2024 Houston Open Round 2 Data-Driven Pick: Fade Chris Gotterup on Friday
(Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) Pictured: Chris Gotterup.
What we are watching with Scottie Scheffler is truly poetry in motion.
It's been over 50 holes since his last bogey and 200+ since his last double bogey. He also produced a record-setting 28th consecutive round shooting under par on Thursday when he fired a five-under 65.
The run hasn't quite been Tiger-esque because of Scheffler's lack of ability to gain strokes with the flat stick, but four out of five being positive with that portion of his game should have the entire field fearful of him going back-to-back-to-back after earning 2.6 with the putter Thursday.
We can announce the winner early if that continues over the next few days.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Houston Open Round 2 Predictions
Kevin Dougherty +105 over Chris Gotterup (Bet365)
As I do every week, I ran a portion of my model to indicate who the most significant overachievers were Thursday at the Texas Children's Houston Open. I am unsure if Scheffler making that list is good or bad for the field, since how can you beat an unstoppable force once he starts overachieving compared to his projected score? Still, a handful of noteworthy fade options not named Scheffler popped to the forefront of the conversation heading into Friday that we might want to consider taking on in a matchup.
One of those options for me was Chris Gotterup, a golfer my model believed was overvalued heading into the week, even before his 3.52-shot overachievement Thursday.
Gotterup failed to gain strokes ball-striking after landing outside the top 65 for both Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Strokes Gained: Approach. The 3.39 strokes he earned with the putter landed him first in the field, although that number placed him in a territory nearly three strokes above his expected baseline performance.
Sometimes, I will ignore those factors when my model grades a golfer as a top-40 projected candidate for the event because, yes, he overachieved, but it is not as if it came entirely out of left field. However, the concerns with the driver and iron play that I had pre-event were only heightened after Thursday.
Gotterup ranked 62nd for me pre-event with his driver, which just so happened to be his comparative strength when diving into the 120th-place rank he possessed for weighted proximity.
There are other options in the market against Gotterup if you don't have access to this wager, but I thought the wrong man was favored here in round two.
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