2022 Sony Open Odds, Picks: 3 Best Bets, Including Outrights & Prop for Corey Conners, More

2022 Sony Open Odds, Picks: 3 Best Bets, Including Outrights & Prop for Corey Conners, More article feature image

Sam Greenwood/Getty Images. Pictured: Denny McCarthy

  • The PGA TOUR goes from Maui to Honolulu for the 2022 Sony Open this week.
  • More than half of the Sentry Tournament of Champions field has made the trip, although Chris Murphy has highlighted three golfers who are making their debut this year.
  • Check out his best bets for the week at Waialae Country Club below.
Click for full Sony Open odds as of Tuesday night via PointsBet.
Cameron Smith+900
Webb Simpson+1400
Sungjae Im+1600
Hideki Matsuyama+1700
Corey Conners+2000
Marc Leishman+2000
Abraham Ancer+2500
Kevin Na+2800
Talor Gooch+2800
Russell Henley+3000
Charles Howell III+3300
Harris English+3300
Kevin Kisner+3300
Billy Horschel+4000
Matt Jones+4000
Maverick McNealy+4000
Seamus Power+4000
Christian Bezuidenhout+5000
Jason Kokrak+5000
Cameron Davis+6000
Chris Kirk+6000
Erik van Rooyen+6000
Joel Dahmen+6000
Si Woo Kim+6000
Brendan Steele+6600
Brian Harman+6600
Brendon Todd+7000
Keith Mitchell+7000
Matt Kuchar+7000
Ryan Palmer+7000
Aaron Rai+8000
Denny McCarthy+8000
Keegan Bradley+8000
K.H. Lee+8000
Stewart Cink+8000
Branden Grace+9000
Patton Kizzire+9000
Tom Hoge+10000
Adam Long+10000
Emiliano Grillo+10000
Takumi Kanaya+10000
Alex Smalley+12500
Brandt Snedeker+12500
Brian Stuard+12500
Harry Higgs+12500
Hayden Buckley+12500
Henrik Norlander+12500
Robert Streb+12500
Rory Sabbatini+12500
Russell Knox+12500
Taylor Pendrith+12500
Zach Johnson+12500
Adam Schenk+15000
Chad Ramey+15000
Graeme McDowell+15000
Greyson Sigg+15000
Hank Lebioda+15000
Hudson Swafford+15000
J.J. Spaun+15000
John Huh+15000
Kramer Hickok+15000
Lucas Glover+15000
Mark Hubbard+15000
Max McGreevy+15000
Michael Thompson+15000
Nick Hardy+15000
Stephan Jaeger+15000
Tyler Duncan+15000
Vincent Whaley+15000
Andrew D. Putnam+17500
Adam Svensson+20000
Brandon Wu+20000
Cameron Young+20000
Chan Kim+20000
Davis Riley+20000
Jim Furyk+20000
Keita Nakajima+20000
Kyle Stanley+20000
Nate Lashley+20000
Peter Malnati+20000
Rikuya Hoshino+20000
Roger Sloan+20000
Ryan Moore+20000
Sahith Theegala+20000
Sung Kang+20000
Andrew Novak+25000
Austin Cook+25000
David Lipsky+25000
David Skinns+25000
Dawie van der Walt+25000
Dylan Wu+25000
Jim Herman+25000
Jimmy Walker+25000
JT Poston+25000
Kevin Tway+25000
Lee Hodges+25000
Sam Ryder+25000
Sepp Straka+25000
Seth Reeves+25000
Ryan Armour+25000
Chase Seiffert+25000
Camilo Villegas+25000
Cameron Percy+25000
Beau Hossler+30000
Ben Kohles+30000
Chesson Hadley+30000
Hao Tong Li+30000
Jim Knous+30000
Joshua Creel+30000
Justin Lower+30000
Kurt Kitayama+30000
Satoshi Kodaira+30000
Trey Mullinax+30000
Wesley Bryan+30000
Vaughn Taylor+30000
Austin Smotherman+35000
Brian Gay+35000
Curtis Thompson+35000
Jerry Kelly+35000
Joseph Bramlett+35000
Luke Donald+35000
Richy Werenski+35000
Scott Gutschewski+35000
Bill Haas+40000
Brett Drewitt+40000
Callum Tarren+40000
Kelly Kraft+40000
Kevin Chappell+40000
Michael Gligic+40000
Paul Barjon+40000
William McGirt+40000
Garret Okamura+50000
Jared Wolfe+50000
Kevin Carll+50000
Martin Trainer+50000
Parker McLachlin+50000
Peter Jung+50000
Brent Grant+50000
Bo Hoag+50000
BJ Doucett+50000
Jared Sawada+50000
Koichiro Ishika+50000
Andy Ogletree+50000
Bo Van Pelt+50000

