The 2026 PGA Tour season continues with the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale in Arizona.
While many of the top golfers in the world vie for winning "The Greatest Show on Grass," there are more ways to bet the tournament than just who will emerge victorious on Sunday. For more instant gratification, we turn to the First Round Leader market to find value on who will sit atop the leaderboard when play comes to an end on Thursday.
Here are my favorite WM Phoenix Open first round leader picks and bets for Thursday.
WM Phoenix Open: First Round Leader Picks, Bets
Scottie Scheffler (+1000 at FanDuel)
Scottie Scheffler is listed at +225 to win the tournament outright and +1000 to lead after the first round. While first-round leader odds are typically longer due to the increased variance of an 18-hole round compared with a 72-hole event, the gap between these two prices should not be this large.
First, Scheffler is an elite starter. Last season, he finished first on the PGA TOUR in first-round scoring average.
Scheffler is also capable of going wire-to-wire this week, given the significant talent gap between him and the rest of the field across nearly every measurable category. He has been especially strong off the tee, ranking in the 99th percentile among all golfers.
Performance off the tee is critical at TPC Scottsdale. Last year, each of the top three finishers ranked 17th or better among the field in strokes gained: off the tee.
No other strokes-gained category showed a similar trend.
Pierceson Coody (+6000 at theScore Bet)
Scheffler’s strong starts have carried into this season, as he finished runner-up to the first-round leader in his opening appearance of the year at The American Express. The golfer who finished tied for first that round, holding a one-shot lead over Scheffler, was Pierceson Coody.
Like Scheffler, Coody has excelled off the tee, ranking in the 96th percentile in that category. He has also been sharp with his irons, particularly on approach shots from 150-175 yards.
Coody ranks 36th this season in birdie-or-better percentage from that distance.
That metric is especially relevant at TPC Scottsdale, where 21.9% of approach shots last year came from the 150-175-yard range. That figure was more than 3% higher than any other 25-yard grouping.
