2023 the Memorial Tournament Odds & Expert PGA Tour Picks: Bet Tyrrell Hatton & Viktor Hovland at Muirfield Village
Via Andrew Redington/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyrrell Hatton of England watches his shot from the fourth tee during the first round of the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club on May 18, 2023 in Rochester, New York.
Click arrow to expand the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday odds via bet365
|Si Woo Kim||+5500|
The PGA Tour heads to Jack's place to play the 2023 edition of the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday. The Memorial is already regarded as one of the most prestigious non-majors of the PGA Tour season, and this year the Tour has added even more juice by making the tournament a designated event.
Muirfield Village Golf Club is a 7,571-yard par-72 located in Dublin, Ohio that features Bentgrass greens. A Jack Nicklaus design, the course was built in 1974 and redesigned by Nicklaus in 2020. The course can play extremely difficult due to its long rough and lightning-fast greens.
The Memorial Tournament will play host to 120 golfers this week. Being a designated event, the field is predictably stacked and will feature most of the biggest stars on Tour. Notable players who are skipping this week include Tony Finau, Max Homa and Justin Rose.
Past Winners at the Memorial Tournament
- 2022: Billy Horschel (-13)
- 2021: Patrick Cantlay (-13)
- 2020: Jon Rahm (-9)
- 2019: Patrick Cantlay (-19)
- 2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-15)
- 2017: Jason Dufner (-13)
- 2016: William McGirt (-15)
Five Key Stats for Muirfield Village
Let's take a look at five key metrics for Muirfield Village to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
1. Strokes Gained: Approach
Jack Nicklaus designs all have one thing in common: They reward the best iron players on Tour. When designing Muirfield Village, Jack created a second-shot golf course that strongly benefited golfers who could really dial in their approach shots. With that in mind, does it surprise anyone that Tiger Woods won this event five times?
Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Jon Rahm (+29.1)
- Scottie Scheffler (+27.8)
- Collin Morikawa (+27.0)
- Viktor Hovland (+26.3)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+22.1)
2. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking does include approach, but if there is any week to overemphasize Strokes Gained: Approach, this is the week. The statistic also incorporates Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, which will be important considering the rough at Muirfield Village can be exceedingly penal.
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Scheffler (+56.5)
- Patrick Cantlay (+47.1)
- Viktor Hovland (45.3)
- Jon Rahm (+36.1)
- Collin Morikawa (+35.3)
3. Good Drives Gained
Driving the ball well will be an important factor. Bombing it off the tee is not a requirement at Muirfield Village, but distance always helps. The rough can get very long, and golfers who can't put the ball in the fairway will fall out of contention quickly. Balanced and consistent drivers of the golf ball should be the targets this week.
Good Drives Gained Over Past 24 Rounds
- Patrick Cantlay (+29.7)
- Scottie Scheffler (+28.4)
- Denny McCarthy (+27.1)
- Tom Kim (+24.7)
- Shane Lowry (+24.6)
4. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass – Fast)
The Bentgrass greens at Muirfield are lightning quick. Whoever can master these difficult putting surfaces has a major advantage at Jack's place.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass – Fast) Over Past 24 Rounds
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+34.1)
- Patrick Cantlay (+30.9)
- Denny McCarthy (+21.8)
- Alex Noren (+21.6)
- Justin Lower (+20.4)
5. Strokes Gained: Nicklaus Designs
We often see similar leaderboards when events are hosted by Jack Nicklaus designed courses. The model this week will look to incorporate those golfers.
Strokes Gained: Nicklaus Designs Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.9)
- Collin Morikawa (+2.8)
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.4)
- Jon Rahm (+1.9)
- Russell Henley (+1.7)
The Memorial Tournament Model Rankings
Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: BS (18%), Good Drives Gained (22%), SG: Putting Bentgrass – Fast (17%), and SG: Total Nicklaus Designs (17%).
