The Masters has come and gone, but there are still three exciting golf majors ahead! Rory McIlroy dazzled at Augusta, becoming just the fourth golfer in history to secure his second consecutive green jacket.
Will McIlroy's dominance lead to a top-10 finish at the PGA Championship (May), The U.S. Open (June), and The Open Championship (July)? Will any of the other nine golfers among the top-10 finishers at The Masters do the same?
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Top 10 Finisher in All 4 Golf Majors: Live Kalshi Odds
One of the most interesting parts about this market is the ability to buy contracts on "any golfer" for a reasonable price. As you can see from the chart above, Kalshi traders tend to agree with this sentiment, with Scottie Scheffler not far behind.
With trading volume at ~$160,000 since this market first opened on February 21st, it's certainly not a "thin" market, but incoming volatility is expected following the completion of each major.
So, which golfers have a legitimate chance to be a top-10 finisher in all four 2026 majors?
Top-10 Finisher in All 4 Majors: Prediction Market Analysis
Finishing in the top-10 may not be as prestigious as winning, but being a top-10 finisher in all four majors in a calendar year is no easy accomplishment. In fact, it's only been done 16 times in history (by 11 different golfers), with Jordan Spieth in 2015 being the most recent.
Still, the possibility remains, and it's a decent Kalshi market to trade from a value perspective. Despite his dramatic green jacket win in April, Rory McIlroy isn't nearly as popular with traders as Scottie Scheffler. Scheffler lost The Masters to McIlroy by a single stroke, and many consider him the most consistent golfer in the world right now.
Scheffler's chances are also punctuated by typically strong performances at the remaining courses. Next up is the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, which Scheffler won in 2025. That's followed by the U.S. Open at Oakmont, which is generally a difficult course, but one that's conducive to his skill set.
Then there's The Open Championship at Royal Birkdale, which also serves Scheffler's game. Overall, his consistency is key at any course, evidenced by seven top-10 finishes in his past 10 major tournaments. Additionally, he's finished in the top-10 in ~70% of the tournaments he's entered over the past two seasons.
Despite the dramatic drop-off between outcome odds, McIlroy is very much in the running himself. He hasn't won a PGA Championship since 2014, but the form he's shown on parkland courses this spring is plenty of reason for top-10 optimism. The U.S. Open may be his worst chance, but his driving distance and accuracy give him an edge.
As for The Open Championship, McIlroy typically thrives at courses that favor links golf. He won the Claret Jug in 2014 and typically finishes highly at courses in Britain.
In terms of outcomes, there's a lot to like about buying "Yes" contracts for either "any golfer" (~44 cents), Scheffler (~34 cents), or McIlroy (~15 cents). Conversely, buying a "No" contract for "any golfer" (~58 cents) or Scheffler (~71 cents) is less lucrative, but decently valued proportionate to the odds.
When Will This Kalshi Market Conclude?
Here are the market rules according to Kalshi:
- A golf major refers to one of the four annual major championship tournaments officially designated by the sport’s governing bodies: The Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open, and The Open Championship.
- If any golfer finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the "any golfer" market resolves to "Yes". The same goes for any specific golfer like McIlroy or Scheffler. Sources from Fox Sports, ESPN, The Wall Street Journal, and the Governing League.
