Hodges +15000
Matt Wallace +15000
Peter Malnati +15000
Roger Sloan +15000
Trey Mullinax +15000
Aaron Baddeley +20000
Bill Haas +20000
Bo Hoag +20000
Camilo Villegas +20000
Hayden Buckley +20000
Jason Dufner +20000
Kevin Tway +20000
Luke Donald +20000
Patrick Flavin +20000
Stephan Jaeger +20000
Ben Kohles +25000
Brandon Hagy +25000
Curtis Thompson +25000
Paul Barjon +25000
Richy Werenski +25000
Satoshi Kodaira +25000
Scott Brown +25000
Scott Gutschewski +25000
Seung-yul Noh +25000
Sung Kang +25000
Wesley Bryan +25000
Bryson Nimmer +30000
David Skinns +30000
Fabian Gomez +30000
Jared Wolfe +30000
Jonathan Byrd +30000
Max McGreevy +30000
Seth Reeves +30000
Austin Cook +35000
Michael Gligic +35000
Ryan Blaum +35000
Brett Drewitt +40000
David Hearn +40000
David Lingmerth +40000
Grayson Murray +40000
Joshua Creel +40000
Robert Garrigus +40000
Roberto Diaz +40000
Sang-Moon Bae +40000
Tommy Gainey +40000
Alvaro Ortiz +50000
Armando Favela +50000
Ben Crane +50000
Ben Willman +50000
Bo Van Pelt +50000
D.J. Trahan +50000
Darren Andrew Points +50000
Dawie Van Der Walt +50000
Greg Chalmers +50000
Isidro Benitez +50000
Jeffrey Kang +50000
Jim Knous +50000
Johnson Wagner +50000
Jonas Blixt +50000
Juan Cristobal Islas +50000
Kelly Kraft +50000
Manuel Inman +50000
Mark Hensby +50000
Martin Trainer +50000
Matt Every +50000
Ricky Barnes +50000
Santiago de la Fuente +50000
Turk Pettit +50000
Arjun Atwal +50000
Derek Ernst +50000
Richard S. Johnson +50000

When examining the first-round leader market for the Mexico Open, the first factor that should be considered is whether or not there is a morning/afternoon wave advantage.

In my conversation with tournament director Rodrigo Suarez Gilly, he was pretty adamant that the wind would pick up each day in the afternoon.

Currently, it looks like we will get about 8-10 mph of wind later in the day. While that isn’t an extreme amount of wind, I do expect there to be a fairly significant wave advantage on Thursday with the early starters having the advantage. That advantage should be leveled out after Friday’s round but for the first-round leader market it should be relevant. I would be sure to have at least a few AM starters on your FRL card.

I typically look to back longshots who I think fit the course well, and in many cases the same players I’ve already bet to win if they are close to triple-digit odds. Luckily, a few of my outright picks are morning starters on Thursday, so it makes perfect sense to go after them in both markets.

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Mexico Open First Round Leader Selections

Anirban Lahiri (+7000)

Lahiri is my favorite outright bet on the board, but his lack of history in converting hot starts to wins on the PGA TOUR, it makes plenty of sense to supplement that outright bet with an FRL bet, as well.

Lahiri ranks fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on paspalum in his past 24 rounds. He has been playing on paspalum for a good deal of his career, including in a win at TPC Kuala Lumpur at the Indian Open.

Lahiri showed us at this year’s PLAYERS Championship that he has the type of game that can start strong and continue to make birdies early in the tournament.

Danny Lee (+9000)

Danny Lee is the perfect golfer for an FRL bet. He’s the type of guy when you check the leaderboard on Thursday, he may be either 6-under or 6-over through his first seven holes. That volatility is what makes Lee such an intriguing player to bet in this market.

Lee also happens to be an excellent fit for Vidanta Vallarta. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks first in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on paspalum and fourth in the field in Birdie or Better Gained in his past 50 rounds.

Lee has an 8:07 a.m. tee time and is a good candidate to get out of the gates in a hurry.

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Emiliano Grillo (+9000)

There’s no way to sugarcoat this: Emiliano Grillo has been awful this season. Truth be told, if he hadn’t been, he would most likely be priced in the 30-1 range this week.

Throughout his career, the 29-year-old has played far and away his best golf on coastal resort-type courses similar to Vidanta Vallarta. I don’t necessarily trust Grillo to have it going for all four rounds this week, but he’s certainly capable of a low round at a course where he should be incredibly comfortable.

Brice Garnett (+12500)

Garnett has five top-10 finishes on paspalum since 2018 including a win at the 2018 Corales Championship. If there is anyone who can find form quickly on paspalum greens, it’s the 38-year-old.

Garnett’s tie for seventh-place finish at last month’s Puerto Rico open shows that he still has what it takes to go low for a round and he has a favorable tee time at 7:56 a.m.

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