Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Thursday, August 6.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- A's +125 F5, 0.5u | Bet to +115
- Cubs +108, 1u | Bet to -130
- Tigers +110, 1u | Bet to -110
- Nationals/Phillies Over 8.5 (-120), 0.6u | Bet to 9 (-110)
- Red Sox -175, 0.88u | Bet to -190
- Marlins +140, 0.5u | Bet to +130
- Royals -115, 0.58u | Bet to -120
A's @ Reds Picks
After 24.2 innings in relief, Mason Barnett made his first start of the season against the Red Sox in Sacramento last week and all things considered, it went pretty well (5 IP – 4 H – 3 R – 0 HR – 1 BB – 6 K).
Barnett was up 0.6 mph with an additional inch of iVB (16) on his heater, generating a 15.1 SwStr% with 53.8% of his contact on the ground and not only did he not allow a barrel, he only allowed two hard hit batted balls.
Perhaps it there was some extra adrenaline for his first start, but that'll play if he can keep it up.
Barnett’s 4.85 ERA matches his FIP because five of his six barrels have left the yard, all at home and four to the Marlins in back to back outings.
Unfortunately, he transitions to a rare similar power environment in Cincinnati, but will likely be facing a below average offense (projected lineup averages a 92 wRC+ and .162 ISO against RHP this year) with few LHBs (just three), which matters because Barnett has a near 60 point split with RHBs owning just a .285 wOBA against him.
Opposing him will be Andrew Abbott, in for the ailing Hunter Greene (ugh). His 3.91 ERA is more than three-quarters of a run below all estimators. Even a solid contact profile (7.3% Barrels/BBE, 38 HardHit%) produces a 4.70 xERA with just a 6.8 K-BB%.
Has Abbott beaten his estimators before? Yes
By this much? No
Interestingly, his 77.3 LOB% is a career low too.
The A’s lineup is depleted without Kurtz, Langeliers and Rooker. Jonah Heim, who hasn’t been able to keep a spot on a major league roster the last two seasons is batting cleanup. Still, a 101 average wRC+ from this projected lineup against LHP exceeds their opponent’s. Overall, I have the offenses a wash.
If you go by team defenses, the Reds are 30 Runs Prevented better than the A’s, but again, by projected defenses, it’s a 5 FRV (Fielding Run Value) advantage for the road team.
I can’t find any aspect of this game where the Reds have a certain edge, at least through the first five, allowing me to avoid the A’s league worst bullpen over the last month.
Picks: A's +125 F5, 0.5u | Bet to +115
Blue Jays @ Cubs Picks
Dylan Cease was pushed back a day to start this makeup game at Wrigley. He has six straight quality starts with at least seven strikeouts in all of them and seven or more innings in three.
While a 4.01 Bot ERA (his worst grade In three years) may have some explaining to do, Cease compliments it with a 106 Pitching+ and doesn’t otherwise have another estimator reaching three.
His BABIP is down 31 points from last season and his strand rate up 8.7 percentage points and like a miracle, his ERA has dropped over two runs from last year. The career high 36.2 K% doesn’t hurt either.
However, he’ll be facing a very dangerous Chicago lineup averaging a 111 wRC+ against RHP this season and 120 wRC+ over the last 30 days and he’ll do so under hitter friendly conditions at Wrigley.
While most weather sources are calling for a boost between 15% and 20%, none are calling for strong winds while the direction of that wind is also a source of conflict.
Cease will also be dealing with a lesser Toronto defense behind him than he has come to expect in a Blue Jays uniform. Not only is Daulton Varsho gone, but the projected lineup against LHP is a below average defense at -5 FRV.
While one of their four worst defenders will probably DH, it still leaves at least three players with -3 FRV or worse on the field, likely Okamoto, Clement and either Davis Schneider or Jesus Sanchez.
