2022 PLAYERS Championship Sunday Odds & Picks: Back These 2 Longshots, Billy Horschel
David Cannon/Getty Images. Pictured: Billy Horschel.
Click arrow to expand 2022 PLAYERS Championship odds via PointsBet
2022 PLAYERS Championship Odds
|Harold Varner III||+2800|
|Erik Van Rooyen||+20000|
|Mito Guillermo Pereira||+25000|
The 2022 PLAYERS Championship finally crawled into Round 2 on Saturday afternoon, more than 24 hours after they stopped on Friday due to unplayable conditions. Players were finally relieved of the rain that marred the first two days of the tournament, but in its place were ridiculously high winds that wreaked havoc on players.
It was the original evening/afternoon wave that got the worst of the conditions on Saturday, as most of them played better than 18 holes in the gale force winds. Overall, they played the second round to an average score of 3.44 shots over par, leaving the original first round leaders from Thursday morning better than two shots ahead of that entire wave players.
Sunday will be anything but a typical Day 4 on TOUR since many players will be teeing off for their second round of this tournament. The weather will be the big story once again as it will definitely be cold for this area of the country and there is potential for wind to be a factor once again.
Sunday may not feature the winds we saw on Saturday, but some forecasts still have it steadily in the upper teens throughout the morning. If that is the case, TPC Sawgrass will play difficultly again, especially as the greens begin to dry out.
My thought is that there is more opportunity for low scores on Sunday than there were on Saturday, which leaves us in position to chase some good value from this wave going into the morning. It is also fairly consistent that the third round will be the best playing conditions of the week and that can give us a chance to go at some of the players that are already in the clubhouse for Round 2.
I’m sticking with best bets after Saturday’s play since the Strokes Gained Data just has too many variables to be reliable. We’ve got a group set to hit the course where many of them haven’t hit a shot in the tournament in two days, compared to a group that just got brutalized by the wind for more than 18 holes on Saturday.
A couple of my buys will point out some of the outliers in each group, but an overall comparison doesn’t give us much to work with tonight.
It’s admittedly hard to find value going into Sunday because many of the players set to get into the meat of their second round, haven’t played in two days and during that time all of their odds have dropped significantly. It turned out that the +1400 on Jon Rahm after Thursday was a great value as he is better than half of that number now.
I still think this is the group most likely to produce the winner, but I’ll likely look down the board instead of buying for some of the shorter guys at the top.
Paul Casey +6600 (BetMGM)
I’ll start with Paul Casey for some value, as he really showed some grit in his opening round on Thursday after he triple bogeyed his opening hole. He bounced back from taking a penalty after his very first swing of the tournament and closed with a bogey-free back nine that included five birdies. It’s been a long time now since he ended his first round, but the momentum of closing his round with three straight birdies should carry through for the Englishman as he looks to climb up the board from his spot at 2-under par.
Casey is still one of the best ball strikers in the world when his game is on and he clearly found it a bit across his opening round. He is also a player that is experienced in wind and will be well suited for whatever conditions may be in store on Sunday morning.
I’m willing to go in on a player that lost 1.86 shots to the field on his very first swing of the day on Thursday but climbed his way back into the tournament and has plenty of upside at this price.
Aaron Wise +8000 (FanDuel)
I really thought we would get a win from Aaron Wise last fall, but he just couldn’t get it done. He still played really well and showed an ability to compete on a weekly basis at the top of the game when his game is in form. Wise lost that form a bit to start the new year, but he found his ball striking on the weekend at the Arnold Palmer and carried that into his first 20 holes at THE PLAYERS.
Late on Saturday, Wise opened his second round with consecutive birdies to get to 3-under on the week. He has been sharp again with his ball striking, and if Wise can get his putter going he could be a surprise contender across the next few rounds.
Wise really has a complete game tee to green and with these small and relatively easy greens we have seen some less than great putters, similar to him, not only contend, but win at TPC Sawgrass.
Billy Horschel — Top 10 +550 (BetMGM)
Much of the attention on Saturday was on the great rounds put together by Justin Thomas and Bubba Watson, but it was Billy Horschel who led in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He gained more than five shots on the field in that metric and gained in every category.
Horschel was particularly sharp with his ball striking, where he gained 2.6 strokes, and he closed by gaining shots on approach in 10 of his final 11 holes.
The former Florida Gator was one of the many casualties of the end of the first round at the famous par-3 17th. His triple bogey likely took him out of tournament contention, but he continues to play well off of his T2 finish at the Arnold Palmer and is well positioned to find a top finish this week at THE PLAYERS.