This week, we head to East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia, for the final leg of the FedEx Cup — the TOUR Championship.
While many golfers look to get into form over the course of the tournament, there are more ways to bet on this tournament than just who will emerge victorious on Sunday.
For more instant gratification, we turn to the first-round leader market to find value on who will sit atop the leaderboard when play comes to an end on Thursday.
Here are my favorite TOUR Championship first-round leader picks and PGA Tour predictions for Thursday's opening round.
TOUR Championship First-Round Leader Picks
First-Round Leader Pick: Xander Schauffele (+1600, FanDuel)
Putting separates the men from the boys at East Lake Golf Club. Last year, each of the top nine finishers here ranked inside the top 15 in the field in strokes gained: putting.
No other strokes-gained category showed a similar trend.
With strong putting necessary for success, Xander Schauffele is a great target in this market. These greens are no issue for Schauffele, who has finished inside the top seven in each of his eight career appearances at East Lake, including his win in 2017.
He also enters this week in good form with two top-seven finishes in his past three tournaments. He gained true strokes putting in each of those two outings, and if he can get the flat stick going Thursday, it would not be surprising to see Schauffele jump out to an early lead.
It is also worth noting that Schauffele was the first-round leader here in 2019.
First-Round Leader Pick: Sam Burns (+1800, FanDuel)
Another golfer worth targeting in Thursday’s opening round is Sam Burns. Like Schauffele, Burns fits this course well.
Arguably the best putter on the planet this year, he ranks in the 99th percentile in strokes gained: putting. The format changed last year, with everyone starting at even par, but that did not hurt Burns.
He finished the tournament T7 and ranked second in the field in strokes gained: putting. Burns has only improved since last year’s appearance at East Lake.
He has finished inside the top four in four of his past seven tournaments, with his putter playing a large role in that run. That said, Burns’ approach play has been nearly as dominant.
This season, he ranks in the 95th percentile in strokes gained: approach. His wedge play is particularly strong, as Burns ranks in the 99th percentile in strokes gained: approach from 100-150 yards.
Last year, roughly 34% of approach shots at East Lake came from the 100-150-yard range, well above the PGA Tour average.
