2023 U.S. Open Odds, Predictions, Rankings: Scheffler, DeChambeau Among Best Course Fits

The PGA Tour season has reached the third major of the year, as the 2023 U.S. Open heads to the Los Angeles Country Club — and that means it's time for us to break down the data and take a look at the best course fits for the 2023 U.S. Open Odds and our Predictions.

Los Angeles Country Club (North) is a par-70 measuring 7,530 yards. The course features Bermudagrass rough, Bermudagrass fairways and Bentgrass greens.

LACC has relatively wide fairways with plenty of hills and run-off areas. George C. Thomas Jr. designed the course in 1921, and it was renovated by Gil Hanse in 2010.

The course hosted the 2017 Walker Cup, which the United States won, but this is the first major championship at LACC.

The U.S. Open field will feature 156 of the best players in the world with only the top 60 and ties making it through to the weekend. 

2023 U.S. Open Odds, Predictions, Rankings: Scheffler, DeChambeau Among Best Course Fits

Past Winners at U.S. Open

• 2022: Matt Fitzpatrick (-6)
• 2021: Jon Rahm (-6)
• 2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6)
• 2019: Gary Woodland (-13)
• 2018: Brooks Koepka (+1)
• 2017: Brooks Koepka (-16)
• 2016: Dustin Johnson (-4)
• 2015: Jordan Spieth (-5)
• 2014: Martin Kaymer (-9)
• 2013: Justin Rose (+1)
• 2012: Webb Simpson (+1)

Five Key Stats for Los Angeles Country Club

Let's take a look at six key metrics for LACC to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

As usual, Strokes Gained: Approach will be a major factor at the U.S. Open.

The greens at Los Angeles Country Club are relatively large by PGA Tour standards but have multiple levels where finding the correct spot is extremely important. Considering that many of the approach shots are going to come from greater than 175 yards with a lower trajectory, the best iron players will have a chance to separate themselves from the field.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Scottie Scheffler (+40.6)
2. Jon Rahm (+36.3)
3. Wyndham Clark (+26.4)
4. Collin Morikawa (+26.4)
5. Viktor Hovland (+21.0)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

The fairways are relatively wide, but it'll be important to have control of the golf ball as it'll be tough to keep the ball on the green on long approach shots from the Bermuda rough. Distance will absolutely be a factor as the course plays brutally long. Great drivers of the golf ball will have a major advantage at LACC.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds:

1. Patrick Cantlay (+29.2)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+29.1)
3. Bryson DeChambeau (+18.2)
4. Gary Woodland (+17.6)
5. Cameron Young (+17.0)

3. Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With long and difficult approach shots, players will undoubtedly miss plenty of greens.

LACC has plenty of ways to challenge golfers. Some greens will have shaven run-off areas, while others are protected by rough. The bunkers around the green will also cause some trouble.

Players will have to have a crafty short game to get out of trouble this week.

Strokes Gained: Around the Green Over Past 24 Rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+18.2)
2. Matt Kuchar (+14.5)
3. Chris Kirk (+13.4)
4. Rickie Fowler (+13.0)
5. Tommy Fleetwood (+12.1)

4. Strokes Gained: Total (Par-70 Over 7,400 Yards)

LACC is extremely long, especially for a par-70. Many of the par-4s and three of the five par-3s will be daunting due to their length, and shorter hitters will have to play flawlessly to compete. This stat highlights players who have been successful on these types of tracks.

Strokes Gained: Total (Par-70 Over 7,400 Yards)

1. Brooks Koepka (+57.6)
2. Hideki Matsuyama (+29.6)
3. Dustin Johnson (+27.5)
4. Jason Day (+27.4)
5. Tyrrell Hatton (+22.9)

5. Proximity 175+ Yards

Many of the approach shots this week will come from 175 yards or greater. The best long iron players will have a significant advantage at LACC.

Proximity 175+ Yards Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Jon Rahm (+23.5)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+21.4)
3. Viktor Hovland (+19.8)
4. Hideki Matsuyama (+18.2)
5. Justin Rose (+16.8)

2023 U.S. Open Model Rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (27%), SG: Around the Green (17.3%), Strokes Gained: Total Par-70 Over 7,400 (17.3%) and Proximity 175+ Yards (12%).

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Tyrrell Hatton
4. Viktor Hovland
5. Hideki Matsuyama
6. Tony Finau
7. Rickie Fowler
8. Tommy Fleetwood
9. Patrick Cantlay
10. Si Woo Kim
11. Brooks Koepka
12. Jason Day
13. Jordan Spieth
14. Xander Schauffele
15. Mito Pereira 

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2023 U.S. Open Picks

Scottie Scheffler +750 (FanDuel)

I typically don't bet the favorite, but if there's a place to do it, it's the U.S. Open.

Scottie Scheffler this season is playing some of the best golf we've ever seen, with only his putter holding him back. In his past five starts, Scheffler has gained an average of 14.1 strokes on the field from tee to green.

In his most recent start at the Memorial Tournament, he gained a whopping 20.7 strokes from tee to green. Remarkably, he finished only one shot out of a playoff while losing 8.5 strokes putting.

Throughout the past decade or so, we've seen players win the U.S. Open after having strong finishes in one or both of the major championships leading into their U.S. Open start. Scheffler finished second at the PGA Championship behind Brooks Koepka, which I believe puts him in a great spot to win this week.

Scottie also finished second at last year's U.S. Open, demonstrating his ability to play well in a difficult USGA setup.

In his past 24 rounds, Scheffler ranks first in Strokes Gained: Approach, second in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, first in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, and first in Proximity from 175+ yards.

The poor putting is a concern, but I believe he will get it figured out this week. If he putts close to field average, it seems unlikely that anyone can compete with the 26-year-old from tee to green.

Sometimes the simplest answer is the best answer. Scheffler is playing historically great golf at the moment and is a favorite worth backing.

Pick: Scottie Scheffler Outright +750

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Bryson DeChambeau +6000 (DraftKings)

A LIV golfer won the PGA Championship, and it wouldn't surprise me if another won the U.S. Open. Except this time, he may be a little bit farther down the betting board.

I believe plenty of people in the golf community have prematurely written off DeChambeau, at age 29, as one of the world's top players. Bryson was as decorated an amateur and collegiate player as you'll find and has won on the PGA Tour eight times prior to his 30th birthday.

U.S. Open winners have typically shown some positive form in that season's previous majors, so DeChambeau's play at the PGA Championship (fourth) provides some optimism for his chances this week.

His performance at Oak Hill was extremely impressive. He gained 7.5 strokes off the tee, which led the field by a significant margin. Scheffler ranked second for the week at 5.9 strokes gained. He also gained 4.4 strokes on approach, which ranked him 15th for the week.

DeChambeau is a California native who has a solid track record in his home state. He's had a top-five finish at Riviera and was also right in the mix at the 2020 PGA Championship at Harding Park, finishing fourth there as well. He went on to win the U.S. Open the next month at Winged Foot, which is also a Gil Hanse design (Hanse redesigned LACC in 2010).

DeChambeau will let the driver rip this week, which gives him an advantage over the rest of the field.

Many have written him off as a player who is not among the game's elite, but I believe he's just getting started and will win more major championships when all is said and done.