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2022 PLAYERS Championship Odds, Picks: Target Jordan Spieth, Paul Casey in Matchups

2022 PLAYERS Championship Odds, Picks: Target Jordan Spieth, Paul Casey in Matchups article feature image
Credit:

Michael Owens/Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Spieth.

  • With the world's elite golfers at THE PLAYERS Championship this week, there are some tasty matchup bets available.
  • Using his successful model, Bryan Berryman has identified two matchups with value for bettors this week.
  • Check out Berryman's picks and breakdowns below for THE PLAYERS at TPC Sawgrass.
Click arrow to expand 2022 PLAYERS Championship odds via PointsBet

2022 PLAYERS Championship Odds

Golfer Odds
Jon Rahm +1200
Justin Thomas +1400
Collin Morikawa +1800
Patrick Cantlay +2000
Rory McIlroy +2000
Viktor Hovland +2000
Daniel Berger +2500
Scottie Scheffler +2800
Hideki Matsuyama +3000
Cameron Smith +3300
Matthew Fitzpatrick +3300
Xander Schauffele +3300
Dustin Johnson +3500
Im Sung-jae +4000
Shane Lowry +4000
Brooks Koepka +4500
Adam Scott +5000
Billy Horschel +5000
Corey Conners +5000
Joaquin Niemann +5000
Jordan Spieth +5000
Louis Oosthuizen +5000
Sam Burns +5000
Tyrrell Hatton +5000
Will Zalatoris +5000
Russell Henley +6000
Si Woo Kim +6000
Talor Gooch +6000
Abraham Ancer +6600
Gary Woodland +6600
Sergio Garcia +6600
Tony Finau +6600
Webb Simpson +6600
Chris Kirk +7000
Max Homa +7000
Paul Casey +7000
Jason Day +8000
Keegan Bradley +8000
Marc Leishman +8000
Tom Hoge +8000
Tommy Fleetwood +8000
Cameron Young +9000
Jason Kokrak +9000
Alexander Noren +10000
Brian Harman +10000
Bubba Watson +10000
Cameron Tringale +10000
Justin Rose +10000
Sebastian Munoz +10000
Thomas Pieters +10000
Aaron Wise +12500
Harold Varner III +12500
Ian Poulter +12500
Keith Mitchell +12500
Kevin Kisner +12500
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +12500
Lee Westwood +12500
Luke List +12500
Maverick McNealy +12500
Patrick Reed +12500
Russell Knox +12500
Seamus Power +12500
Cheng-Tsung Pan +15000
Denny McCarthy +15000
Erik Van Rooyen +15000
Jhonattan Vegas +15000
Lanto Griffin +15000
Lucas Herbert +15000
Mackenzie Hughes +15000
Martin Laird +15000
Matt Jones +15000
Matthew Wolff +15000
Mito Guillermo Pereira +15000
Patton Kizzire +15000
Ryan Palmer +15000
Taylor Moore +17500
Adam Hadwin +20000
Andrew D. Putnam +20000
Beau Hossler +20000
Brendan Steele +20000
Brendon Todd +20000
Cameron Champ +20000
Cameron Davis +20000
Charley Hoffman +20000
Doug Ghim +20000
Dylan Frittelli +20000
Emiliano Grillo +20000
Francesco Molinari +20000
Joel Dahmen +20000
Matt Kuchar +20000
Sahith Theegala +20000
Sepp Straka +20000
Taylor Pendrith +20000
Branden Grace +25000
Carlos Ortiz +25000
Chez Reavie +25000
Garrick Higgo +25000
Henrik Stenson +25000
J. J. Spaun +25000
JT Poston +25000
Lucas Glover +25000
Matt Wallace +25000
Matthew NeSmith +25000
Pat Perez +25000
Ryan Brehm +25000
Troy Merritt +25000
Wyndham Clark +25000
Zach Johnson +25000
Adam Long +30000
Henrik Norlander +30000
Kevin Streelman +30000
Kramer Hickok +30000
Lee Hodges +30000
Nick Watney +30000
Stewart Cink +30000
Adam Schenk +35000
Brandt Snedeker +35000
Brian Stuard +35000
Charl Schwartzel +35000
Doc Redman +35000
Harry Higgs +35000
Hudson Swafford +35000
Kevin Tway +35000
Kyle Stanley +35000
Sam Ryder +35000
Hayden Buckley +40000
James Hahn +40000
Roger Sloan +40000
Scott Piercy +40000
Scott Stallings +40000
Anirban Lahiri +50000
Brandon Hagy +50000
Brian Gay +50000
Brice Garnett +50000
Chesson Hadley +50000
Danny Lee +50000
Hank Lebioda +50000
Jimmy Walker +50000
Joseph Bramlett +50000
Peter Malnati +50000
Richy Werenski +50000
Robert Streb +50000
Stephan Jaeger +50000
Tyler McCumber +50000

 


We hit on our lone matchup last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, as Chris Kirk cruised to a seven-shot victory over Si Woo Kim at Bay Hill. We touched on Kirk’s recent stretch of great play and excellent history at Bay Hill as reasons to believe he would best Kim.

We’ll look to continue the momentum this week for one of my favorite events of the year: THE PLAYERS Championship.

For those new to the article, welcome! Every week, I use Strokes Gained data, course history and a multitude of other data points to handicap the matchups offered by both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I simulate each available matchup 10,000 times to determine each golfer’s probability of winning. Using that winning percentage, I am able to set my own line for every matchup, and compare it against what the books are offering.

The goal is to find value in the current betting lines and give ourselves a small edge over and over to churn out profit throughout the course of the year. I picked matchups at a 61% clip for the 2020-21 PGA TOUR season and hope to continue that momentum this season.

Below, I have outlined the matchups that showed the most value in my simulations this week for the PLAYERS Championship. For each matchup, I provide the current line, what my simulations set the line at and why I believe it is a profitable bet.

Let’s get to it.

Jordan Spieth (+100) over Tommy Fleetwood (DraftKings)

My line: -122

I’d consider this pick as more of a fade of Fleetwood than a ringing endorsement of Spieth. Fleetwood has really been struggling for the better part of a calendar year, with only one top-10 finish on the PGA TOUR since March 2021.

The consistent play from tee to green that we grew accustomed to from Fleetwood has fallen off sharply in recent months. He ranks 69th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in this field over the last 50 rounds and 92nd over the last 12 rounds.

Spieth, on the other hand has six top-10 finishes over the past year and has shown some steady ball-striking improvement of late. He ranks 22nd in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 12 rounds.

My model ranks Fleetwood as the 80th-best player in this field, with Spieth at No. 47. So again, this isn’t a ringing endorsement of the American in this matchup, but my model gives a strong enough edge that I’ll be backing him against Fleetwood.

Bet Jordan Spieth at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.

Paul Casey (-102) over Si Woo Kim (FanDuel)

My line: -132

While both Casey and Kim have had extremely successful PGA TOUR careers, I don’t think there’s any doubt as to who the better (and more consistent) player is.

Casey has been one of the game’s most consistent ball strikers for quite some time. He ranks 7th in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 100 rounds and 11th over the last 24.

In those time frames, Kim ranks 92nd and 95th in that category.

This matchup won’t be a walk in the park for Casey, though, given Kim’s recent results and history at TPC Sawgrass. Si Woo has made the cut in nine straight events and in all five of his starts at THE PLAYERS, including his win back in 2017.

Still, though, my model weighs a player’s entire body of work. Casey is the better player, and I’ll be backing his ball-striking consistency to outperform Kim’s recent stretch of play in this matchup.

Bet Paul Casey at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.

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