This week, we head to The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland, for the Genesis Scottish Open.
While many golfers look to get into form over the course of the tournament, there are more ways to bet on this tournament than just who will emerge victorious on Sunday.
For more instant gratification, we turn to the first-round leader market to find value on who will sit atop the leaderboard when play comes to an end on Thursday.
Here are my favorite Genesis Scottish Open first-round leader picks and PGA Tour predictions for Thursday's opening round.
Genesis Scottish Open First-Round Leader Picks, Predictions
First-Round Leader Pick: Tommy Fleetwood (+4100, DraftKings)
The Renaissance Club stretches nearly 7,200 yards and requires strong long-iron play, particularly in windy conditions. Last year, more than 36% of approach shots at this course came from 200-plus yards, well above the PGA Tour average.
This setup makes Tommy Fleetwood a strong option this week. One of the tournament favorites, Fleetwood enters in good form with four consecutive top-14 finishes.
He is one of the best long-iron players in the world, gaining true strokes on approach in each of those four tournaments. Entering this week, Fleetwood ranks in the 92nd percentile in strokes gained: approach and in the 96th percentile in strokes gained: approach from 200-plus yards.
It is therefore not surprising that he has recorded two top-six finishes here over the past four years.
First-Round Leader Pick: Ludvig Aberg (+4100, FanDuel)
Another golfer worth targeting in Thursday’s opening round is Ludvig Aberg. Like Fleetwood, Aberg fits this course well.
Entering this week, he ranks in the 96th percentile on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach and in the 95th percentile in strokes gained: approach from 200-plus yards.
Players will also need to rely on their short game if windy conditions intensify. Last year, each of the top five finishers ranked among the top 14 in the field in strokes gained: putting.
No other strokes-gained category showed a similar trend.
Aberg has proven capable on the greens, ranking in the 82nd percentile on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting. He has also thrived at this venue, finishing inside the top eight in each of his past two appearances.
