2022 Valero Texas Open Odds & PrizePicks: 4 Picks for Round 1 at TPC San Antonio

2022 Valero Texas Open Odds & PrizePicks: 4 Picks for Round 1 at TPC San Antonio article feature image

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Rory McIlroy.

Click arrow to expand 2022 Valero Texas Open odds via PointsBet

2022 Valero Texas Open Odds

Rory McIlroy+900
Jordan Spieth+1600
Corey Conners+1800
Hideki Matsuyama+2000
Chris Kirk+2500
Gary Woodland+2500
Bryson DeChambeau+2800
Si Woo Kim+2800
Adam Hadwin+3300
Tony Finau+3300
Maverick McNealy+3500
Keegan Bradley+4000
Davis Riley+4000
Jason Day+5000
Jhonattan Vegas+5000
Kevin Streelman+5000
Luke List+5500
Mito Guillermo Pereira+6000
Patton Kizzire+6000
Rickie Fowler+6000
Russell Knox+6600
Brendan Steele+7000
Charley Hoffman+7000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee+7000
Robert MacIntyre+7000
Ryan Palmer+7000
Sahith Theegala+7000
Doug Ghim+7500
Denny McCarthy+8000
Matt Kuchar+8000
Rasmus Højgaard+8000
Charles Howell III+9000
Ian Poulter+9000
Lanto Griffin+9000
Matthew NeSmith+9000
Alex Smalley+10000
Dylan Frittelli+10000
Martin Laird+10000
Matt Jones+10000
Nick Taylor+10000
Pat Perez+10000
Scott Stallings+10000
Takumi Kanaya+10000
Taylor Moore+10000
Troy Merritt+10000
Peter Uihlein+10000
Anirban Lahiri+12500
Beau Hossler+12500
Branden Grace+12500
Brian Stuard+12500
Chad Ramey+12500
Cheng-Tsung Pan+12500
David Lipsky+12500
J. J. Spaun+12500
Kramer Hickok+12500
Lee Westwood+12500
Lucas Glover+12500
Matthias Schwab+12500
Richard Bland+12500
Adam Long+15000
Andrew D. Putnam+15000
Brendon Todd+15000
Doc Redman+15000
Greyson Sigg+15000
Joseph Bramlett+15000
Min Woo Lee+15000
Nate Lashley+15000
Sam Ryder+15000
Vincent Whaley+15000
Wyndham Clark+15000
Cameron Champ+17500
Danny Lee+17500
Harry Higgs+17500
Aaron Rai+20000
Adam Schenk+20000
Adam Svensson+20000
Andrew Novak+20000
Austin Smotherman+20000
Brandon Hagy+20000
Chez Reavie+20000
Hank Lebioda+20000
Hayden Buckley+20000
Hudson Swafford+20000
Jimmy Walker+20000
JT Poston+20000
Kevin Chappell+20000
Kevin Tway+20000
Kyle Stanley+20000
Lee Hodges+20000
Nick Hardy+20000
Patrick Rodgers+20000
Robert Streb+20000
Tyler Duncan+20000
Zach Johnson+20000
Brandt Snedeker+25000
Garrick Higgo+25000
Graeme McDowell+25000
Henrik Stenson+25000
John Huh+25000
Justin Lower+25000
Luke Donald+25000
Matt Wallace+25000
Max McGreevy+25000
Peter Malnati+25000
Ryan Brehm+25000
Stephan Jaeger+25000
Trey Mullinax+25000
Ben Kohles+30000
Ben Martin+30000
Bill Haas+30000
Brice Garnett+30000
Camilo Villegas+30000
Logan McAllister+30000
Nick Watney+30000
Richy Werenski+30000
Roger Sloan+30000
Seung-yul Noh+30000
Sung Kang+30000
Jared Wolfe+30000
Chesson Hadley+35000
Dylan Wu+35000
Guido Migliozzi+35000
James Hahn+35000
Paul Barjon+35000
Aaron Baddeley+35000
Austin Cook+50000
Ben Kern+50000
Bronson Burgoon+50000
Curtis Thompson+50000
David Skinns+50000
Dawie van der Walt+50000
Henrik Norlander+50000
Jim Herman+50000
Jonas Blixt+50000
Kelly Kraft+50000
Ludvig Aberg+50000
Martin Trainer+50000
Michael Gligic+50000
Seth Reeves+50000
William McGirt+50000
Shawn Stefani+50000
Jake Kevorkian+50000
Samuel Saunders+50000

The AT&T Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio has hosted the Valero Texas Open since 2010 and has been the warm-up for the Masters since 2019. Iron play is crucial to success at TPC San Antonio while driving and putting is more give-and-take.

The four previous winners of this event finished the course ahead of the field in two major categories: SG Tee-to-Green and SG Approach the Green. These analytic indicators confirm the importance of iron play at this event and should be used to narrow down the best bets for this tournament.

In SG Tee-to-Green, the four previous winners ranked 3rd, 2nd, 1st, and 2nd relative to the rest of the pack at TPC San Antonio. In SG Approach the Green, those four guys ranked 4th, 1st, 1st, and 4th in the field.

Below, I give out my four first-round PrizePicks flex plays for this weekend's Valero Texas Open. For those unfamiliar with PrizePicks flex plays, getting four-of-four correct registers a 5x payout while three-of-four correct notches a 1.5x payout.

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PrizePicks Plays

Rory McIlroy: Round 1 Under 69.5 Strokes

McIlroy is the betting favorite to win this tournament, and for good reason. Not only is McIlroy playing against a relatively easy field, but Rory was one of the best iron players on tour last season as he ranked 10th in SG Tee-to-Green and 35th in SG Approach the Green.

Over his four events played this season, McIlroy boasts a positive true strokes gained in the approach. McIlroy is 4/4 on making the cut this season and has gone under 69.5 strokes in the first round in three of those tournaments.

In his one appearance at Valero in 2013, Rory finished in second place.

Zach Johnson: Round 1 Over 71 Strokes

Johnson's iron-play has been brutal this season, which is amplified by his metrics as he ranks just 178th in SG Tee-to-Green and 187th in SG Approach the Green. Over his last five tournaments, Johnson's true strokes gained in the approach is negative.

Zach Johnson's recent form has been poor as he has missed the cut in three of his last four tournaments. Tough first-round scores have haunted him this season as his first-round average over his last five tournaments is 72.2.

I do not think TPC San Antonio is a place where he will figure It out, especially considering he has missed the cut in two of his three appearances at the course.

Chez Reavie: Round 1 Over 71 Strokes

Ranking 108th in SG Tee-to-Green and 59th in SG Approach the Green, Reavie's iron-play is nothing to write home about. His recent form is concerning as his true strokes gained in the approach is negative over his last five tournaments and he has missed the cut in two of those.

Reavie's first-round average score over those five tournaments sits at 72.4, and he has gone over 71 strokes in the first round in all five of his prior appearances at TPC San Antonio.

Charles Howell III: Round 1 Over 71 Strokes

Another sub-average iron player is Charles Howell III, who ranks just 53rd in SG Tee-to-Green and 126th in SG Approach the Green. Over his last five tournaments, his true strokes gained in the approach is negative.

Charles' recent form is not great as he has missed the cut in two of his last three tournaments. Much like Reavie, Howell III has never found success in the first round at TPC San Antonio as he has gone over 71 strokes in the first round in all three of his career appearances at the course.

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