- Patrick Cantlay
- Jon Rahm
- Scottie Scheffler
- Viktor Hovland
- Xander Schauffele
- Shane Lowry
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Collin Morikawa
- Denny McCarthy
2023 Memorial Tournament Picks
Viktor Hovland +2000 (FanDuel)
Viktor Hovland has been evolving as a player in 2023 and seems to be on the cusp of a breakthrough victory in the continental United States. The 25-year-old has played his best golf in the biggest events this year, including a third-place finish at THE PLAYERS Championship, a seventh-place finish at the Masters, and a tie for 2nd at the PGA Championship.
Although he hasn't shown it thus far at the Memorial, Muirfield Village should be an ideal fit for Hovland. The course has typically favored elite ball strikers, which Hovland is and then some. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks fourth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and third in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. He's also been extremely consistent with the driver and ranks ninth in the field in Good Drives Gained.
While the strong finishes at the Memorial haven't been there, Hovland does have an encouraging result at Muirfield Village. He played in the 2020 Workday Charity Open and finished third. The course played a bit easier for that tournament, but it does give some confidence that the course can suit his eye when his game is clicking.
At this point, it's not a matter of if Hovland can nab his first big victory but rather a matter of when.
Tyrrell Hatton +3300 (FanDuel)
Tyrrell Hatton is arguably having his most consistent season on the PGA Tour. He's only missed one cut this season and has finished in the top 20 in seven of his last 10 starts.
Hatton has been immensely impressive in designated events as his game has risen to the challenge. He's finished sixth at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, fourth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, second at THE PLAYERS Championship, 19th at the RBC Heritage and third at the Wells Fargo Championship.
While researching for the week, I couldn't help but notice a strong link between the Memorial leaderboards and the DP World Tour's BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth. Hatton won the BMW PGA in 2020 but has only played the Memorial once, finishing 33rd in 2019. Given that Hatton is in much better form right now than in 2019, I believe Muirfield Village could be a course that may really suit the Englishman.
In his past three starts, Hatton has gained an average of 3.5 strokes on approach on the field and 1.7 strokes off the tee. He's also been really hot with the putter. In an event that could play pretty tough, I trust Hatton to go blow-for-blow with the best players in the world if he gets in contention.
Hideki Matsuyama +4000 (FanDuel)
If you could build the perfect player (besides Tiger Woods) to compete at Muirfield Village, it might be Hideki Matsuyama. He is a fantastic iron player who is spectacular around the greens and does his best work on Bentgrass. We also have a good deal of evidence to back up his course fit. Hideki got his first career win at Muirfield Village back in 2014 and has been great there ever since. After the victory, Matsuyama has posted finishes of fifth, 13th and sixth among seven starts at the course.
Matsuyama's health has been a concern all year long, but it seems as if he's finally turned a corner. Recently, his approach numbers are more consistent with what we've grown accustomed to with the Japanese star. In his two starts this month, he's gained 5.1 strokes (AT&T Byron Nelson) and 4.1 strokes (PGA Championship) on the field on approach. Matsuyama struck it fantastically at Oak Hill, gaining 10.6 strokes from tee to green, which ranked eighth in the field.
Matusyama's strong play at the PGA Championship combined with a week of rest following the major makes me confident he'll be healthy and ready to go at one of his favorite courses on Tour in Muirfield Village.
Shane Lowry +5500 (FanDuel)
Backing Shane Lowry over the past few seasons has gotten frustrating at times given his poor form with the putter. However, history has shown that Muirfield Village is a spot where poor putters have typically overcome their putting woes given the purity of the Bentgrass greens.
Aside from the putting, Lowry has been statistically excellent of late. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 10th in Ball Striking and fifth in Good Drives Gained. The Irishman also played great at the PGA Championship, finishing 12th. He gained 5.5 strokes on approach and 3.7 strokes off the tee at Oak Hill, which gives me confidence he can replicate or improve on that type of performance this week at Muirfield Village.
Earlier, I spoke about the seemingly strong correlation between Murifield Village and Wentworth, and that's a connection that should benefit Lowry if it holds true. Lowry won the BMW PGA Championship last year and also has a recent sixth-place finish (2021) at the Memorial Tournament.
Lowry gains almost a stroke on the field per tournament when the event plays difficult, and I expect it will once again this week. If he can putt slightly above field average, I believe Lowry can win at Jack's place.