Arnold Palmer Invitational Market Report: Sam Burns is a Surprising Trendy Bet
Photo by Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Sam Burns
It’s not surprising that Sam Burns is a popular name at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill this week.
It is surprising he’s the most popular name.
According to data released by BetMGM, no golfer in the field this week has received more bets than Burns, who is listed at +4500 to win for the first time on the PGA TOUR. That’s made him the sportsbook’s biggest liability this weekend.
Burns was the 54-hole leader at The Genesis Invitational, eventually finishing third behind Max Homa and Tony Finau. He’s made eight out of 10 cuts this season, including three top-10s. Bettors don’t want to miss out when he finally captures that elusive win.
There’s reason to believe in him, according to Jason Sobel and Justin Ray. When Sobel mentioned Burns’ game travels well, Ray echoed with support of his own on the latest Action Network Podcast.
“I’m all over Sam Burns as well,” Ray said. “My favorite Sam Burns note … he’s an amazing putter in Florida. He’s averaging 1.3 Strokes Gained: Putting in Florida, by far the best of any player the last three seasons.”
He’s Ray’s choice for a top-five finish and first-round leader.
Outside of Burns, Viktor Hovland (+1100) and Jordan Spieth (+2800) are getting the most bets at BetMGM. Hovland made a run in the final round last week at the WGC-Workday but ultimately fell short to Collin Morikawa. This is Spieth’s first time playing the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Most of the money wagered is on the favorite, Rory McIlroy. He’s taken more than 26% of the total betting handle, including a $5,000 bet to win $45,000, the largest wager made public by the sportsbook. That $5,000 wager is the same amount a bettor will take home on a $1 bet should Robert Gamez win.
Burns is the fifth-most bet golfer at PointsBet, who has seen the most wagers come in on Hovland, followed by Matthew Fitzpatrick. McIlroy has the biggest handle there as well, with Bryson DeChambeau second in total money taken to win.
Cameron Davis (+8000) has the longest odds of the 10 most popular bets at PointsBet. Justin Rose (+6600) has the longest odds of the 10 golfers with the most handle.
PointsBet reported three potential six-figure payouts on outrights. A bettor placed $500 to win $150,000 on Joel Dahmen to win. There’s a $520 bet to win $130,000 on Patrick Rodgers to win. Finally, someone has $500 on Charles Howell III to win $125,000.