2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions Sleeper Picks and Predictions: Back Adam Scott and Hideki Matsuyama at Kapalua

The PGA TOUR kicks off the new year with the Sentry Tournament of Champions at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Maui.

The field this week features 39 total players: 29 winners from the 2021-2022 PGA TOUR season and 10 other players who finished in the top 30 of the FedExCup Playoffs Points List. This is the first time that players who finished in the top 30 who did not win a tournament on TOUR last season have been invited to play in the Tournament of Champions.

Let’s dive into some of the players at longer odds who have value in the first of the TOUR’s two weeks in Hawaii.

Sentry Tournament of Champions Sleeper Picks

Adam Scott – Top 10 +320 (FanDuel)

The 2013 Masters champion returns to Kapalua for just the second time since 2014 this week, but he has had success here before as he has top-seven finishes in four of his seven appearances. The Plantation Course should suit his eye as its wide fairways and big greens minimize his weaknesses – driving accuracy and, to a lesser degree, around the green play – while emphasizing his strengths – driving distance, approach play and putting.

In particular, this course also emphasizes approach play on shots inside 100 yards and over 200 yards. Scott finished 10th on TOUR last season with an average proximity on approach shots within 100 yards of 14 feet three inches while finishing ninth on average proximity on approach shots over 200 yards (45 feet and six inches).

Scott is in solid form after posting a solo second at the ISPS Handa Australian Open on the DP World Tour in his last start in early December, and I love his chances of finishing in the top quarter of this 39-man field at a course he has had success at before. This prop is as low as +200 at BetMGM, but be sure to shop around as FanDuel has Scott to finish in the top 20 at +320.

Hideki Matsuyama – Top 5 +600 (bet365)

Matsuyama is a player I faded frequently down the stretch of 2022 because of his lack of health, but after almost two months since his last start, I’m willing to take a flier on him here. Like Scott, this track accentuates his strengths on approach and minimizes his weakness of driving accuracy.

The 2021 Masters champion has proven that he can excel on this course with its huge variations in elevation and uneven lies with his elite approach play as he has three finishes of fourth or better in five appearances. If Matsuyama is healthy, and I don’t believe he would sacrifice the time around the holidays to head to Hawaii if he wasn’t at least close, I think he has a shot to contend if not win sooner than later in 2023.

I’ll sprinkle him to finish in the top five for the fourth time here at 600 on bet365.