2023 Tour Championship Picks & FedExCup Odds: Bets for Scottie Scheffler & Xander Schauffele

We did it, guys. We finally made it to the 2023 Tour Championship. After 46 tournaments over 11-and-a-half months, we’ve reached the end of the line for the 2022-2023 PGA Tour schedule and the FedExCup Playoffs, which conclude with this week’s Tour Championship.

Yup, after this week, golf is totally done for a while… well, except for finalizing the Ryder Cup rosters… and playing that event next month… and whatever is going on with the infamous framework agreement… oh, and the seven-tournament fall schedule which kicks off in three weeks that isn’t really part of this season and isn’t really part of next season.

But yeah, we’re done!

Alright, so professional golf never really ends – that’s the beauty of it, or so I’ve been told – but at least there will be some finality at East Lake, where once again Scottie Scheffler begins the week at 10-under, leading by two strokes in a staggered scoring start.

We’ll get to the selections in two different markets for the season finale soon enough, but first I want to use this space to address something that took place over the weekend.

Playing the 17^th hole in the final pairing during the third round of the BMW Championship, Max Homa stood over a short birdie putt. He heard a nearby fan talking about winning $3 if he missed it, then heard him yell, “Pull it!” as he stroked the putt. It went into the hole, but this shined a spotlight on what could continue to become an issue.

As the PGA Tour leans into legalized gaming, with five official betting operators and increased live betting opportunities which are being promoted throughout its platforms, there were always going to be some pratfalls along the way.

Look, if you’re reading this preview, you’ve probably leaned into gaming yourself, knowledgeable in the inherent ways it produces a symbiotic relationship between a sport’s product and its fanbase, offering a personal investment that leads to more engagement.

Unlike football or other raucous spectator sports, however, results in a golf tournament can be impacted by fan interaction. It’s not difficult to connect the dots from lubed-up fans yelling after a swing to lubed-up fans with a personal investment yelling during a swing.

I tweeted about this incident, and among the replies were a few who rightfully pointed out that this had nothing to do with legalized wagering – the fan had a side bet with a friend which had nothing to do with outright bets or live odds or anything of the sort.

There were also, though, plenty of replies about potential penalties for such behavior, none of which seem very feasible.

Kick him out of the tournament? Sure, but as Homa alluded to, it occurred on the 17^th hole of the day, which means you’re essentially just helping the guy beat traffic.

Arrest him? As much as many of us would like to consider this a crime against humanity, “yelling while putting” wouldn’t warrant anything more than a citation for disturbing the peace or disorderly conduct – and even that would be a stretch.

Ban him from future events? That would require every spectator show identification before entering every event, not to mention the fact that Chicago (sadly) won’t host another one for a long time.

Therein lies the biggest problem.

If a spectator can yell in a backswing and impact the result to potentially win a wager without penalty, the obvious reward outweighs the lack of any risk.

So, what’s the solution? I honestly don’t have a great one, other than imploring fellow bettors to follow the rules and remind them that the betting gods are a vengeful bunch. It’s not worth winning the battle when it could mean losing the war.

Anyway, back to this week’s finale, where Scheffler already owns a two-shot lead over Viktor Hovland, three over Rory McIlroy, four over Jon Rahm, five over Lucas Glover and as many as 10 strokes over those at the bottom of this 30-man field at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.

Books are once again offering markets for results both with the staggered start and without, so I’ll do the same with my selections below, beginning with an all-too-obvious one.

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Tour Championship Outright Picks

Tour Championship Outright Winner

One player to win the tournament (with staggered start)

Scottie Scheffler (+160)

One year ago, Scottie Scheffler entered the Tour Championship as the No. 1 player on the FedExCup Points List, owning the same two-shot advantage as he does now. He opened with scores of 65-66-66, which seemed like enough to get the victory, but a final-round 73 left him one stroke shy of Rory McIlroy, who’d rallied from six back to start.

It’s no secret that Scheffler has struggled to close recently, despite playing historically great golf from tee to green. Since his last win five months ago, he has nine top-five finishes in 13 starts. It’s not difficult to figure out that if he’d been given a lead to start, many of those top fives would’ve culminated in victories instead.

That’s the case this week, as another opportunity with this advantage won’t be kicked away. I get that it’s an uncommonly short number here, so my recommendation is to potentially wait a round or two, see if a few players inch closer and move those odds, then play him live.

Tour Championship Outright Winner (Without Starting Strokes)

One player to win the tournament (without starting strokes)

Xander Schauffele (+1400)

Since the format of the Tour Championship was changed in 2019, Xander Schauffele has finished 2^nd-1^st-3^rd-6^th on the 72-hole leaderboard at East Lake.

That means the format change has potentially cost him millions of dollars. It also means there’s something about having his back against the wall and starting behind other players which really gets Schauffele moving.

