The PGA Championship is taking place at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, and the action on the green is mirrored by the action on the screen, as Polymarket traders are betting on who will take home the Wanamaker Trophy.
Since opening, the “2026 PGA Championship Winner” market has amassed a volume of almost $3 million. While defending champion Scottie Scheffler is positioned as the top choice for most traders, the market is reacting live as the tournament unfolds.
PGA Championship Live Odds
What the Odds are Saying
Of the 156 participants, Scottie Scheffler is favored by the traders to repeat his 2025 achievement. He’s followed by Cameron Young, and Jon Rahm and Chris Gotterup are just a few cents away.
It’s no surprise that Scheffler is a popular pick. He dominated last year’s PGA Championship, winning by five strokes at Quail Hollow. If he conquers again, he’ll become the fourth player in the stroke-play era to win back-to-back PGA Championships.
So far, we’re seeing a more balanced spread of picks than in most recent majors. Only Scheffler holds a double-digit probability. Positive market sentiment toward the defending champ reached a 35% peak on May 14, but the general consensus has become more conservative.
With two days remaining, the tournament remains wide open.
How to Monitor the Tournament
Prediction markets react faster to mid-round developments than traditional sports betting. If a favorite bogeys the first hole, his “Yes” shares will take a dip, providing a brief entry point for believers. For instance, strong contenders like Min Woo Lee and Xander Schauffele are trading at low prices compared to their statistical win probabilities. Keep in mind that the platform allows you to trade your position as the tournament progresses.
As the tournament continues, market probabilities and potential payouts are subject to constant shifting.
How will this market settle?
The market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship. If the player you choose misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified, or is otherwise eliminated from contention, the market will resolve to “No”.
In the event of a tie, Polymarket rules indicate that the market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship tournament regulations. In the case of multiple winners, the market will resolve alphabetically in favor of the first listed player.
The primary sources will be the results published on the official PGA Championship website, plus selected credible sports reporting.
