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2018 British Open: Justin Thomas Could Disappoint at Links-Style Carnoustie

Jul 11, 2018 4:15 PM EDT

For analysis of the top 90 golfers in the British Open field, check out this page. “Best odds value” and “Best matchup value” listed below are determined by a proprietary model built by Colin Davy. It factors in the course, plus a variety of weighted metrics and the betting odds (via Bovada). This isn’t meant to imply every player is worth a bet; we’re simply showing the most efficient way to wager on each golfer should you so choose.


Justin Thomas’ British Open Odds

DFS Pricing: $10,000 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel

British Open History (2013-17): N/A, N/A, N/A, T-53, MC

Odds: +2200 to win, +200 top-10 finish, +110 top-20 finish, -500 to make cut, +335 to miss cut

Best Odds Value: +2200 to win

Best Matchup Value: Thomas (-115) over Jordan Spieth (Sportsbook.ag)

Tee Times: 8:26 a.m ET (Thursday); 3:21 a.m ET (Friday)

For more British Open betting and DFS coverage, follow @ActionNetGolf on Twitter and subscribe to The Action Network Golf podcast.


Justin Thomas British Open Outlook

There aren’t many weaknesses in the game of the world’s No. 2 player, but if there are any, it may be links golf. Thomas is known for his length off the tee and very high ball flight, which is tailor-made for most PGA Tour venues.

However, he hasn’t shown yet that he can tweak his game to suit links golf. Thomas’ best finish in the Open Championship is a tie for 53rd in 2016; he missed the cut last year at Royal Birkdale. Combine that with the fact that he has played just once since the U.S. Open — a 56th at the Travelers — leads me to believe that a lack of tournament play could lead to some rust on his game.

There aren’t many times that I would say this, but I don’t have super high expectations for JT this week.


The Metrics

Here’s how Thomas ranks in the British Open field in several key metrics. For many more, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

  • Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: 5th
  • Recent Adjusted Round Score: T-29th
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 4th
  • Long-Term Greens in Regulation: 89th
  • Strokes Gained: Approach: 5th
  • Long-Term Putts Per Round: T-4th

Want more British Open coverage? Check out this page for tips on the 90 best golfers in the field.

Credit:

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Justin Thomas

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