Is Justify the Sharp Play in the Preakness Stakes?


Preakness Stakes. Credit: Patrick McDermott-USA TODAY Sports

May 19, 2018, 07:00 AM EDT

The 143rd Preakness Stakes takes place on Saturday (6:20 p.m. ET.) at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland.  Kentucky Derby winner Justify is the betting favorite with 4-9 odds.


Before the “Run for the Roses” we explained that betting the Derby was as easy as going chalk. In the last 50 years, 17 favorites (counting co-favorites) won America’s greatest race. With Justify’s victory, the favorite has won more than half the races since 2000, including six straight.

A $2 wager, the minimum bet amount required, on the favorite in the 19 Derby races since 2000 (a $38 total investment) has returned $85.60 for a 125% return on investment (ROI). In the “Fastest Two Minutes in Sports” going chalk has been profitable. Is betting the favorite the sharp play in the Preakness Stakes as well?

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