2023 Honda Classic Sleeper Picks & Odds: Bet Will Gordon & Carl Yuan

2023 Honda Classic Sleeper Picks & Odds: Bet Will Gordon & Carl Yuan article feature image
Credit:

Via Hector Vivas/Getty Images. Pictured: Will Gordon of United States plays his shot from the 5th tee during the final round of the World Wide Technology Championship at Club de Golf El Camaleon at on November 06, 2022 in Playa del Carmen.

  • The PGA TOUR makes its first stop on the Florida Swing at PGA National for The Honda Classic.
  • Roberto Arguello has found value on three longshots in the outright and placement markets this week.
  • Find his picks and analysis for Will Gordon, Carl Yuan and Hayden Buckley below.
Click arrow to expand The Honda Classic odds via PointsBet
Player NameOdds
Sungjae Im+1000
Shane Lowry+1600
Aaron Wise+2200
Billy Horschel+2500
Matt Kuchar+2800
Adam Svensson+2800
Denny Mccarthy+3000
Min Woo Lee+3000
Chris Kirk+3300
J.T. Poston+3500
Taylor Pendrith+3500
Jhonattan Vegas+3500
Harris English+3500
Thomas Detry+3500
Adrian Meronk+4000
Byeong Hun An+4500
Cam Davis+4500
Robby Shelton+4500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+4500
Hayden Buckley+4500
Stephan Jaeger+4500
Will Gordon+4500
Lee Hodges+5000
Sepp Straka+5000
S.H. Kim+5000
Joseph Bramlett+5000
Ben Griffin+5000
Aaron Rai+6000
Brandon Wu+6000
Danny Willett+6000
Davis Riley+6600
Ryan Palmer+6600
Padraig Harrington+6600
Nick Hardy+6600
Garrick Higgo+7500
Justin Suh+7500
Adam Schenk+8000
Dylan Frittelli+9000
Sam Stevens+9000
Charley Hoffman+9000
Webb Simpson+9000
Erik Van Rooyen+9000
Mark Hubbard+9000
Callum Tarren+10000
Carl Yuan+10000
Harry Hall+10000
Peter Malnati+10000
Eric Cole+10000
Russell Knox+11000
Matt Wallace+11000
Ben Taylor+11000
Michael Kim+12500
Matti Schmid+12500
Mj Daffue+12500
Adam Long+12500
Ben Martin+12500
Aaron Baddeley+12500
Kevin Tway+12500
Tyler Duncan+12500
Greyson Sigg+12500
Erik Barnes+12500
Harry Higgs+15000
Andrew Novak+15000
Austin Eckroat+15000
Matthias Schwab+15000
Vincent Norrman+17500
Chesson Hadley+17500
Kramer Hickok+17500
Zecheng Dou+17500
Dylan Wu+17500
Satoshi Kodaira+17500
Luke Donald+17500
Akshay Bhatia+20000
Zach Johnson+20000
Hank Lebioda+20000
Austin Cook+20000
Henrik Norlander+20000
Augusto Núñez+20000
Brent Grant+25000
Kyle Westmoreland+25000
Chris Stroud+25000
Ryan Moore+25000
Doc Redman+25000
Tyson Alexander+25000
Ryan Armour+25000
Pierceson Coody+25000
David Lingmerth+25000
Sean O'hair+25000
Harrison Endycott+30000
S.Y. Noh+30000
Martin Trainer+30000
Nico Echavarria+30000
Tano Goya+30000
Robert Streb+30000
Jonas Blixt+30000
Sung Kang+30000
Jason Dufner+35000
Paul Haley Ii+35000
Rory Sabbatini+35000
Brice Garnett+35000
Zac Blair+35000
Richy Werenski+35000
Ben Silverman+35000
Cameron Percy+40000
Jimmy Walker+40000
Jonathan Byrd+40000
Brian Stuard+40000
Fabián Gómez+40000
Kevin Roy+40000
Michael Gligic+40000
Curtis Thompson+40000
Kevin Chappell+40000
Grayson Murray+40000
Andrew Kozan+50000
Trevor Cone+50000
Chad Ramey+50000
Andrew Landry+50000
Cody Gribble+50000
Trevor Werbylo+50000
Scott Harrington+50000
Camilo Villegas+50000
Kelly Kraft+50000
Scott Brown+50000
Trace Crowe+50000
William Mcgirt+60000
Jim Herman+60000
Bill Haas+60000
Anders Albertson+60000
Carson Young+60000
J.B. Holmes+60000
Brandon Matthews+60000
Brian Gay+60000
Brett Drewitt+60000
Ryan Gerard+60000
Max Mcgreevy+70000
Kyle Stanley+70000
Parker Coody+70000
Tyler Collet+100000
Marcus Byrd+100000
Ryan Brehm+100000
Ben Crane+100000
Arjun Atwal+100000
Geoff Ogilvy+100000

