2022 Waste Management Open: 3 Longshot Picks, Headlined By Max Homa & Rickie Fowler

2022 Waste Management Open: 3 Longshot Picks, Headlined By Max Homa & Rickie Fowler article feature image

Ben Jared/PGA TOUR. Pictured: Max Homa

Click here for full Waste Management Open odds from BetMGM
Jon Rahm+750
Justin Thomas+1200
Patrick Cantlay+1400
Hideki Matsuyama+1600
Viktor Hovland+1600
Jordan Spieth+2000
Xander Schauffele+2200
Daniel Berger+2500
Scottie Scheffler+2500
Brooks Koepka+3300
Sam Burns+3300
Bubba Watson+4000
Louis Oosthuizen+4000
Russell Henley+4000
Seamus Power+4000
Tony Finau+4000
Webb Simpson+4000
Matt Fitzpatrick+4000
Abraham Ancer+5000
Adam Scott+5000
Corey Conners+5000
Harold Varner III+5000
Luke List+5000
Billy Horschel+5000
Tom Hoge+5000
Talor Gooch+6600
Harris English+6600
Max Homa+6600
Keith Mitchell+6600
Andrew Putnam+8000
Denny McCarthy+8000
Joel Dahmen+8000
Kevin Kisner+8000
Matt Kuchar+8000
Pat Perez+8000
Rickie Fowler+8000
Si Woo Kim+8000
Aaron Wise+8000
Gary Woodland+8000
Russell Knox+8000
Charles Howell III+10000
Keegan Bradley+10000
Brian Harman+10000
Adam Hadwin+12500
Alex Noren+12500
Branden Grace+12500
Brendon Todd+12500
Chris Kirk+12500
Dylan Frittelli+12500
Francesco Molinari+12500
K.H. Lee+12500
Lucas Herbert+12500
Michael Thompson+12500
Mito Pereira+12500
Nate Lashley+12500
Nick Taylor+12500
Troy Merritt+12500
Cam Davis+15000
Carlos Ortiz+15000
Charley Hoffman+15000
Chez Reavie+15000
Garrick Higgo+15000
Hudson Swafford+15000
Lucas Glover+15000
Martin Laird+15000
Matt Jones+15000
Matthew NeSmith+15000
Patrick Rodgers+15000
Patton Kizzire+15000
Sahith Theegala+15000
Scott Stallings+15000
Sepp Straka+15000
Wyndham Clark+15000
Zach Johnson+15000
Beau Hossler+15000
Brendan Steele+15000
Doug Ghim+15000
Kevin Streelman+15000
Matt Wallace+15000
Sebastian Munoz+15000
Stewart Cink+15000
Brandt Snedeker+20000
Joseph Bramlett+20000
Kramer Hickok+20000
Scott Piercy+20000
Emiliano Grillo+20000
Harry Higgs+20000
James Hahn+20000
Ryan Moore+20000
Adam Long+25000
Danny Lee+25000
Hank Lebioda+25000
Henrik Norlander+25000
J.T. Poston+25000
Kyle Stanley+25000
Roger Sloan+25000
Jonathan Byrd+25000
Adam Schenk+30000
Austin Eckroat+30000
C.T. Pan+30000
Graeme McDowell+30000
Jimmy Walker+30000
Robert Streb+30000
Rory Sabbatini+30000
Stephan Jaeger+30000
Sung Kang+30000
Tyler Duncan+30000
Brandon Hagy+35000
Brian Stuard+35000
Jason Dufner+35000
Kelly Kraft+35000
Kevin Tway+35000
Peter Malnati+35000
Anirban Lahiri+40000
Brice Garnett+40000
Kevin Chappell+40000
Luke Donald+40000
Sam Ryder+40000
Seung-Yul Noh+40000
Tyler McCumber+40000
Wesley Bryan+40000
Bill Haas+50000
Brian Gay+50000
Chesson Hadley+50000
Nick Watney+50000
William McGirt+50000
Ben Silverman+50000
Martin Trainer+75000
Preston Summerhays+75000
Jeffrey Kang+75000
Craig Hocknull+100000
Etienne Papineau+100000

The Waste Management Phoenix Open can be a difficult event to handicap. It’s a consistent stop on TOUR that sees some of the biggest names in the field year after year, but the energy around the event is unlike any other in the golf world.

Giant, rowdy crowds line the fairways and the stadium seating of the Par 3 16th hole. Some golfers relish the chance to play in a buzzing environment, egging the crowds on for more noise and energy. Others shrink away from the moment or even skip the event entirely.

It's hard to know which side of the line a player will fall on until he's teed it up at TPC Scottsdale. Once a player has a few trips around this event in their past, however, it can be quite clear which ones have the temperament and the enthusiasm for golf’s party weekend, and which are looking forward to the quiet tranquility of their next event on Tour.

These three players with longer odds to win this weekend have all shown themselves to be quite comfortable in the crazy confines of TPC Scottsdale, and all could be in the mix on Sunday.

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Max Homa +6500

This pick may be stretching the definition of long shot, depending on your relationship to risk, but 65-1 outright odds feel long enough to me to highlight Homa’s chances to compete this weekend.

The 31-year-old has delivered a mixed bag of results in the 2021-22 FedEx Cup season, counter-balancing a win and a T15 with two missed cuts and two middle of the pack finishes. That leaves his game in good enough position to like his chances this weekend.

Homa lives in the Phoenix area and has always played well on the West Coast, specifically at TPC Scottsdale. Per DataGolf, among players in this week’s field, no one has gained more strokes per round (min. 10 rounds played) than their expected baseline performance at this venue than Homa.

He is settling into his comfort zone during the PGA Tour’s West Coast swing, ranking seventh in the world in Strokes Gained: Putting over the last 30 days. If he can roll it well this weekend, he’ll be a factor.

Bet Homa at PointsBet and get $250 FREE.

Rickie Fowler +7000

It’s dangerous to let narrative seep into your head when you’re fishing for winners on the PGA TOUR, but a Fowler resurgence at TPC Scottsdale feels right and has the numbers to back it up.

This event hosted Fowler’s coming out party back in 2010. In just his second career PGA TOUR event, Fowler earned his way to a playoff. He lost the playoff and finished in second place, but he announced his presence as new face in golf. Since then, he’s always brought his “A” game to Scottsdale each year. He lost in a playoff again in 2016 and finished tied for 4th in 2017 before finally winning the event in 2019.

This was the site of his last victory on Tour as he’s slipped into this abyss of mediocrity recently. If there’s a course and an event that is going to fuel a return to glory for Fowler, it’s this course and this event.

Bet Fowler & Grace at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.

Branden Grace +9000

Of all the players in this week’s field with at least eight rounds under the belt at TPC Scottsdale, none have gained more strokes on the field on average than Grace. The South African has played this event twice and finished in the top 10 both times. In 2020, he fired four rounds of 70 or better and finished in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Approach for the week.

In 2019, he swung the club maybe better than anyone else in the field, but got bested by a lightning-hot putting week by Fowler.

I’d love to have seen some better recent results before pulling the trigger on Grace in Phoenix, but he has always shown the ability to get hot quickly. His five top 10s and seven missed cuts in 2020 were interwoven throughout the season, with his putter often dictating his hot weeks.

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