PGA Championship Round 3 Odds & Picks: Bet Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm on Saturday

PGA Championship Round 3 Odds & Picks: Bet Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm on Saturday article feature image

Pictured: Brooks Koepka. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/PGA of America via Getty Images)

Round 2 proved to be more difficult than Round 1 as the majority of the field struggled to shoot below par. Scottie Scheffler shot 68 (-2) to grab a piece of the 36-hole lead, alongside Corey Conners (68) and Viktor Hovland (67). The trio sits at -5.

Scheffler, and to a slightly lesser extent Viktor Hovland, look like the men to beat at the halfway stage, but there are some dangerous chasers including my pre-tournament pick Brooks Koepka (-2) and Bryson DeChambeau (-3).

Our early bets turned out great. Bryson DeChambeau came through as the first-round leader (+7500) and both of our matchup bets, Patrick Reed (-150) over Thomas Pieters and Brooks Koepka (-120) over Justin Thomas, cashed. Our live outright add of Koepka at +4600 (FanDuel) also seems to have some value as it's now +1000.

Let's build off of that success with some more winners on Saturday.

Matchup Bet: Brooks Koepka (+120) over Scottie Scheffler (DraftKings)

I believe Brooks Koepka is primed to shrink the gap between him and Scottie Scheffler on moving day. By all indications, Koepka is back to being a force in major championships, and there's an opportunity for him to show the golf world that, despite the move to LIV, he is still among the world's best players.

Scheffler is playing great. He is in control of his game and, at times, seems invincible, but I believe Koepka is hitting the ball just as well this week. In Round 2, the four-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (+6.15). Scheffler was well behind (12th), gaining 3.71. Koepka gained 2.33 strokes off the tee, opposed to Scheffler's +1.00. With the difficult conditions and unpredictable rough, I believe Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee will be the most important statistic over the weekend.

For the tournament, Scheffler is gaining 1.25 strokes putting and Koepka is gaining 0.46. I don't believe Scheffler is a better putter than Koepka and expect that water to find its level Saturday.

On Saturday, the best major championship golfer of his era will make his presence known.

Bet: Jon Rahm -155 over Tyrrell Hatton (DraftKings)

Now that Jon Rahm has snuck through the cut line, I believe he'll play a bit more relaxed over the weekend. The Spaniard has lost 1.88 strokes putting through two rounds, which puts him on pace to have his worst putting performance since March 2022. I don't believe that's going to happen.

Rahm has been better than Hatton through two rounds in Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green. His distance advantage on a course this long will give him a leg up on Hatton, who has been both relatively short and inaccurate off the tee this week.

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