2022 Kentucky Derby Prep Race Betting Odds & Picks: Bob Baffert Contender Newgrange Favored in Southwest Stakes

2022 Kentucky Derby Prep Race Betting Odds & Picks: Bob Baffert Contender Newgrange Favored in Southwest Stakes article feature image

Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Horses compete in the 2021 Kentucky Derby.

  • Life on the Kentucky Derby trail continues Saturday with the $750,000 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
  • Trainer Bob Baffert has race favorite Newgrange entered in the large field for the Grade III event.
  • Handicapper Jeremy Pond breaks down the schedule and gives his best bets, as well his top plays on the busy undercard ahead of the races.

Our journey on the road to the Kentucky Derby continues Saturday, with another big prep race taking place at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark.,  via the $750,000 Grade III Southwest Stakes.

We had a huge upset in last week's Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds, with longshot Call Me Midnight rallying from off the pace to pick up the victory and 10 Derby qualifying points.

Handicapper Jeremy Pond takes a look at the Southwest field, featuring 12 contenders, and delivers his best bets, as well as on some exotic wagers — including Late Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets — to close out the loaded card.

2022 Southwest Stakes (Grade III) Odds

*Latest Odds via TVG

1 — Ben Diesel10-1Jon Court
2 — Dash Attack7-2David Cohen
3 — Don'tcrossthedevil30-1Ramon Vazquez
4 — Kavod12-1Francisco Arrieta
5 — Costa Terra12-1Tiago Pereira
6 — Osbourne8-1David Cabrera
7 — Ignitis8-1Luis Contreras
8 — Barber Road5-1Ricardo Santana, Jr.
9 — Classic Moment12-1Martin Garcia
10 — Newgrange2-1John Velazquez
11 — Call Me Jamal30-1Geovanni Franco
12 — Vivar12-1Florent Geroux

Race Information

Date | Post Time: Saturday | 5:22 p.m. ET

Distance | Surface: 1 1/16 miles | Dirt

Location: Oaklawn Park, Hot Springs, Ark.

Southwest Top Picks & Longshots

No. 10 Newgrange (2-1): The deserved favorite. Trainer Bob Baffert sends out the son of Violence and Bella Chianti (by Empire Maker), who's looking for his third win in as many career starts.

Newgrange was impressive taking the Sham Stakes (G3) on New Year's Day at Santa Anita Park, but the horse remains ineligible to pick up any points due to Baffert's horses being banned from running in the Derby after his suspension. Regardless, he's still the horse to beat with John Velazquez in the saddle.

No. 8 Barber Road (5-1): Finished a valiant second in the Smarty Jones after getting a brutal trip. Trainer John Ortiz has his charge training well ahead of this race, plus he gets the added bonus of pilot Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard.

Live contender at solid odds.

Longshot — No. 6 Osbourne (8-1): The Springboard Mile runner-up at Remington Park seems primed for a big effort, which will be the fourth career start. Osbourne, who gets David Cabrera aboard, won his first race in style in a Maiden Special Weight event in November at Churchill Downs.

We had a downright brutal pace meltdown in the Lecomte and it wouldn't surprise me if Osbourne was the one picking up the pieces if something similar happens here. A must-use longshot in all exotic wagering.

Pond's Best Bets:

$10 Win | Place | Show: No. 10 Newgrange (2-1)

$4 Exacta: 8-10 over 1-2-6-7-8-9-10

$1.50 Trifecta: 8-10 over 1-2-6-8-10 over 1-2-4-5-6-7-8-9-10

Exotic Wagering

Late Pick 4 (Races 8 | 9 | 10 | 11) 

Wager: $0.50


Race 8: 1-7-8-9

Race 9: 2-6-8-10

Race 10: 1-4-6-7

Race 11: 3-4-7-8-13

Note: The No. 13 entry in Race 11 is on the Also-Eligible list, which means he will likely compete if another horse is scratched.

Late Pick 5 (Races 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11)

Wager: $0.50


Race 7: 2-5-7-8-10

Race 8: 1-7-8-9

Race 9: 2-6-8-10

Race 10: 1-4-6-7

Race 11: 3-4-7-8-13

Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby

Jan. 22Lecomte (Grade III)Call Me Midnight
Jan. 29Southwest (III)Oaklawn Park (10-4-2-1)
Feb. 5Holy Bull (III)Gulfstream Park (10-4-2-1)
Feb. 5Robert B. Lewis (III)Santa Anita Park (10-4-2-1)
Feb. 5Sam F. Davis (III)Tampa Bay Downs (10-4-2-1)
Feb. 12Withers (III)Aqueduct (10-4-2-1)
Feb. 19El Camino Real DerbyGolden Gate Fields (10-4-2-1)
Feb. 19Risen Star (III)Fair Grounds (50-20-10-5)
Feb. 26Rebel (II)Oaklawn Park (50-20-10-5)
March 5John Battaglia MemorialTurfway Park (10-4-2-1)
March 5Fountain of Youth (II)Gulfstream Park (50-20-10-5)
March 5San Felipe (II)Santa Anita Park (50-20-10-5)
March 12Gotham (II)Aqueduct (50-20-10-5)
March 12Tampa Bay Derby (II)Tampa Bay Downs (50-20-10-5)
March 26UAE DerbyMeydan Racecourse (100-40-20-10)
March 26Louisiana Derby (II)Louisiana Downs (100-40-20-10)
March 27Sunland Derby (III)Sunland Park (50-20-10-5)
April 2Florida Derby (I)Gulfstream Park (100-40-20-10)
April 2Arkansas Derby (I)Oaklawn Park (100-40-20-10)
April 2Jeff Ruby Steaks (III)Turfway Park (100-40-20-10)
April 9Wood Memorial (II)Aqueduct (100-40-20-10)
April 9Blue Grass (II)Keeneland (100-40-20-10)
April 9Santa Anita Derby (I)Santa Anita Park (100-40-20-10)
April 16Lexington (III)Keeneland (100-40-20-10)

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