Angels vs. Guardians MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Will LA Stay Hot in Cleveland? (September 12)
Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images. Pictured: Reid Detmers (Angels)
- The Angels open a three-game set against the Guardians on Monday evening.
- Cleveland won't own an advantage in the starting pitching matchup, as Konnor Pilkington takes the hill opposite Reid Detmers.
- Nick Martin breaks down the matchup and offers up his best bet.
Angels vs. Guardians Odds
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Cleveland's pursuit of a surprising AL Central division crown will continue Monday, as the Los Angeles Angels head to town for a three-game set.
The Guardians enter after a massive three-game sweep over the Twins over the weekend, which extended their lead atop the division to 2.5 games.
Los Angeles has been in far more reasonable form of late, with a record of 9-6 over the last 15 contests.
Will the Angels continue to play the role of spoiler effectively against the division-leading Guardians?
Angels' Detmers Pitching Well Since All-Star Break
Los Angeles has quietly fallen into notably strong play of late. It not only owns a 9-6 record over the last 15 games — a strong mark — but those games have come against mainly elite competition — two sets vs. Houston (x6), Toronto, New York and Detroit.
The Angels have played to a +15 run differential during that span, with far better offensive numbers, including a wRC+ of 113 and a .331 wOBA.
The Angels could be well situated to see their surprising run of success continue on Monday, as Reid Detmers has offered reasonable results throughout 2022. He will take on Konnor Pilkington and the Cleveland bullpen in this contest.
Detmers has pitched to an exceptional ERA of 2.84 post All-Star break, albeit with a WHIP of 1.42 and a well below-average xWOBA during that tear. Those both suggest he will likely allow more runs moving forward.
Guardians Don't Own Starting Pitching Advantage
Cleveland's strong results this season certainly have not been led by its offensive play, and that's especially the case with its splits against left-handed pitching.
The Guardians have been the second-least productive team in the league against lefties — a wRC+ of just 80 and a wOBA of .280 offering a clear weakness. Those are notably worse splits than the Angels hold versus lefties.
A lot of the time that flaw may not be such a concern, as the Guardians offer a strong pitching staff and quality bullpen. But in Monday's matchup that may not be the case, as Cleveland will open the contest with Pilkington and are therefore not holding a pitching advantage at the start.
Pilkington has pitched to a solid 3.99 ERA across 47.1 innings in the big leagues throughout 2022, including two shutout innings in his return from the minors last Sunday, However, his xERA of 4.89 suggests he has run with some good luck.
Pilkington's lowly minor league numbers are also a heavy indicator of that fact, considering he has managed a 5.66 ERA with Triple-A Columbus this season.
With Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale sidelined from the regular rotation, Pilkington may be counted on to manage three-to-four innings on Monday.
This could potentially be the game script to shoot for if you're looking for an Angels win.
Even while playing through a nightmare schedule, the Angels have produced far more reasonable results of late, and I think the dreadful results from earlier in the season may be impacting the prices on this contest — to an extent.
With Cleveland entering this matchup holding a rare disadvantage in pitching, I actually believe getting the Angels at plus money seems very strong.
Unfortunately, the lines have come down from where they were at opening, but I still feel the Angels are worthy of a play up to -105 — +100 is still widely available at the time of writing.
Pick: Los Angeles Angels ML +100 (Play to -105)