This week, he’ll begin at 3-under, seven behind Scottie Scheffler, while fresh off a T8 in Chicago, his best result in three months. There’s no reason to buck the trend now, so let’s stick with history and play Schauffele to once again go low in Atlanta.

Tour Championship One-and-Done Picks

Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done pools

Rory McIlroy

My first rule of betting is to always know exactly what the wager is, which sounds simple enough until you get to the 17^th tee of a match and hear your opponent has re-pressed the press of the press to the original press and offered up a closest-to-the-pin add-on, all while you’re still trying to count up the bingo, bango, bongo points from the front-nine.

Or maybe that’s just me.

Anyway, that rule comes into play here, as you’ve gotta know whether your OAD is using the staggered scoring start or just the 72-hole leaderboard. In either case, last year’s champion Rory McIlroy isn’t a bad play if you’ve still got him.

Remember: One-and-done picks are like timeouts in football; you can’t take ‘em with you, so might as well use ‘em up while you have ‘em.

Collin Morikawa

Like many others who will need a captain’s pick next week, Collin Morikawa wants to make one last impression on Zach Johnson to help his Ryder Cup cause.

After finishing 13^th and 25^th in the first two playoff events, he’ll need a strong week to separate from the likes of Cameron Young, Sam Burns, Lucas Glover and Keegan Bradley, each of whom is also likely near the bottom end of that current list of potential selections.

Keegan Bradley

I’ll throw Keegan Bradley into this category for the same reason as Morikawa – after going 43^rd-29^th the past two weeks, it might take something really special this week to move into a roster spot, but the Ryder Cup means so much to Bradley that you know he’ll be doing everything he can to try and make it happen.

Tour Championship Placement Bets

Top-Five

One player to finish in the top five (with staggered start)

Max Homa (+200 for top-five finish)

After a T5 last week, Max Homa will start this one at 4-under, in a share of sixth place on the staggered board. It’s hardly a stretch to think he’ll move up one notch and post a top-five, but I really think this could be a sweat-free top-five, as he makes a serious run at the FedEx Cup title.

Top Five

One player to finish in the top five (without staggered start)

Sungjae Im

I’ve been bullish on Sungjae Im for the past month or so, and he’s paid that off, more or less, with finishes of 14^th at the Wyndham, sixth at FedEx St. Jude and seventh at the BMW.

Last year at East Lake, he posted four rounds of 67 or better, so there’s reason to believe the Atlanta transplant will prosper in his new home once again.

Top 10

One player to finish in the top 10 (with staggered start)

Tom Kim (+190 for top-10 finish)

On Sunday at Olympia Fields, Tom Kim posted a 7-under 63 with the fourth-best ball-striking numbers in the field. With another week to presumably allow his injured ankle to heal, this should be a nice momentum play, knowing that he’ll have a lengthy break after this week.

Top-10

One player to finish in the top 10 (without staggered start)

Corey Conners

With 23 players in this week’s 30-man field eligible for the upcoming Ryder Cup, even if a few are unlikely to be considered as captain’s picks, it might not be a bad idea to look toward those who don’t have a potential international competition looming in a few weeks.

Corey Conners is a player whom I liked a lot last week. The Canadian finished T10, though his driver/irons combo were on point, as usual. He’d gained strokes with the putter in his three previous starts, so just a lukewarm week on the greens again should lead to another top-10 finish.

Tour Championship DFS Picks

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups

Viktor Hovland

It’s happened before – especially during the final few playoff events: A player gets hot, wins a tournament, but instead of fading his way down the leaderboard in subsequent starts, he steps on the gas pedal and keeps it going.

Nobody was hotter for an important nine-hole stretch this year than Viktor Hovland, who played the back nine at Olympia Fields in 28 strokes to claim the victory. I’d expect him to be especially popular in DFS this week, but for good reason.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Russell Henley

With only 30 players in the field, you’ll have to get a little weird in tournament lineups, either bypassing the top handful of players or saving a bunch of money under the salary cap. Russell Henley is fresh off three consecutive top-10 finishes and should be a very strong course fit for East Lake.

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low round Thursday

Tommy Fleetwood (+25000 for FRL)

Over the past few years, Tommy Fleetwood has found new and creative ways to keep from claiming his first career PGA Tour victory, from watching Nick Taylor hole a 72-foot putt in the RBC Canadian Open playoff to missing his own birdie attempt to get into a playoff two weeks ago in Memphis.

Wouldn’t it be the most Fleetwood thing ever if he posts the low 72-hole score this week and still doesn’t get credit for a win? That’s certainly a possibility, though I’ll suggest him for FRL here, as he’s posted 66 in two of his last three Thursday rounds and ranks 38^th in R1 scoring average this season.