For the second leg of the FedExCup Tournament, we head to St. Louis, Missouri, for the BMW Championship at Bellerive Country Club.
We trim the field down to the top 50 golfers in the world before the TOUR Championship. Bellerive is a par-70 course, spanning just under 7,500 yards, featuring 12 par-4 holes, four par-3s, and two par-5s. To determine the best value for this weekend, we go to our staff to find out the best value picks.
Let's dive into our staff's BMW Championship picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week.
First Round Leader Pick: Scottie Scheffler (+1000)
By: Tony Sartori
Accuracy is key this week. Bellerive Country Club penalizes errant shots due to its thick rough, abundance of deep bunkers, and water hazards.
With accuracy off the tee and strong approach play necessary for success, Scottie Scheffler is a great target in this market. Scheffler returned to the win column last week with a dominant victory at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
In his current form, he could very well dominate the rest of the playoffs. A similar performance could be in store this week, given that Scheffler ranks in the 88th percentile in driving accuracy and the 99th percentile in strokes gained: approach.
Matchup Winner Pick: Collin Morikawa Over Justin Thomas (-111)
By: Spencer Aguiar
We are a week removed from Justin Thomas being one of the "sharper" bets on the board at the St. Jude Championship.
I didn't necessarily agree with all the hype around him. However, DFS slates had him as the top leverage play for big-money players, and we also saw him as the sharpest mover for the week in matchups and outright betting boards.
A very disappointing 47th took some of the wind out of his sails, but how much does it detract from a glowing, bettor-friendly profile that is a week removed from landing sharp across all market iterations?
For me, I am going to see this as a chance to fade a golfer who might be getting boosted by past viewpoints. As I said at the beginning, Thomas wasn't someone my model overly loved in Memphis.
Sure, a 21st-place rank in my sheet landed him inside a reasonable zone, but that 21st-place mark in a 69-man field has fallen way down the pecking order and now puts him 37th in a 50-man contest.
The iron play (especially from long distances) isn't what it was a few years back. While the driver-and-spike-putting combination has MASSIVE upside to propel him up this leaderboard, it is paired with a floor that has real red flags that require pure aggression if he wants to find himself at East Lake.
Thomas has historically clutched up in these moments when his back is against the wall, but I will bet on Morikawa's safer profile and view last week's horrible showing as nothing more than a blip on the radar.
Maybe that is too lackadaisical compared to what occurred, but I will trust the math here and take what I deem to be a value at -111. This is pretty widely available at the time of writing, which isn't always the case on some of these plays.
Outright Winner Pick: Ludvig Aberg (+1800)
By: Derek Farnsworth
It's strange how Aberg has gone from an industry favorite to the target of jokes on Twitter. I still believe in the talent and his ability to win on the PGA TOUR.
It's not like he's played poorly this season, either, as he's racked up eight Top 10s. He's one of the best ball strikers in the field, which should play well on what I expect to be a difficult golf course.
Over the last six months, he's eighth in this field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and sixth in Strokes Gained: Approach.
He finished T7 at last week's event, where he gained nearly six strokes ball striking and the course should fit him perfectly; he just needs to find a good week on the greens.
Top-5 Pick: Si Woo Kim (+500)
By: Derek Farnsworth
Kim finished solo 2nd last week in Memphis and has now posted three Top 7 finishes in his last four events. He doesn’t have a win this season, but he’s consistently been in contention.
Even though this course is extremely long for a Par 70, some of that length is hidden in two long Par 3s and two likely unreachable Par 5s.
In 2018, the Greens in Regulation rate from the fairway was 26% higher than it was from the rough, so I expect Total Driving to be especially important this week. Kim is one of the best in the field when it comes to that.
Along with that, he’s also an elite iron player as well as an excellent scrambler.
He missed the cut here in 2018, but he’s a completely different golfer at this stage of his career.
Outright Winner Pick: Hideki Matsuyama (+2700)
By: Jake Zach
Hideki Matsuyama is striking the ball too well to get off him now.
Last week he gained just under 10 strokes ball striking and still lost more than two on the greens — go neutral with the putter and he is in the mix with Scheffler on Sunday.
That is not a fluke week, either. Look at the run: T14, T14, T3, T5, T7, T7.
He has been one of the best players in the world tee-to-green for two months and has nothing to show for it.
Bellerive is a ball-striker's golf course. In 2018, 14 of the top 15 finishers gained at least half a stroke per round on approach and 10 of them gained a full stroke.
Add in 7,500-square-foot greens carved up by ridges and tiers, where being on the correct shelf matters more than simply hitting the surface, and you are describing exactly what Matsuyama does better than almost anyone.
He hasn't won this year. Given how he is playing, one is coming. At +2700 in a small field on a course that pays for elite iron play, I have no choice but to run it back.