Despite the trade of Jeff Hoffman, both 30 day estimators (average of FIP, xFIP and SIERA) and BARTOLO’s full season numbers have the Toronto bullpen right around four, ranked smack in the middle of the league.
Opposing Cease will be David Peterson, who’s allowed just five runs (four earned) in 23.2 innings in four starts since his disastrous 10 run outing in his second start for the Cubs.
He’s done this with 51.5% of his contact on the ground and as expected, the elite defense behind him has gobbling up just about everything, even if his .156 BABIP during this stretch is completely unsustainable.
Thursday’s projected Chicago lineup, their standard against RHP lately, sits at 59 FRV.
Peterson will also be facing a projected Toronto lineup averaging a 75 wRC+ on the road and 81 vs LHP this year.
The Cubs did add to their bullpen at the deadline, but their BARTOLO ranking (21) is still well below their last 30 day estimators (12th). Their wFIP is also a bit more than one-third of a run above the average of their FIP (3.91), xFIP (4.12) and SIERA (3.83) over the last month.
Cease is the clear superior starter in this matchup. I have him a bit more than a run and a third ahead of Peterson, but just about everything else is coming up Cubs including a projected 8 BRR (Base Running Runs) edge. Both offensively and defensively, it's not even close.
The Cubs are around 30 points of wRC+ better and project for an overwhelming 64 FRV edge (probably closer to 60 with the DH, but still…).
I have the bullpens around even and make the Cubs the favorite in this game. There’s certainly the chance that Dylan Cease can punch out 10+ Cubs and shut them out over seven innings, but if the Blue Jays are going to win this game, it’ll likely be on his back without much help.
Picks: Cubs +108, 1u | Bet to -130
Tigers @ Mariners Picks
In his last four starts, Framber Valdez has twice completed seven innings with two runs or less. He’s totaled 15 strikeouts and two walks in those starts and one of them was his last time out in Sacramento.
However, in between those two starts, he allowed nine runs (eight earned) over just 5.2 innings with as many walks (five) as strikeouts. Prior to those four starts he allowed five and four runs.
Valdez has been one of many underperforming Tigers on the year with all non-pitching estimators below his 4.41 ERA, but still above four, along with a career worst 4.48 Bot ERA, the third season in a row that PB hasn’t graded any pitch other than his curveball above average.
Aside from the park upgrade that T-Mobile offers every visiting pitcher, Valdez also gets the benefit of facing a poor offensive unit against LHP and one I don’t think Taylor Ward is going to solve that particular problem on his own.
Even with him in the projected lineup, they still average just a 93 wRC+ against southpaws and will probably be starting several LHBs against Valdez, which is interesting because same-handed batters have a .301 wOBA, but just a .260 xwOBA against Valdez this year, likely the source of most of the gap between his ERA and estimators with RHBs 10 points above their actual results against him.
Despite their poor team defensive numbers (-17 Runs Prevented), the Tigers have jettisoned the worst of their defenders, aside from Torkelson (-9 FRV), with the projected defense at 6 FRV, led by Dillon Dingler’s 10 (he really should get some MVP votes).
Both bullpens average the same 3.87 on their FIP, xFIP and SIERA over the last 30 days and despite neither doing much to those units at the deadline (I don’t know if you can count Seranthony Dominguez as much of an upgrade for the Mariners), BARTOLO ranks Seattle the 4th best unit in the game, well above Detroit’s 23rd ranked unit with more than half a run gap between their weighted FIPs.
Continuing to go backwards here, the Seattle defense has also been one of the worst units in the league this year (-27 Runs Prevented), but haven’t been able to remove their worst offenders, at least against LHP, with Thursday’s projected lineup having accumulated -17 FRV (assuming Garver -5 FRV catches the day game after a night game with Raleigh at DH).
Also, aside from Max Clark’s hot start (216 wRC+ vs RHP), the top four in Detroit’s recent standard lineup against RHP all have at least a 145 wRC+ against RHP this season with none of the projected nine below 86. This lineup even averages a 142 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Lastly, Bryce Miller has a 2.80 ERA and while many of his faults can be masked by the park, for the most part that hasn’t been the case…until recently.
