2023 Mexico Open Odds: Our Favorite Picks for Will Gordon, Nicolai Hojgaard, More

2023 Mexico Open Odds: Our Favorite Picks for Will Gordon, Nicolai Hojgaard, More article feature image

Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images. Pictured: Will Gordon.

  • Jon Rahm and Tony Finau headline the 2023 Mexico Open Field.
  • Rahm is the defending champion, but our staff is looking further down the odds board for its best bets.
  • Check out our favorite Mexico Open picks below.

We're back to regular stroke play this week with our Mexico Open picks.

Last week, Davis Riley and Nick Hardy won the PGA Tour Tag Team Championships at the Zurich Classic. This week, it's Jon Rahm and Tony Finau headlining an underwhelming field at Vidanta Vallarta.

Our staff has laid out its picks and strategies for the week. Check out where our action is on the PGA Tour with our Mexico Open picks below.

Click arrow to expand 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta odds via BetMGM
Jon Rahm+250
Tony Finau+750
Wyndham Clark+1800
Gary Woodland+2500

Nicolai Hojgaard+2800
Patrick Rodgers+2800
Byeong Hun An+3500
Beau Hossler+4000
Maverick McNealy+4000
Stephan Jaeger+4000
Aaron Rai+4500
Alex Noren+4500
Emiliano Grillo+5000
S.H. Kim+5000
Taylor Pendrith+5000

Ben Martin+5500
Alex Smalley+5500
Brandon Wu+5500
Joseph Bramlett+6000
Robby Shelton+6000
Andrew Putnam+6600
Lee Hodges+6600
Luke List+6600
Matt Wallace+6600
Will Gordon+6600
Garrick Higgo+6600
Harry Hall+6600
Chez Reavie+8000
David Lipsky+8000
Lanto Griffin+8000
M.J. Daffue+8000
Mark Hubbard+8000
Patton Kizzire+8000
Dylan Wu+9000
Nate Lashley+9000
Akshay Bhatia+10000
Andrew Novak+10000
Charley Hoffman+10000
Eric Cole+10000
Michael Kim+10000
Vincent Norrman+10000
Austin Eckroat+12500
Cameron Champ+12500
Doug Ghim+12500
Erik van Rooyen+12500

Francesco Molinari+12500
Greyson Sigg+12500
Henrik Norlander+12500
Jimmy Walker+12500
Kevin Streelman+12500
Peter Malnati+12500
Adam Long+15000
Alejandro Tosti+15000
Augusto Nunez+15000
Dylan Frittelli+15000
Harry Higgs+15000
Kevin Chappell+15000
Matthias Schwab+15000
Ryan Gerard+15000
Scott Piercy+15000
Sean O'Hair+15000
Aaron Baddeley+17500
Ben Taylor+17500
Brent Grant+17500
Carl Yuan+17500
Doc Redman+17500
Lucas Glover+17500
Martin Trainer+17500
Matti Schmid+17500
Austin Smotherman+20000
Brandon Matthews+20000
Brice Garnett+20000
Callum Tarren+20000
Cameron Percy+20000
Carson Young+20000
Hank Lebioda+20000
Kevin Tway+20000
Nico Echavarria+20000
Tano Goya+20000

Seung-Yul Noh+22500
Chris Stroud+25000
Cody Gribble+25000
James Hahn+25000
Martin Laird+25000
Satoshi Kodaira+25000
Zecheng Dou+25000
Austin Cook+30000
Jonathan Byrd+30000
Kevin Roy+30000
Paul Haley+30000
Ryan Armour+30000
Ryan Moore+30000
Grayson Murray+35000
Harrison Endycott+35000
Michael Gligic+35000
Trevor Werbylo+35000
Tyson Alexander+35000
Bill Haas+40000
Cristobal Del Solar+40000
Fabian Gomez+40000
Kelly Kraft+40000
Kyle Westmoreland+40000
Scott Harrington+40000
Alvaro Ortiz+50000
Brian Stuard+50000
Camilo Villegas+50000
D.J. Trahan+50000
Geoff Ogilvy+50000
Jose De Jesus Rodriguez+50000
Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira+50000
Max McGreevy+50000
Richy Werenski+50000
Ricky Barnes+50000
Scott Brown+50000
Sung Kang+50000
Trevor Cone+50000
Wesley Bryan+50000
William McGirt+50000
Kyle Reifers+60000
Derek Ernst+75000
Derek Lamely+75000
Greg Chalmers+75000
Jonas Blixt+75000
Kyle Stanley+75000
Nick Watney+75000
R. Pereda+75000
Sebastian Vazquez+75000
Arjun Atwal+100000
Ben Crane+100000
Boo Weekley+100000
Brian Davis+100000
D.A. Points+100000
George McNeill+100000
J. B. Holmes+100000
Jose Cristobal Islas+100000
Kevin Stadler+100000
Omar Morales+100000
R. Lebrija+100000
S. Jurgensen+100000
Richard S. Johnson+100000
Ted Potter Jr+100000
Tommy Gainey+100000
Zach Bauchou+200000

Favorites We’re Backing

Best Long Shot

  • Sobel: Akshay Bhatia
  • Murphy: Garrick Higgo
  • Aguiar: Alex Smalley

Biggest Bust

  • Sobel: Maverick McNealy
  • Murphy: Beau Hossler
  • Aguiar: Andrew Putnam

Contrarian Team To Target

  • Sobel: Brandon Matthews
  • Murphy: Cameron Champ
  • Aguiar: Andrew Novak
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Sobel: Vidanta Vallarta is a 7,456-yard par-71 (designed by none other than Greg Norman!) which should once again offer an edge to the biggest hitters. With only one previous edition of this event as a PGA Tour schedule-filler, we don’t have much to go on, but there are only nine top-100 players in this field, so there’s some rationale behind chasing a few long-hitting long shots.

