2022 Charles Schwab Challenge Odds & Sleeper Picks: Harold Varner Among 3 Longshots to Target

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The week after a major on the PGA TOUR can feel like a letdown, but that’s not the case this week for a variety of reasons.

The TOUR heads to Colonial for the Charles Schwab Challenge, a favorite stop for many of the game’s best, which has led to a field with plenty of pop at the top. Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, and Collin Morikawa headline an impressive field.

In addition to Colonial’s prominence on the annual calendar, the movement of the PGA Championship from August to May has given the golf season an injection of energy. The US Open is just three weeks away, leaving few chances for players to stay in form and prepare for the next major on the schedule.

Those factors should make this weekend plenty exciting for fans, but bettors will be sliding their eyes further down the board looking for a dark horse to play at Colonial this weekend. These three longshots offer value at this venue:

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Harold Varner +6500

Colonial offers a unique test on the PGA TOUR. The TOUR has made a stop in Fort Worth every year since 1946. As the longest running annual (non-major) event held at the same venue, Colonial does not look, feel, or play like the other courses that pros seek on a weekly basis.

Instead of favoring bombers, Colonial is most advantageous for players who excel with their irons and around the greens. It’s no surprise that Dallas-Fort Worth native Jordan Spieth has found plenty of success at this venue.

Finding other players who boast those two skills is a key to cracking the case at Colonial. Over the last six months, only four players rank in the top 20 worldwide in Strokes Gained: Approach and Around the Green: Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, Russell Henley, and Harold Varner III.

Scheffler and Thomas, the top ranked player in the world and the freshly crowned PGA champion, respectively, are among the favorites this week, and Henley is not in the field.

Varner, however, has plenty of value further down the board. He hasn’t missed a cut since February and seems poised to best his previous high finish at this venue, a T19 in 2020.

Ian Poulter +13000

The European Ryder Cup legend is not playing the best golf of his career right now, but he does typically play well here at Colonial. He has played this event on eight occasions and finished in the top 15 in half of those starts, including a T3 finish just last year.

He finds ways to contend, largely on the strength of his putter. No player in this week’s field has gained more strokes per round on the greens over the last two years than Poulter, per DataGolf.

If you believe the tea leaves being dropped in the media, Poulter sounds like one of the bigger names considering leaving the PGA Tour for the Saudi-backed LIV Golf events being offered later this year.

It would be fitting for one of the game’s most prolific heels to collect his first win over four years before skipping town for good.

Emiliano Grillo +21000

Every long shot is a long shot for a reason, especially those paying out at odds as high as Grillo this week. The Argentinian is on the back half of his career, and it shows, with just three made cuts in his last 14 PGA Tour starts. He has not posted a top 20 since last July’s British Open.

There are reasons, however, to be optimistic about his chances this week.

Though he’s missed the cut in most of his starts this year, he made the weekend in each of his last two events, at the Mexico Open and Byron Nelson. A little upward trend goes a long way.

More importantly, he’s a horse for the course here at Colonial. Only six players in this week’s field with 12 or more rounds played at this course have gained more strokes per round than Grillo. His T8 finish last year was his most recent top 10 worldwide, and he also nabbed a T19 in 2019 and a solo third in 2018 here at Colonial.

It’s a long, long shot, but there’s some value behind it. Don’t be surprised to see Grillo post a decent score over 72 holes at a course where he feels comfortable.

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