2022 Sony Open Odds, Picks: 3 Best Bets, Including Outrights & Prop for Corey Conners, More

It was a record-setting week at Kapalua as three players managed to break the single tournament scoring mark previously held by Ernie Els, but it was Cam Smith that came out above the rest with a remarkable 35-under performance. He was nearly flawless in some abnormally benign conditions at The Plantation Course, and he will now join a group of 23 players from the Tournament of Champions that will also tee it up this week at the Sony Open.

Smith leads the way in the odds market, as the former winner of this event enters the week carrying great form. Hideki Matsuyama is the other big name that will make the trip from Maui to Honolulu, as Bryson DeChambeau made a last minute change of plans and withdrew on Monday.

Other players, like Webb Simpson, will make their 2022 debut this week in the first full-field event of the season.

As I dive into the data for this week, it's very clear just how different these two Hawaiian courses are to start the year. Players will be coming over from hitting driver into huge fairways to now looking to dial it back off the tee with the hopes of staying in the short grass on the short Par 70 track at Waialae Country Club.

The players with success at this event have been the guys that are straight off the tee and accurate on approach, with the ability to get hot on the greens. We have a number of those in the field this week, and I'll look to dial in on those players in my best bets for the Sony Open.

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Best Bets

Corey Conners +2600

There was a better number available on Conners when the odds first opened, but DeChambeau's withdrawal saw it go down. However, getting +2600 is still solid for a guy I think will be in position to contend for the win this week.

Conners is a prototypical ball-striker who can be relied on to hit fairways and greens in bunches. His biggest issue is — and seemingly always will be — the short game, but he has found success in that aspect of his game at this event.

Two of Conners' best three putting performances of his career have come at Waialae Country Club, where he gained more than five shots with the flatstick. Unfortunately for the Canadian, he didn't have his best iron game those weeks, leaving him with a 12th and 39th-place finish.

Still, in his best result at the Sony Open, a third-place finish in 2019, he gained 2.2 strokes on the greens, which again reiterates that he just sees it well on the putting surfaces of this course.

His tee-to-green game is a perfect fit for this track, and if he can pair it with the strong putting he has shown in prior years, I think we may see Conners contend this week for his second TOUR win.

Bet Corey Conners at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.

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Denny McCarthy +8000

I went back and forth with a few longshot options this week, as I think there is plenty of value down the leaderboard in a field a bit light on star power. In looking back at prior winners and even top-5 finishers, there is a very apparent trend of players that are either elite tee to green or excellent putters.

Obviously, to win the event, the player will need both across four rounds and Denny McCarthy is one that is elite on the greens, especially bermudagrass, and showed us some ball-striking form to close out last year.

McCarthy finished 2021 with three straight top-15 finishes, with two of those at courses that set up similarly to Waialae. My hope is that he will be able to carry the ball-striking that led to 2.3 strokes gained on approach at the RSM over into the new year and kick things off right where he finished in the fall.

We are getting a number at +8000 that feels a little steep for his course fit, even as he makes his first trip to the Sony Open and seeks his first win on TOUR.

Bet Denny McCarthy at PointsBet and get $250 FREE.

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Alex Smalley — Top 20 (+333)

Some of the edge in golf betting can be found by getting to know newer players to the TOUR faster than the books can adjust to their skillset. One player that I plan to be in on at certain events this year is Alex Smalley, and the Sony Open seems to be one that will be a great fit to his game.

Smalley played his college golf at Duke, after growing up in North Carolina, and has had some of his best early results on Bermudagrass courses, similar to what he grew up around.

He will get that set up this week on a Par 70 course which compares favorably to Sedgefield Country Club where he is a member. I'm taking an early season shot on the former Blue Devil to repeat the top-20 finishes that he posted in two of his last three events of the fall, and will grab the +333 on BetMGM where all ties are paid in full.