We've got a full, all-day slate on tap for Thursday, starting with Angels vs Orioles at 12:35 PM ET (Camden Yards) and closing with White Sox vs Red Sox at 7:10 PM ET (Fenway Park).
Read on for our 5 MLB Best Bets Today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:35 PM | |
  | 2:10 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 6:05 PM | |
  | 7:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Paul's Angels vs Orioles Best Bet
By Sean Paul
The Angels will give Ryan Johnson another chance in the rotation after sending Jose Soriano to the Blue Jays. Perhaps an extended look in the rotation will help Johnson.
Johnson is pitching to a 7.63 ERA with a 5.33 xERA and 6.31 FIP. His other data points, such as his 7.24 K/9, 3.91 BB/9, and a 2.35 HR/9, are very poor.
I view the home run woes as the most concerning. If a pitcher gives up a solo shot here and there, that's passable. But to give up over two homers per nine with a walk rate nearing four is a recipe for disaster.
He also hasn't given the Angels much length, throwing more than five innings just once this season. It's not as if the Angels are pulling him to avoid him facing the order a third time; he just racks up so many pitches due to his lack of command.
That's an even bigger issue with the Angels' dreadful bullpen needing to soak up 15 outs. Not only did Los Angeles deal most of its bullpen, the one big righty arm it kept, Sam Bachman, is now on the IL. The bullpen has just three pitchers who have spent real time in the bigs this year: Lefties Samy Natera and Mitch Farris and righty Jose Fermin.
Offensively, the Angels have the second-worst wRC+ (78) in the league since July 1st. A few major issues stand out right away. For one, they have 17 homers in that span, the lowest by at least five homers. They also have a horrid plate approach, leading to a 26% strikeout rate and a 7.4% walk rate.
It's impossible to be a good offense by being the worst power-hitting team in the league while also swinging and missing the most.
In a year with very few surprises in Baltimore, the development of Brandon Young is one of the best. The 27-year-old looks like a mainstay in this Orioles rotation, boasting a 3.31 ERA with a decent 4.31 xERA and 3.91 FIP.
I'm not as bullish on Young as his ERA is. I fall more in line with the expected numbers because nothing about his game really stands out. His velocity is middle of the road, averaging 94 mph on his four-seamer with just a 7.40 K/9.
Young does a lot of his damage by inducing weak fly balls. He's a fly-ball-heavy pitcher, with 38% of his outs coming in the air, but his HR/9 is just 0.96. The good news for Young is the Angels have no power and don't hit homers. That fits right into his style.
Now, let's take a look at the Orioles offense, which lost a few cogs at the deadline in Taylor Ward and Adley Rutschman. I think Baltimore has enough offensive weaponry to make Johnson pay for his walk and homer issues. They lead the league with an 11% walk rate since July 1st, which really stands out since Baltimore is just 16th in wRC+.
It would help if Gunner Henderson could start living up to the back of his baseball card, as his .687 OPS this year isn't getting the job done. Pete Alonso has picked up the slack with his home-run hitting prowess. Lately, Tyler O'Neill has enjoyed one of his torrid stretches he goes on yearly, cracking six homers in his past 20 games.
I'll take plus money with the Orioles run line here. The current iteration of the Angels is easily the worst team in the league. They have a terrible offense with two MLB-caliber bats (Mike Trout and Zach Neto), and Neto is very streaky. Not to mention, Johnson has an ERA over 7.00 with few signs of positive regression, and their bullpen is also one of the worst in MLB. I expect a convincing win from the home team on this getaway day.
Pick: Orioles -1.5 (+100 or Better)
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Tanner McGrath's Pirates vs Brewers Best Bet
The three previous games of this series were under the line with totals of 7, 6, and 6 runs scored.
Add weather conditions to that strong trend. Our Bet Labs "Wind Blowing In" system recommends backing yet another under this afternoon.
Braxton Ashcraft takes the hill for the Pirates. He's having a solid season and is coming off a great outing against the Reds, allowing just two hits and one run in five complete innings.
His rival will be Dustin May, recently acquired from the Cardinals to help the Brewers in their upcoming playoff run.
May's last two starts were great, giving up only one run and eight hits in 11 complete innings.
The Pirates offense ranks next-to-last in the past seven days in wRC+ (61), while the Brewers are 17th (88).
When wind blows in at 5–35 mph, fly balls lose carry and home run rates drop significantly.
This system targets unders in these conditions with totals between 6–11, which is the case for today's Pirates-Brewers matchup.
This is a sharp weather-based angle that exploits environmental factors that are often underweighted in line-setting but heavily affect scoring outcomes.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-120 or Better)
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Matt Trollo's Tigers vs Mariners Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
In his last four starts, Framber Valdez has twice completed seven innings with two runs or less. He’s totaled 15 strikeouts and two walks in those starts and one of them was his last time out in Sacramento.
However, in between those two starts, he allowed nine runs (eight earned) over just 5.2 innings with as many walks (five) as strikeouts. Prior to those four starts he allowed five and four runs.
