Nationals vs. Phillies Odds & Betting Predictions - August 6, 2026

I could end up looking either very smart with this wager or very dumb. Let me explain. Christopher Sanchez is an elite pitcher and has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for two straight seasons. However, this is more of a fade on his style of pitching and the defense behind him. When the Phillies traded for Luis Arraez, their offense became stronger, but their defensive rotation became a mess. Alec Bohm moved to first base, Luis Arraez is now at second base, Bryson Stott moved to the hot corner, and Bryce Harper moved to right field. It is inevitably gonna take time for this defense to acclimate to their new positions, and I don’t think it will happen for at least a week or two. This defense was a mess before the movement, so I can’t imagine how it will look now. To make matters worse, Christopher Sanchez is known for being a ground ball pitcher and needing his defense to make plays. Sanchez ranks in the 99th percentile in ground ball rate, so this newly positioned Phillies infield will be seeing a lot of grounders. Sure, Sanchez could deal and this defense could be fine, but it’s important to note. While Washington is down a few key bats, this lineup is still second in wRC+ against left handed pitching. On the flip side, Miles Mikolas is a pitching machine. The 37 year old owns a 5.67 ERA with a 5.38 xERA and 5.84 FIP. It’s almost criminal they keep sending him out there. His 90 Stuff+ isn’t gonna cut it, and the Phillies bats know him very well. In 210 plate appearances, this lineup is hitting .266 with a .310 xBA and .548 xSLG against Mikolas. Once Mikolas exits, we will see an all time bad Nationals bullpen come in. The hitting conditions in Philadelphia are also optimal for hitting. It will be 89 degrees with 8 MPH winds out to center field. Our model projects 10.4 runs. Give me OVER 9.

(B365) Thursday's Leadoff (good to 9 -110)

C. Sanchez