The 2026 WM Phoenix Open tees off with its first round on Thursday morning from TPC Scottsdale in Arizona.
This week's event features a number of top players, but the overwhelming favorite is Scottie Scheffler, who checks in at +210 odds to win.
Last week's tournament, the Farmers Insurance Open, was won by Justin Rose, who is not in the field this week.
Other favorites this week include Xander Schauffele, Cameron Young, Hideki Matsuyama, and more.
From favorites to long-shots, props, and more, these are our staff's 2026 Farmers Insurance Open best bets and favorite golf picks.
PGA Tour Expert Picks: WM Phoenix Open
Pierceson Coody First Round Leader (+6000)
By Tony Sartori
Scheffler’s strong starts have carried into this season, as he finished runner-up to the first-round leader in his opening appearance of the year at The American Express. The golfer who finished tied for first that round, holding a one-shot lead over Scheffler, was Pierceson Coody.
Like Scheffler, Coody has excelled off the tee, ranking in the 96th percentile in that category. He has also been sharp with his irons, particularly on approach shots from 150-175 yards.
Coody ranks 36th this season in birdie-or-better percentage from that distance.
That metric is especially relevant at TPC Scottsdale, where 21.9% of approach shots last year came from the 150-175-yard range. That figure was more than 3% higher than any other 25-yard grouping.
Johnny Keefer (-117) over Stephan Jaeger
I talked about Johnny Keefer over Andrew Novak a few weeks ago at the American Express and will continue to ride the hot hand here on Keefer until the market corrects its view of him.
Keefer dominated the Korn Ferry Tour in 2025, becoming the third player in history to sweep both the Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year honors. He also set the Korn Ferry Tour single-season scoring average record with 67.95 and led the tour in top-five finishes, top-10s, and top-25s
As you might know from my stance in the past, backing someone is only part of the game when we also need a fade candidate to target, and I like the idea of opposing Jaeger here in Phoenix after his high-end finish at the Farmers Insurance Open.
While golfers have more room to miss off the tee at TPC Scottsdale, an area that could help Jaeger, the extremely wide miss has remained a problem for him and could derail a profile that lacks any approach pedigree at this course.
A pure upside answer would favor Jaeger because of that boom-or-bust output we consistently get in his game, but matchups are about finding made cuts, and I hope that we can get this bet to the window before Saturday. If we don't, I do worry a little that Jaeger's potential could shine through, although the volatility is still bound to strike at any moment.
Perhaps that can still be good enough for Keefer if he makes the weekend. That said, the best pure path to victory is to get Jaeger out of the mix before the weekend.
Ben Griffin Outright Winner (+3300)
According to my model, Ben Griffin is the second-best golfer in the field this week.
There's a massive gap between Scheffler and the rest of the field, but Griffin has been playing some tremendous golf over the last 12 months. During that stretch, he's picked up three wins and a ton of top-10 finishes. He's added distance off the tee, which has turned him into a complete golfer.
He's elite on approach, around the green, and on the green, so I don't see his form slipping anytime soon. He's made both of his cuts at this event in his career, and he's a much better golfer now than he was in those years. This is an extremely fair price.
