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2018 British Open: Jason Day’s Weaknesses Could Be Magnified at Carnoustie

Jul 12, 2018 11:42 AM EDT

For analysis of the top 90 golfers in the British Open field, check out this page. “Best odds value” and “Best matchup value” listed below are determined by a proprietary model built by Colin Davy. It factors in the course, plus a variety of weighted metrics and the betting odds (via Bovada). This isn’t meant to imply every player is worth a bet; we’re simply showing the most efficient way to wager on each golfer should you so choose.


Jason Day’s British Open Odds

DFS Pricing: $8,800 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel

British Open History (2013-17): T-32, T-58, T-4, T-22, T-27

Odds: +3300 to win, +275 top-10 finish, +135 top-20 finish, -400 to make cut, +275 to miss cut

Best Odds Value: +275 to miss cut

Best Matchup Value: Day (-115) over Sergio Garcia (Sportsbook.ag)

Tee Times: 8:37 a.m. ET (Thursday); 3:36 a.m. ET (Friday)

For more British Open betting and DFS coverage, follow @ActionNetGolf on Twitter and subscribe to The Action Network Golf podcast.


The Outlook

Out of all the majors, the British is the one that gives Day the most problems: He has just one top-20 finish in his seven career appearances. Links courses don’t really set up very well for his style: Day excels with his driver and putter; he ranks first in the field in Long-Term Putts Per Round (28.1). However, he struggles with accuracy and hitting greens in regulation. He certainly has the talent to contend, and he’s quite cheap on DraftKings ($8,800) relative to his talent, but outside of a super-hot putter, he’ll struggle to keep up with the top-end links players.


The Metrics

Here’s how Day ranks in the British Open field in several key metrics. For many more, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

  • Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: T-9th
  • Recent Adjusted Round Score: T-49th
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 31st
  • Long-Term Greens in Regulation: 115th
  • Strokes Gained: Approach: 73rd
  • Long-Term Putts Per Round: 1st

Want more British Open coverage? Check out this page for tips on the 90 best golfers in the field.

Credit:

Jun 21, 2018; Cromwell, CT, USA; Jason Day waves to the crowd after his birdie on the fourth hole during the first round of the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Follow Bryan Mears on Twitter
@bryan_mears

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