Through his first eight starts (plus one piggyback outing), he posted a 30.5 K-BB% with a 96.4 mph fastball, allowing just a 27.5 HardHit%.
However, over his last four outings, those numbers have become a 4.1 K-BB%, 95.3 mph fastball and 38.2 HardHit%. Now I'm questioning if he's still healthy.
Valdez's recent volatility seems better than Miller's downward spiral, while the Detroit offense is far better against RHP than Seattle is against LHP. Add in a defensive edge and a small base running edge (4 BRR) for the road team and even with the bullpens a potential source of debate, I still make the Tigers favorites here.
Picks: Tigers +110, 1u | Bet to -110
Nationals @ Phillies Picks
With temperatures in the upper 80s and a light to moderate wind blowing out towards right-center, we always have to be careful with early weather forecasts, but that’s a potential 5% boost to a run environment that’s already 4% above average with scheduled umpire (+1.5%) getting them past a 10% overall.
Miles Mikolas doesn’t need that boost, as he’s already holding a 4.77 SIERA and 5.37 xERA with an 11.9 K% and 9.4% Barrels/BBE. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .345 and .359 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
With the addition of Luis Arraez, the Philadelphia lineup now boasts four players with a 119 wRC+ or better against RHP with Trea Turner also up to 102 now, due to his team leading overall 154 wRC+ for the last 30 days.
The rest of the lineup is still pretty awful with nobody else reaching even a 90 wRC+ against RHP, but five guys carrying the offense is certainly better than three.
While I wouldn’t say Cristopher Sanchez is out of the Cy Young race yet, he does have a 4.56 ER and 4.21 xERA over his last nine starts, though his xFIP is still 3.11 during this stretch.
The problem has been RHBs, who have a .408 wOBA against him in those starts and are up to a .336 wOBA and .317 xwOBA on the season.
Even without James Wood and Curtis Mead, the projected Washington lineup still averages a 111 wRC+ against LHP with each of BARTOLO’s first five projected batters owning a 105 wRC+ or higher against southpaws. Considering Sanchez has been league average at best against RHBs and Abrams is the only LHB in that group, he could face some resistance in this environment.
Anything less than a shelling from Mikolas would be a surprise and with a bullpen averaging estimators around five over the last month (28th), it may not stop once he leaves the game either. With the Nationals likely contributing at least something, an 8.5 or even 9 run total seems a bit shy here.
Picks: Over 8.5 (-120), 0.6u | Bet to 9 (-110)
White Sox @ Red Sox Picks
While I’m not usually in the habit of playing large favorites, Luis Castillo at Fenway might be too much to pass up.
He has a 5.06 ERA even pitching half his games in Seattle. That does come with some decent pitch modeling numbers (3.87 Bot ERA, 104 Pitching+), but additional indicators ranging from a 4.39 SIERA to a 4.90 dERA aren’t too much better than his surface results.
For the last few years, it remains the same problem. LHBs have smashed Castillo to the tune of a .379 wOBA and .365 xwOBA this year and that increases to a .419 wOBA away from T-Mobile.
I only wish that Boston had more than the four projected LHBs to attack him with, only two of which (Nick Sogard 132 wRC+ and Masataka Yoshida 102 wRC+) have been above average against RHP this year. However, over the last month, seven of the nine projected Red Sox exceed a 115 wRC+ overall.
The lineup should be able to do enough damage to Castillo to put Ranger Suarez in the drivers seat against a projected White Sox lineup averaging a 105 wRC+ against LHP this season, but just an 84 wRC+ overall in the last 30 days.
Suarez actually has worse pitch modeling numbers than Castillo with a 4.15 Bot ERA and 101 Pitching+, but a far better underlying performance even throwing out the 2.55 FIP (five home runs on 13 barrels) with his remaining estimators ranging from a 3.22 xFIP to a 3.55 SIERA.