Murphy: There was a mixed bag at the top of the leaderboard in this event last year, when the Tour played its first tournament at Vindata Vallarta. While several of the longer hitters in the game stood out near the to with the likes of Jon Rahm, Tony Finau and Cameron Champ finishing in the top 10, I will lean into that trend this week but also focus on overall tee to green play.

All of the top-12 finishers from last year gained strokes off the tee. Though it’s a small sample, it makes sense to be a trend on a par-71 course with four par 5s and a driveable par 4.

Aguiar: Vidanata Villarta delivered as we expected last season in its inaugural go-around on the PGA Tour. Wide-open fairways rendered this driver-heavy test that saw players be able to bomb and gouge because of the lack of rough at the property. However, it is essential to note that the sticky Paspalum grass that runs throughout the property generated a test that didn't breed the distance you might expect off the tee.

I say all of that before mentioning that we did experience a 13-yard increase in expectation with distance. Still, the more significant issue stemmed from the 42.3% of second shots that took place from beyond 200 yards last year, a total that placed 19.4% above the PGA Tour average in projected influence.

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2023 Mexico Open Picks

Sobel: Will Gordon — Top 10 (+490)

For a second consecutive week, my outright card will be fairly light. I’ll likely have some Finau at a short number, buoyed by a few lottery tickets on Bhatia, Matthews and maybe Martin Trainer, all of which sound incredibly terrible.

That said, there exists a decent market for props this week, which is where Gordon comes in.

The results haven’t quite been there yet, but Gordon has gained strokes with his approach play in seven of his last eight starts. A share of third place back in the fall portion of the schedule at Mayakoba should at least offer a nice correlation for this one. Gordon should similarly be a candidate for OAD pools and DFS, as well.

Pick: Will Gordon — Top 10 (+490)

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Murphy: Gary Woodland +2500 (BetMGM)

The first number that stands out to me right here is Gary Woodland, who has been playing much better golf since the start of 2023 — even if the top results aren’t quite there for him.

It just seems that one metric is letting him down and keeping him from contending. Last time out, it was his play around the greens, where he lost 4.8 strokes to the field at the RBC Heritage to erase 4.4 strokes gained on ball striking and four more on the greens.

He’s lost more than five shots with the putter in three separate events this year, including seven strokes lost on the greens at The Players, where he gained 8.2 strokes tee to green.

Overall, his ball striking has been really strong and elite at times. This is a course where he’ll be firing driver off the tee to some fairly forgiving landing zones and should have plenty of opportunity to put himself in position for success with the short game.

If he can finally pair his game on and around the greens with the ball striking he has shown this year, the Mexico Open could be a great chance for him to capture his first win since the 2019 U.S. Open.

Vincenzi: Nicolai Hojgaard +3000 (bet365)

Last week, Hojgaard accepted a Special Temporary Membership for the remainder of the season. It's no surprise that the promising young talent was offered the exemption, and he's been excellent of late. He finished second at the Corales Puntacana Championship and followed it up with a 28th at the Valero Texas Open, an event in which he gained 5.2 strokes on approach.

The second place at the Corales Puntacana Championship is notable, considering the paspalum grass he played on that week will be similar to what we'll see in Mexico. Last year, I picked Brandon Wu to play well in the event based on his track record in Puntacana, and he didn't disappoint with a second-place finish.

Nicolai built off his strong play in last week's Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Hojgaard and his compatriot Thorbjorn Olesen finished 32nd, which doesn't appear to be a great finish, but context is important. According to Data Golf, Hojgaard gained 7.6 strokes on the field during the tournament, while Olesen lost 10.5 strokes.

Distance should be a major asset this week, and over his past 24 rounds, Hojgaard ranks first in the field in Driving Distance.

With a win this week, the 22-year-old rising star would put himself in a good position to make the 2023 Ryder Cup team in Italy, and I believe the course sets up perfectly for Hojgaard to contend.

Aguiar: Lanto Griffin (-120) Over Greyson Sigg (BetRivers)

There are a handful of ways to consider taking on Greyson Sigg this week in various markets, but one of my favorite routes of trying to gain exposure against the 228th-ranked golfer in the world is in a head-to-head matchup.

All books have different pairings, so be sure to shop around for other possible opponents. Although it is worth noting that we get this potential situation here against Sigg, where the market seems to be reacting too strongly to his 33rd-place finish last season.

Sigg hasn't placed inside the top 45 in 11 starts this season, and it doesn't help matters that he ranked 106th in my model for distance + long iron proximity and 88th-place tee-to-green. That last total placed 43 positions below his baseline output on my sheet, making this a spot where I am going to trust my math over the consensus movement that is taking place throughout the space.

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