2018 British Open: Is Rory McIlroy a Good Contrarian DFS Play?

Jul 12, 2018 11:45 AM EDT

For analysis of the top 90 golfers in the British Open field, check out this page. “Best odds value” and “Best matchup value” listed below are determined by a proprietary model built by Colin Davy. It factors in the course, plus a variety of weighted metrics and the betting odds (via Bovada). This isn’t meant to imply every player is worth a bet; we’re simply showing the most efficient way to wager on each golfer should you so choose.


Rory McIlroy’s British Open Odds

DFS Pricing: $11,000 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel

British Open History (2013-17): MC, WIN, N/A, T-5, T-4

Odds: +1800 to win, +135 top-10 finish, -140 top-20 finish, -600 to make cut, +350 to miss cut

Best Odds Value: -140 top-20 finish

Best Matchup Value: McIlroy (-150) over Tommy Fleetwood (Sportsbook.ag)

Tee Times: 7:53 a.m. ET (Thursday), 2:52 a.m. ET (Friday)

For more British Open betting and DFS coverage, follow @ActionNetGolf on Twitter and subscribe to The Action Network Golf podcast.


The Outlook

McIlroy is a tough player to handicap. At this point in his career — he’s won four major championships — it seems as if he’s unmotivated by anything other than competing at the biggest stage. He’s in poor form, but he was also in poor form entering this year’s Masters, and he led most of the tournament before eventually falling to champion Patrick Reed. Rory has a British title from 2014, and his peak golf is as good as anyone’s. He’s very boom-or-bust, as usual, but he could be lower-owned than expected in DFS given all of those factors.


The Metrics

Here’s how McIlroy ranks in the British Open field in several key metrics. For many more, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

  • Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: T-14th
  • Recent Adjusted Round Score: T-45th
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 10th
  • Long-Term Greens in Regulation: T-58th
  • Strokes Gained: Approach: 28th
  • Long-Term Putts Per Round: T-51st

Want more British Open coverage? Check out this page for tips on the 90 best golfers in the field.

Credit:

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Rory McIlroy

Follow Bryan Mears on Twitter
@bryan_mears

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