Overall, I have Saurez nearly a run and a half ahead of Castillo, while giving the Boston lineup a small edge on the White Sox in their less favorable split.
With defenses about even, the Boston bullpen has been two-thirds of a run better than their counterpart here over the last month with BARTOLO cutting that gap in half on the season and considering any deadline moves, ranking the Red Sox the 2nd best relief corps in the league and the White Sox 6th.
Castillo may actually better than some of the guys the White Sox are still running out there every five days, but Fenway is probably not a good spot for him.
Picks: Red Sox -175, 0.88u | Bet to -190
Marlins @ Braves Picks
Jansen Junk has a better SIERA (4.43 to 4.58) and xERA (4.04 to 4.42) than Martin Perez, yet the latter has a far better ERA (3.24 to 4.58) because their BABIP’s differ by 62 points and their strand rates differ by 11.1 percentage points, both In favor of Perez.
Junk’s K-BB is 2.6 points higher, which is essentially the difference and why I have him about a quarter run ahead of Perez.
With both projected lineups averaging a 112 wRC+ against RHP, the Miami projected defense having a 9 FRV edge and also an 11 BRR advantage on the bases, the biggest Atlanta edge would seem to be a bullpen BARTOLO ranks 7 spots ahead of the Marlins, though that’s still only 0.16 runs by wFIP.
We could bypass that bullpen edge by playing an F5, but the full game price (+140) is so much better.
This one was short and to the point, but it’s all in the numbers presented.
Picks: Marlins +140, 0.5u | Bet to +130
Twins @ Royals Picks
Bailey Ober has a competitive 3.98 ERA over four starts back from the IL after missing the month of June.
He’s done this while throwing a fastball that has dropped to 87.4 mph 31.8% of the time. It has a 50 PitchingBot overall grade, but just an 82 Pitching+.
Of course, only two of Ober’s six barrels (9.7%) have left the park since his return and he’s gotten to face Cleveland twice without Jose Ramirez.
On the season, Ober’s 4.45 ERA is a perfect match for his xERA, but is below all of his remaining indicators, including a 4.98 Bot ERA and 87 Pitching+.
In other words, his surface results this year probably present his current ceiling.
He’ll also be facing a Kansas City lineup that’s a little bit better with Bobby Witt Jr. back, averaging a 109 wRC+ against RHP and 115 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Even Sal Perez (138 wRC+) has perked up over the last month.
The Twins also project to put a defense on the field that has accumulated -19 FRV to back Ober. Kody Clemens and Ryan Kreidler are the only positive defenders in that lineup, both at 1 FRV each.
While Michael Wacha’s estimators ranging from a 3.93 FIP to a 4.32 Bot ERA and dERA are also well above his 3.51 ERA, he’s still running about one-third of a run better than Ober and may actually have the slightly better matchup with Byron Buxton on the IL.
The Minnesota projected nine via BARTOLO averages a 107 wRC+ against RHP and 94 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Wacha will also have the better defense behind his back with the projected Royals at 5 FRV. Witt is responsible for 14 FRV on his own, but that FRV also increases 10 points if Perez is at DH instead of behind the plate.
No matter how you look at bullpens, that’s the one clear Minnesota edge here (A.J. Minter and Jeff Hoffman aboard) and it could be avoided with an F5, but here again, the better full game line (-115) may be worth the risk.
Picks: Royals -115, 0.58u | Bet to -120
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, August 6
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- A's +125 F5, 0.5u | Bet to +115
- Cubs +108, 1u | Bet to -130
- Tigers +110, 1u | Bet to -110
- Nationals/Phillies Over 8.5 (-120), 0.6u | Bet to 9 (-110)
- Red Sox -175, 0.88u | Bet to -190
- Marlins +140, 0.5u | Bet to +130
- Royals -115, 0.58u | Bet to -120
