2023 Charles Schwab Challenge: Projections, Picks for Final Round

I am happy with where my model has landed this week for the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge. The in-tournament wagers went a perfect 3-0, which should result in a winning week after these final few pre-tournament wagers end.

Still, it has been a rigid board to discover much value with how shops priced these matchups daily.

I strongly considered playing Christiaan Bezudienhout (-110) over Min Woo Lee on Bet365 for Sunday before ultimately passing on the card altogether. My model thought that it should have been closer to -125 because of the horrendous pre-tournament grade for Lee that caused some trepidation in the math all tournament long. However, that quickly shifted to absolutely no value when I tried to incorporate a steadier projection for the Aussie that didn't get entirely unraveled by his lack of data inside my model.

The one thing about my math that I always say is that it is inconsistent in the way it treats some golfers who aren't playing full-time on the PGA Tour. We will be able to fix that in this situation moving forward since Lee has gained temporary membership for the rest of the season, but I didn't see a point in forcing any wagers for the sake of content.

So instead of trying to find value on this board tomorrow in a matchup sense, let's talk about some of the players that have been the furthest away from their baseline numbers with their short-game retrievals. I love looking into that data since it typically shows where regression (both positive and negative) should take place.

If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.

Charles Schwab Challenge Projections for Final Round

Underachievers

The image above is a recalculation of all players' scoring when I used their actual ball striking for the week and mixed it with their baseline around the green and putting.

I've talked about that a lot in these articles recently, since the modification of that data is something I view to be highly pertinent to the projected daily success of a golfer. It is a weighable category in my model to find head-to-head wagers, and it is also a stout DFS tool since we can find players that should be performing better than they have through the first handful of days of any event.

My totals have Justin Rose as the biggest underachiever because of his 5.83-shot difference in expected production for the week versus his actual output on the scoreboard.

We do have a little bit of a mixed bag beneath him, since my model wasn't necessarily overly encouraged by a handful of the golfers pre-event that are posted on that list. Still, when we exclude some of the obvious choices that clearly should be under consideration (Scheffler), names like Matthew NeSmith, Tom Hoge, Byeong Hun An, Patrick Rodgers and Alex Smalley all landed as DFS considerations that could be able to shoot a quality round if they make a few putts.

Overachievers

For one reason or another, I am out on this list if playing DFS on Sunday. Names like Adam Schenk and Carson Young have been continuous "fade" options for me the entire week, and I would rather make the whole group beat me in showdown contests versus trying to chase their built-in score for round four.

Sure, Viktor Hovland has a little win equity that he could back into for the day, but his ownership will likely feel the effects of landing that high up on the leaderboard. I prefer stacking similar scores in Scheffler, Rose or Harman if going anywhere near that section of the board.

Overall, Sunday will be one of those days where I am getting my exposure to DFS over betting and trying to land a profit in that sector. I don't believe every market is as "winnable" daily as you would expect, and half the battle is understanding when to pivot elsewhere when a board is priced against you!