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BMW Championship Round 3: Expert Predictions, Picks, Odds for Saturday, August 22

BMW Championship Round 3: Expert Predictions, Picks, Odds for Saturday, August 22 article feature image
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USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect. Pictured: Matt Fitzpatrick.

The third round of the 2026 BMW Championship gets underway on Saturday at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Missouri.

Wyndham Clark holds a one-shot lead over the rest of the field at 12-under par after the second round. With two days remaining, this tournament remains wide open.

Here are my picks and BMW Championship Round 3 best bets.

BMW Championship Round 3 Best Bets

Matt Fitzpatrick Top-20 (+110 at DraftKings)

Now is the time to buy low on Matt Fitzpatrick, who enters Saturday T25. At +110, he is worth backing to trend positively for the remainder of the tournament.

Accuracy is key this week. Bellerive Country Club penalizes errant shots due to its thick rough and abundance of deep bunkers and water hazards.

With accuracy off the tee and strong approach play necessary for success, Fitzpatrick is a great target in this market. He entered this tournament in great form with four top-12 finishes over his past six events.

A similar finish could be in store this week, given that Fitzpatrick ranks in the 87th percentile in driving accuracy and the 97th percentile in strokes gained: approach.

Ryan Gerard Top-20 (+122 at FanDuel)

Another golfer worth targeting in this market is Ryan Gerard. Producing a much stronger second round, Gerard is tied for 19th at 4-under par.

At +122, it's worth taking a shot on Gerard to maintain this momentum as the week progresses.

Like Fitzpatrick, Gerard fits this course well.

This season, he ranks in the 78th percentile in driving accuracy and the 86th percentile in strokes gained: approach. Gerard also enters this week in good form with two top-10 finishes over his past four tournaments.

Once on the greens, putting could help separate those at the top of the leaderboard. Putting performance accounts for a greater share of overall strokes gained at Bellerive than at the average PGA Tour venue, increasing the importance of a strong putter this week.

That bodes well for Gerard, who enters this week ranked in the 90th percentile in strokes gained: putting.

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