2018 British Open: Ian Poulter Is a Solid Bet to Finish Top-25

Jul 11, 2018 5:03 PM EDT

For analysis of the top 90 golfers in the British Open field, check out this page. “Best odds value” and “Best matchup value” listed below are determined by a proprietary model built by Colin Davy. It factors in the course, plus a variety of weighted metrics and the betting odds (via Bovada). This isn’t meant to imply every player is worth a bet; we’re simply showing the most efficient way to wager on each golfer should you so choose.


Ian Poulter’s British Open Odds

DFS Pricing: $7,800 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel

British Open History (2013-17): T-3, MC, MC, N/A, T-14

Odds: +6600 to win, +500 top-10 finish, +250 top-20 finish, +200 to miss cut

Best Odds Value: +250 top-20 finish

Best Matchup Value: Poulter (-125) over Phil Mickelson (Sportsbook.ag)

Tee Times: 9:59 a.m. ET (Thursday), 4:58 a.m. ET (Friday)

For more British Open betting and DFS coverage, follow @ActionNetGolf on Twitter and subscribe to The Action Network Golf podcast.


The Outlook

A FedEx Cup points snafu gave Poulter a second life on the PGA Tour, and he has taken huge advantage of his opportunity. He has made 11-of-13 cuts this year, with three top 10s and a win to his credit. He has not finished outside the top 25 in his last four PGA Tour starts and had a respectable 30th-place finish last week at the Scottish Open. His ball-striking stats are much improved this year, but the putter is where Poulter makes himself dangerous. On a course where 6-10 foot par saves will be a common hurdle, Poulter is poised to pick up ground there. I see Poulter’s max upside as a top-10 finish this week with top-25 being a good bet.


The Metrics

Here’s how Poulter ranks in the British Open field in several key metrics. For many more, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

  • Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: T-29th
  • Recent Adjusted Round Score: T-23rd
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 30th
  • Long-Term Greens in Regulation: T-46th
  • Strokes Gained: Approach: 17th
  • Long-Term Putts Per Round: T-32nd

Want more British Open coverage? Check out this page for tips on the 90 best golfers in the field.

Credit:

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ian Poulter

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