Valdez has been one of many underperforming Tigers on the year with all non-pitching estimators below his 4.41 ERA, but still above four, along with a career worst 4.48 Bot ERA, the third season in a row that PB hasn’t graded any pitch other than his curveball above average.
Aside from the park upgrade that T-Mobile offers every visiting pitcher, Valdez also gets the benefit of facing a poor offensive unit against LHP and one I don’t think Taylor Ward is going to solve that particular problem on his own.
Even with him in the projected lineup, they still average just a 93 wRC+ against southpaws and will probably be starting several LHBs against Valdez, which is interesting because same-handed batters have a .301 wOBA, but just a .260 xwOBA against Valdez this year, likely the source of most of the gap between his ERA and estimators with RHBs 10 points above their actual results against him.
Despite their poor team defensive numbers (-17 Runs Prevented), the Tigers have jettisoned the worst of their defenders, aside from Spencer Torkelson (-9 FRV), with the projected defense at 6 FRV, led by Dillon Dingler’s 10 (he really should get some MVP votes).
Both bullpens average the same 3.87 on their FIP, xFIP and SIERA over the last 30 days and despite neither doing much to those units at the deadline (I don’t know if you can count Seranthony Dominguez as much of an upgrade for the Mariners), BARTOLO ranks Seattle the 4th best unit in the game, well above Detroit’s 23rd ranked unit with more than half a run gap between their weighted FIPs.
Continuing to go backwards here, the Seattle defense has also been one of the worst units in the league this year (-27 Runs Prevented), but haven’t been able to remove their worst offenders, at least against LHP, with Thursday’s projected lineup having accumulated -17 FRV (assuming Mitch Garver -5 FRV catches the day game after a night game with Cal Raleigh at DH).
Also, aside from Max Clark’s hot start (216 wRC+ vs. RHP), the top four in Detroit’s recent standard lineup against righties all have at least a 145 wRC+ this season with none of the projected nine below 86. This lineup even averages a 142 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Lastly, Bryce Miller has a 2.80 ERA and while many of his faults can be masked by the park, for the most part that hasn’t been the case… until recently.
Through his first eight starts (plus one piggyback outing), he posted a 30.5 K-BB% with a 96.4 mph fastball, allowing just a 27.5 HardHit%.
However, over his last four outings, those numbers have become a 4.1 K-BB%, 95.3 mph fastball and 38.2 HardHit%. Now I'm questioning if he's still healthy.
Valdez's recent volatility seems better than Miller's downward spiral, while the Detroit offense is far better against RHP than Seattle is against LHP. Add in a defensive edge and a small base running edge (4 BRR) for the road team and even with the bullpens a potential source of debate, I still make the Tigers favorites here.
Pick: Tigers ML (-110 or Better)
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Doug Ziefel's Nationals vs Phillies Best Bet
By Doug Ziefel
Miles Mikolas' profile presents as clear a side as strikeout props get. The Nationals starter is 3-8 with a 5.67 ERA and, most tellingly, has not recorded more than four strikeouts in any of his 22 appearances this season — a streak that covers both his time as a traditional starter and stretches working as a bulk reliever behind an opener.
His underlying numbers are rough, as he's allowing a .348 xwOBA against, a 42.1% hard-hit rate, and a 9% barrel rate, all indicators of a pitcher who's getting put in play hard and often rather than missing bats.
He works with a deep six-pitch mix — four-seamer, sinker, slider, curveball, changeup, and sweeper — that's built around locating and mixing speeds rather than overpowering hitters, and his average strikeout rate this season works out to roughly five per nine innings, well below the modern league norm.
Washington has even leaned into that reality by using him as a bulk reliever at multiple points this year, specifically because his traditional starts weren't missing enough bats.
The matchup adds a layer worth considering both ways.
Philadelphia's lineup does strike out a fair amount as a unit; the Phillies rank 7th in the majors in total strikeouts this season, so there's some strikeout equity built into facing this lineup on a given night.
However, the club used the trade deadline to specifically address that issue, adding Luis Arraez, one of the lowest-strikeout hitters in the sport (he owns three of the five lowest qualified strikeout rates since 2000), who profiles to hit near the top of Philadelphia's order.
With Arraez now likely setting the table ahead of Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Kyle Schwarber, at least one or two plate appearances tonight will come against a hitter who almost never strikes out, which trims some of the swing-and-miss equity a lineup like this would otherwise carry into the game on top of a pitcher who wasn't generating many strikeouts against anyone to begin with.
Put together, this is a pitcher who's been remarkably consistent at staying under this number all year, facing a lineup that adds at least a modest contact-oriented check at the top of the order.
This angle also happens to be one of our top PRO prop projections of the slate.
Pick: Miles Mikolas Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160 or Better)
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Sean Zerillo's White Sox vs Red Sox Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
I project some value on the Under in this game.
If you'd like to dive deeper into this matchup, I reccomend checking out BARTOLO, my new PRO baseball betting tool that gives PRO subscribers live access to all the data I use to project MLB games each day.
Here's a sneak peek of what BARTOLO looks like for this matchup — specifically, check out that both bullpens are relatively well-rested entering Thursday:
Pick: Under 9 (-122 or Better)
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