The PGA TOUR moves from California to Florida this week with the Honda Classic at PGA National.

This week features one of the toughest courses on TOUR, where few players have reached double-digits under par over the last decade. With water in play on 15 of the 18 holes and bunkers everywhere, approach play will be at a premium at PGA National, especially from beyond 125 yards.

The shift to Florida is great news for players who prefer Bermudagrass greens over Poa annua. It’s also great news for those of us who like longshot bets because Jon Rahm isn’t in the field to wreck the board (again).

Let’s dive into which sleepers at longer than 50-1 have a chance to win or cash prop bets at longer odds this week.

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The Honda Classic Sleeper Picks

Will Gordon Outright +7000 (FanDuel) | Top 20 +260 (bet365)

The last time Will Gordon was featured in this column, we bet him to win outright at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which was an experience.

Gordon got to 8-under par through 15 holes at Pebble Beach to become the live betting tournament favorite very briefly before finishing bogey-bogey-triple and fading into the weekend before ultimately withdrawing.

Even after this experience, I remain bullish on Gordon. His tee-to-green game has been solid, and he has a high floor relative to most players in this field (which could be useful if you find him in a matchup against the right player) because he's above average on approach, off the tee and from the bunkers.

In nine tracked tournaments on TOUR this season, Gordon has not lost more than 0.25 strokes per round on approach, and he has gained strokes off the tee in 8-of-9 such tournaments because of extreme length off the tee and slightly above-average driving accuracy.

His above-average birdie average and bogey avoidance also point to him having success at PGA National as the former Vanderbilt Commodore returns to the South.

Carl Yuan Outright +18000 (FanDuel) | Top 20 +600 (bet365) | Top 40 +210 (bet365)

If you spook easily, this might not be the best player to back this week, but I’m holding my nose and betting Carl (Yechun) Yuan.

I remain confident that Yuan will break through at some point during his rookie season on TOUR after an incredible season on the Korn Ferry Tour last season (where he won once and had seven top-five finishes in 22 starts).

The shift from the West Coast to Florida should help Yuan with the corresponding move to Bermudagrass greens. Yuan has struggled mightily overall with the flatstick this season, but all three of his made cuts — and three of his top-four putting performances — have come on Bermudagrass.

Yuan has had a few extremely poor weeks on approach, but he also has gained over 0.89 strokes on approach per round in five of his eight tournaments this season. If he strikes the ball like this while avoiding a disaster on the greens, he should have a solid chance of finishing in the top 20 in this watered-down field.

I'm generally higher on him than the market is and have played an escalator for him to finish in the top 40 (+210) and top 20 (+600) at bet365, along with a sprinkle to win outright at FanDuel (+18000).

Hayden Buckley +5500 (FanDuel)

On a course with trouble lurking all around with plenty of water and sand, I like Hayden Buckley this week because of his elite play off the tee.

Buckley ranks fifth on TOUR this season in SG: Off the Tee (0.851) because of his above-average combination of driving distance (57th) and riving accuracy (22nd).

In 10 starts this season, Buckley has ranked above the field average in driving accuracy nine times, and he was just 1% below the field average in the lone tournament in which he did not find the fairway off the tee at an above-average rate.

The TOUR moving to Bermudagrass greens and away from Poa annua greens during the Florida swing should also suit Buckley, who grew up in Tennessee and played his college golf at Missouri.

He also ranks in the top third of the TOUR in bogey avoidance and three-putt avoidance, which will be key at PGA National, where simply getting to double-digits under par is often enough to win.

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