It was a record-setting week at Kapalua as three players managed to break the single tournament scoring mark previously held by Ernie Els, but it was Cam Smith that came out above the rest with a remarkable 35-under performance. He was nearly flawless in some abnormally benign conditions at The Plantation Course, and he will now join a group of 23 players from the Tournament of Champions that will also tee it up this week at the Sony Open.

Smith leads the way in the odds market, as the former winner of this event enters the week carrying great form. Hideki Matsuyama is the other big name that will make the trip from Maui to Honolulu, as Bryson DeChambeau made a last minute change of plans and withdrew on Monday.

Other players, like Webb Simpson, will make their 2022 debut this week in the first full-field event of the season.

As I dive into the data for this week, it's very clear just how different these two Hawaiian courses are to start the year. Players will be coming over from hitting driver into huge fairways to now looking to dial it back off the tee with the hopes of staying in the short grass on the short Par 70 track at Waialae Country Club.

The players with success at this event have been the guys that are straight off the tee and accurate on approach, with the ability to get hot on the greens. We have a number of those in the field this week, and I'll look to dial in on those players in my best bets for the Sony Open.

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Best Bets

Corey Conners +2600

There was a better number available on Conners when the odds first opened, but DeChambeau's withdrawal saw it go down. However, getting +2600 is still solid for a guy I think will be in position to contend for the win this week.

Conners is a prototypical ball-striker who can be relied on to hit fairways and greens in bunches. His biggest issue is — and seemingly always will be — the short game, but he has found success in that aspect of his game at this event.

Two of Conners' best three putting performances of his career have come at Waialae Country Club, where he gained more than five shots with the flatstick. Unfortunately for the Canadian, he didn't have his best iron game those weeks, leaving him with a 12th and 39th-place finish.

Still, in his best result at the Sony Open, a third-place finish in 2019, he gained 2.2 strokes on the greens, which again reiterates that he just sees it well on the putting surfaces of this course.

His tee-to-green game is a perfect fit for this track, and if he can pair it with the strong putting he has shown in prior years, I think we may see Conners contend this week for his second TOUR win.

Bet Corey Conners at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.

Denny McCarthy +8000

I went back and forth with a few longshot options this week, as I think there is plenty of value down the leaderboard in a field a bit light on star power. In looking back at prior winners and even top-5 finishers, there is a very apparent trend of players that are either elite tee to green or excellent putters.

Obviously, to win the event, the player will need both across four rounds and Denny McCarthy is one that is elite on the greens, especially bermudagrass, and showed us some ball-striking form to close out last year.

McCarthy finished 2021 with three straight top-15 finishes, with two of those at courses that set up similarly to Waialae. My hope is that he will be able to carry the ball-striking that led to 2.3 strokes gained on approach at the RSM over into the new year and kick things off right where he finished in the fall.

We are getting a number at +8000 that feels a little steep for his course fit, even as he makes his first trip to the Sony Open and seeks his first win on TOUR.

Bet Denny McCarthy at PointsBet and get $250 FREE.

Alex Smalley — Top 20 (+333)

Some of the edge in golf betting can be found by getting to know newer players to the TOUR faster than the books can adjust to their skillset. One player that I plan to be in on at certain events this year is Alex Smalley, and the Sony Open seems to be one that will be a great fit to his game.

Smalley played his college golf at Duke, after growing up in North Carolina, and has had some of his best early results on Bermudagrass courses, similar to what he grew up around.

He will get that set up this week on a Par 70 course which compares favorably to Sedgefield Country Club where he is a member. I'm taking an early season shot on the former Blue Devil to repeat the top-20 finishes that he posted in two of his last three events of the fall, and will grab the +333 on BetMGM where all ties are paid in full.

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