2022 Mexico Open Odds, Picks, Predictions: Anirban Lahiri Among 3 Course Fits at Vidanta Vallarta

The PGA TOUR heads to beautiful Puerto Vallarta to play the first ever Mexico Open.

The Greg Norman-designed Vidanta Vallarta is a par-71 measuring 7,456 yards. The course was recently extended by over 250 yards to make it PGA TOUR ready, and there were nine new tee boxes and 106 new bunkers added to stiffen the test for the best players in the world.

The course features three par 5s and the par-4 seventh will be drivable for the longer hitters, but golfers will have to risk taking on some water if they want to go for it.

The field this week will consist of 153 players, including a PGA TOUR-record 10 Mexican golfers in the field, including Carlos Ortiz who is sponsored by Vidanta. Some other notables teeing it up this week include Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed, Tony Finau, Abraham Ancer, Kevin Na and Gary Woodland.

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5 Key Stats For Vidanta Villarta

Let's take a look at five key metrics for Vidanta Vallarta to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

1. Driving Distance

At almost 7,500 yards, Vidanta Villarta is a long par 71. The rough shouldn't be much of a factor this week, which gives the advantage to the long hitters in the field.

Total Driving Distance Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Cameron Champ (+20.4) (+7000)
2. Wyndham Clark (+19.6) (+10000)
3. Jon Rahm (+16.8) (+500)
4. Trey Mullinax (+16.2) (+20000)
5. Joseph Bramlett (+16.1) (+15000)

2. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

With the course playing long and greens likely being receptive, elite ball strikers should have an advantage more so than a good short game and strong putting.

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Jon Rahm (+49.3) (+500)
2. Sebastian Munoz (+25.8) (+3500)
3. Chris Kirk (+25.2) (+3000)
4. Austin Smotherman (+24.9) (+15000)
5. Tony Finau (+21.9) (+2200)

3. Strokes Gained: Total Paspalum

We've seen similar players pop up time and time again on courses that feature paspalum. It's a surface that players don't see very often on TOUR, and positive experience on the grass type should provide a major advantage in Mexico this week.

SG: TOT Paspalum over past 24 rounds:

1. Danny Lee (+38.8) (+15000)
2. Abraham Ancer (+37.8) (+2200)
3. Nate Lashley (+37.7) (+11000)
4. Anirban Lahiri (+37.3) (+6000)
5. Adam Long (+33.7) (+7500)

4. Strokes Gained: Total in Windy Conditions

I spoke with Tournament Executive Director Rodrigo Suarez Gilly this week, who said he expects the afternoons to get extremely windy all week. This will provide golfers who excel in the wind a major advantage.

SG: TOT in Windy Conditions Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Jon Rahm (+55.4) (+500)
2. Cameron Tringale (+35.3) (+3000)
3. Patrick Rodgers (+26.0) (+12500)
4. Lanto Griffin (+25.0) (+6600)
5. Mark Hubbard (+23.0) (+7000)

5. Opportunities Gained

For what it's worth, Suarez Gilly predicted the winning score to be in the range of 18-under this week. Golfers will have to make plenty of birdies to keep up, and paspalum greens typically help out golfers who aren't the best putters. Therefore, it makes sense to target the players who give themselves the most opportunities from 15 feet and in.

Opportunities Gained over past 24 rounds

1. Jon Rahm (+31.9) (+500)
2. Emiliano Grillo (+20.8) (+15000)
3. Daniel Berger (+20.5) (+1400)
4. Chad Ramey (+19.7) (+7000)
5. Trey Mullinax (+18.4) (+20000)

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The Mexico Open at Vidanta Model Rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — Driving Distance (22%), SG: Ball Striking (22%), SG: Paspalum (18.7%), SG: Windy Conditions (18.7%) and Opportunities Gained (18.7%)

1. Jon Rahm (+500)
2. Gary Woodland (+2500)
3. Alex Smalley (+10000)
4. Aaron Wise (+3500)
5. Russell Knox (+6000)
6. James Hahn (+17500)
7. Paul Barjon (+20000)
8. Patrick Rodgers (+12500)
9. Tony Finau (+2200)
10. Emiliano Grillo (+15000)

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2022 RBC Mexico Open at Vidanta Best Bets

Anirban Lahiri (+8000, BetMGM)

One important angle that could be used in finding value in Mexico this week is targeting golfers who have a history of performing well on paspalum fairways and greens. Anirban Lahiri ranks fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Paspalum in his past 24 rounds, but his fantastic run of the surface dates back even further.

Lahiri hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR, but he has a couple of wins on the Asian Tour, which features many of the same style courses with paspalum fairways and greens. His victories have come at the Malaysian Open, which was played at CIMB Classic host TPC Kuala Lumpur.

The 34-year-old has posted some good results at the CIMB, including in 2016 when he had the 54-hole lead but finished in third behind Justin Thomas and Hidedki Matsuyama. Luckily for Lahiri, the field this week won't feature players like that outside of Rahm.

Lahiri has also had a great deal of success at El Camaleón Golf Club, which hosts the Mayakoba Classic in the fall. Lahiri has shown up on the Mayakoba leaderboard with a 10th-place finish in 2018 and 14th-place finish in 2017.

Just last month, Lahiri finished second at the PLAYERS Championship, which was only one stroke behind winner Cameron Smith. He shot 3-under par on Sunday, which I found to be incredibly impressive considering the circumstances.

If Lahiri finds himself in contention this week, he should be much more equipped to earn his first PGA TOUR victory.

Brandon Wu (+13000, DraftKings)

As referenced earlier, golfers with history on courses that feature Paspalum are a good place to start this week. Naturally, the first place to look should be how a golfer performed at both Corales and the Puerto Rico Open this season, both courses have a lot of similarities and have paspalum greens. The 25-year-old Wu finished 28th at Corales and third in Puerto Rico last month.

Wu's success on the aforementioned tracks wasn't just a hot stretch. The Stanford product also finished seventh in Puerto Rico in 2021, so there is something about the course fit that he's taking a liking to.

Wu is a talented player who won the 2020 Korn Ferry Tour Championship by beating out a good deal of talented young players. With a weak field in Mexico, I believe he is more than capable if he gets in the mix.

Brice Garnett (+25000, DraftKings)

A third member of "team paspalum" is Brice Garnett, and his paspalum success is undeniably the most impressive of them all. The 38-year-old has five top-10 finishes on Paspalum since 2018 including a win at the 2018 Corales Championship. His recent form leaves much to be desired, but he did finish in seventh place at last month's Puerto Rico Open.

In a typical week, it's unlikely I'd bet Garnett to win outright but this is the right price in the right field to take a shot on him.

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