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The PGA TOUR heads to Japan this week for the Baycurrent Classic.
I'm not a fan of the limited field with no cut events, but at least we have a decent field teeing it up. This is only the second edition of the event, which means we only have one year of data to work with when it comes to course fit.
To make matters worse, we don't have any ShotLink data from the 2025 Baycurrent Classic, so we are flying blind in terms of what it takes to win here.
However, we can still rely on our standard tee-to-green metrics and recent form. I've managed to pick a few winners in these events in Japan over the years, so let's hope we can add another to the resume.
Let's take a look at my Baycurrent Classic picks and PGA Tour predictions for this week's tournament at Yokohama Country Club. Make sure to download the Action Network App for more picks and analysis!
Baycurrent Classic Preview
Yokohama Country Club will play as a blend of two different courses. The course will play as a Par 71 that measures 7,322 yards. The scoring conditions were relatively easy last year, with Xander Schauffele winning with a score of -19.
The course features generous and undulating fairways that are heavily lined with trees. If you stray too far offline, you will have a tough time hitting the green in regulation. In 2025, the average Driving Distance was 291 yards, and the average Driving Accuracy was 69%. My favorite driving metrics this week are Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Good Drive Percentage.
The greens at Yokohama Country Club are average in size (6,500 square feet) and feature bentgrass. They should run around 11.5 on the stimpmeter, which is on the slower side. Players hit these greens in regulation 65% of the time last year. Tough to hit greens places an emphasis on both approach play and around-the-green play.
Ultimately, it's hard to have a firm course fit with only one year of limited data.
Baycurrent Classic Predictions, Picks
I'm keeping the betting card pretty light this week. I have two outright bets, four top 10 bets, and three top 20 bets. As usual, here are the results of my 20,000 simulations of the event, sorted by my model's win probability. The three columns on the right show positive or negative betting values based on current market odds.
Collin Morikawa to win (+1600 — BetMGM) / Top 10 (+170 — Caesars)
Morikawa has had a strong year. In only 16 events, he has a win (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am) and six more Top-10 finishes — he missed some time due to a back injury, but he seems back to full health at this point.
He's finished in the Top 20 in five of his last six events, and he played very well at the Presidents Cup.
He plays well on all types of courses because his two biggest strengths are hitting fairways and iron play.
The sneaky part is that over the last six months, he's seventh in this field in Strokes Gained: Putting. He already has a win in Japan (2023 ZOZO Championship), and he finished T20 at this event last year (with much worse form).
Matt Wallace to win (+3500 — Caesars) / Top 10 (+340 — FanDuel)
Wallace got steamed a bit at last week's Bank of Utah Championship, but he missed the cut. I'm not overly concerned, as he missed it by one stroke and was playing some phenomenal golf before that.
He had a streak of six straight Top-15 finishes with some elite tee-to-green numbers during that stretch. He's more comfortable playing in Japan than most of the PGA TOUR regulars, as he's played all over the world throughout his career.
He's certainly a proven winner, as he's won once on the PGA TOUR and five times on the DP World Tour.
Ben Kohles Top 10 (+550 — BetRivers) / Top 20 (+230 — FanDuel)
Slowly but surely, Kohles is finally starting to get a little respect in the betting market — however, it's not nearly enough according to my model.
He's been playing as consistent a round of golf as nearly anyone on TOUR. He has rattled off 13 top-30 finishes in his last 14 starts with a win during that stretch.
He's been accurate off the tee, an elite iron player (second in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach), and a positive putter. I'm not sure he can win in this quality field, but I will once again back him to finish in the top 10 and top 20.
Davis Thompson Top 10 (+550 — BetRivers) / Top 20 (+210 — BetMGM)
Thompson is a tough player to predict, but the underlying metrics are enticing. He's an elite ball striker who can't chip or putt, at least not very often.
However, on the rare week when the short game does show up, he can contend in any field.
The model loves him as a Top 10 and Top 20 bet, even though he hasn't played great in his two starts so far this fall.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top 20 (+250 — FanDuel)
I've chased Bezuidenhout in the outright market for years, but now I have resigned myself to only betting on him in the placement markets.
In a field of only 72 golfers, he's +250 to finish in the Top 20 — I like those odds for one of the most steady golfers in this field.
He's a very good iron player and a very good putter, which can be a lethal combination when he's hitting fairways.
Good luck this week!
