2022 Farmers Insurance Open Odds, Longshot Picks: Max Homa Headlines 3 Dark Horse Bets
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Homa
2022 Farmers Insurance Open Odds via BetMGM
Click here to skip to betting preview.
|Si Woo Kim||+6600|
|Dawie van der Walt||+75000|
|Seung Yul Noh||+75000|
|Jared du Toit||+75000|
This weekend’s Farmers Insurance Open will feature the best field we’ve seen during the 2022 FedEx Cup season.
Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson and many of the world’s top-ranked players will be teeing it up at Torrey Pines, with the event scheduled to run Wednesday to Saturday. The TOUR hopes to attract a big audience with a Saturday finish before the NFL dominates the sports landscape on Sunday.
The influx of top talent certainly hurts the chances of a longshot winner, but it does help juice the odds for players further down the board. A group of players with momentum after a strong wraparound season or a history of strong play at Torrey Pines can be wagered on at a massive price this weekend.
Three names — all of which are being offered at +7000 or longer — stand out to me for longshot value this week:
Max Homa +8000
Max Homa enters the Farmers playing some sneaky good golf of late. His last three tournament rounds, all at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, were all sub-68. That is enough momentum to like his chances at Torrey Pines, where he has played well in the past. He posted a top-20 finish in each of the last two years at this event.
Homa has always played well in his home state of California. Each of his last two PGA TOUR wins came in the Golden State. In those wins, he showed some real skill on and around the greens, clearly thanks to some familiarity with playing on the West Coast. Homa was top-15 in Strokes Gained: putting and SG: Around the Green at his wins at the Fortinet Championship and the Genesis Invitational.
If Homa can post similar numbers this week, he’ll have a chance. In the history of this event, the winner gains 56.5 percent of his strokes on the field on and around the greens, about 6.5 percent higher than the average TOUR stop.
Francesco Molinari +10000
It has been a while since we’ve seen Molinari in the winner’s circle to end a golf tournament. His last win on TOUR was the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
That day, he was the World No. 7. Last week, he entered the American Express ranked 249th. His fall from the ranks has been swift and steep.
He did, however, jump back up the world rankings with a great performance in Palm Springs, earning a tie for sixth. That’s good news for Molinari entering the Farmers, where he has always excelled. Among players in this week’s field with 15 rounds at Torrey Pines South, he has the sixth-best strokes gained per round.
Last season, Molinari posted just three top-10 finishes. All three came during the PGA TOUR’s winter swing through California. He played well at last week’s American Express and I expect him to continue that uptick this week.
Brandt Snedeker +11000
If there is a horse for this course, it’s Sneds. In 45 career rounds at Torrey Pines South, he has gained 2.11 strokes per round on the field. Of the players in this week’s field with multiple rounds played at Torrey Pines, only Jon Rahm has fared better than Snedeker in that statistic.
In past tournaments at this course, he has shined. Snedeker has made the cut at this event seven straight years, with three top-10 finishes and a victory in that span.
Some of that success was years ago, when Snedeker was a top-50 golfer in the world, so it’s worth noting that he has earned just one top-10 in the last 24 months. He did finish T3 at this event in 2020, perhaps proving that if he’s going to catch fire somewhere, it’s here at Torrey Pines.
Maybe against a stacked field he’s not the smartest bet for an outright win, which would be his first since 2018, but the smart play is to take Snedeker to make the cut or find his way into the top-20.
How would you rate this article?
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.