2024 American Express Data Driven Picks: Players to Watch Friday
(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images). Pictured: Si Woo Kim.
Just when you thought tracking a golf tournament couldn't get more challenging, the PGA Tour raised the stakes in what it provided Thursday at the American Express.
We all knew about the issues that would come into play from two of the three venues not having 'Stat Tracker.' Nobody was shocked when they opened their app and couldn't retrieve information at La Quinta or the Nicklaus Tournament Course. However, things collapsed even further when they couldn't get the one track with that capability to run properly in round one.
I saw players getting their scores changed every two seconds. J.T. Poston may have played the fifth hole about 17 times when they finally updated and fixed it. Unfortunately, it was another rugged look for a tour in desperate need to get things appropriately handled before reaching full-blown Armageddon.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 American Express Data
With data available only at the PGA West Stadium Course this week, finding helpful information in the space will be challenging. How someone gained at La Quinta and the Nicklaus Tournament Course will generate its limitations daily.
The best way to go about this process is to highlight the top scorers at each track and figure out how many strokes over/under par they were compared to everyone else playing the same venue on the day. It is not a perfect science because it still limits how those strokes were earned, but let's start with where we have the most valuable returns and go from there.
PGA West Stadium Course Leaderboard
(-2.13 Under Par Average)
Nine players teeing it up at the more difficult Stadium Course gained a minimum of 2.87 shots against the field Thursday. That included three eight-under par rounds from Hayden Springer, Scott Stallings and Mac Meissner. The trio landed 5.87 shots above field average, yielding the most significant differential when diving into the three venues.
Despite those scores, my model believed Eric Cole and J.T. Poston were the two to watch at La Quinta tomorrow, as each carried top-15 projected win equity totals from outside the top 20 of the leaderboard. Anything that mimics this production output over their competitors in round two could be the advantage needed to skyrocket themselves to the top of the leaderboard.
Ball-Striking At The Stadium Course
The biggest takeaway for me on day one was Daniel Berger. The American exceeded all expectations during his first start on tour since the 2022 U.S. Open. Massive applause is in order, and the fact he finished in the top 12 for off-the-tee and approach returns versus Stadium Course competitors was a significant sign that the game might be closer to his former elite level than some projected pre-event.
Nicklaus Tournament Leaderboard
(-3.35 Under Par Average)
I don't know how much outright value from this section you will get at the numbers I have seen in the space. The problem is that most shops have protected themselves against players like Sungjae Im, Min Woo Lee, Adam Hadwin and Matthieu Pavon. I do want to note that I like all four, but the issue is this group gets the marginally more challenging Stadium Course tomorrow. A bad round will eliminate their chances, while a good day likely keeps them afloat at these prices heading into Saturday.
If you have access to live betting, I wouldn't mind keeping an eye to see how any of their rounds are progressing, because books could be slow to adjust their numbers until after round two finishes. That might be the savvy way to approach gaining exposure versus doing it Thursday night.
La Quinta Leaderboard
(-4.52 Under Par Average)
I tend to think that a failure to gain against the field Thursday at La Quinta could inevitably be too harsh of a task to overcome. Unfortunately, that would mean one of our outright bets in Tony Finau would be on life support heading into the Nicklaus Course tomorrow. I'd project he needs to match one of those eight- or nine-under totals from the Thursday competitors to get back into the mix, and even then, I question how much that helps if he doesn't follow it up with the same score Saturday at the Stadium.
I do like where Si Woo Kim stands on the leaderboard since he has spoken highly of the Stadium Course over the years. We have seen him gain with the flat stick all four years, including a total that helped to propel him to a victory in 2021. We might be jumping the gun slightly since he needs to survive the Nicklaus Tournament Course on Friday, although day one did present one of the best-case scenarios for our 50/1 shot.
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