Friday Sharp Report: Pros Getting Down on Two Big Dogs, One Over
Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
With the NBA Playoffs on a hiatus and only one Friday night Stanley Cup Playoff game, the sports betting world will be laser-focused on MLB tonight. Wiseguy baseball bettors wouldn’t have it any other way.
After analyzing Friday’s 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 7:07, 8:10 and 10:10 p.m. ET.
All data as of 3:15 p.m. ET
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays (+161)
7:07 p.m. ET
Give the public an ace and they’ll take him every time. Despite being a massive -175 road favorite, 75% of bets are taking Chris Sale (3-1, 2.02 ERA) and the Red Sox. However, sharps see a buy-low opportunity with home divisional dog Toronto. Only 25% of bets are on the Jays, yet they’ve fallen more than 20 cents (+183 to +161). Why would the Toronto payout plummet if the vast majority of bets are on Boston? Because sharps hammered Toronto across the market, creating liability. Wiseguys at Pinnacle steamed Jays late last night and sharps at Buckeye hit Toronto this morning, triggering reverse line movement in their favor.
Texas Rangers – Houston Astros Over 8.5
8:10 p.m. ET
With Justin Verlander (4-1, 1.17 ERA) and Cole Hamels (1-4, 3.94 ERA) on the mound, recreational bettors see an easy, low-scoring game. The Under is getting 61% of bets, yet the total has risen from 7.5 to 8.5. This reverse line movement was caused by a plethora of bet signals across the market. Sharps at The Greek and Pinnacle hammered Over 7.5 and then wiseguys at CRIS hit Over 8. What’s most interesting: Pro Players at the Greek doubled down on the Over (first at 7.5 and again at 8). Even though the line got worse, they kept hitting it, signaling supreme wiseguy confidence. Another cherry on top for sharp contrarian Over backers: the wind is blowing out heavy to left center.
Cincinnati Reds (+177) at Los Angeles Dodgers
10:10 p.m. ET
Break up the Reds! Cincinnati is still one of the worst teams in baseball (11-27, -14.22 units), but they’ve won three in a row and send new addition Matt Harvey to the mound tonight. Wouldn’t you know it, wiseguys are taking a shot on the Red Legs once again. They’re only getting 23% of bets but have fallen from +197 to +177 at Pinnacle, signaling massive reverse line movement. Goodfellas at CRIS, Pinnacle and JustBet got down hard on Joey Votto and company, triggering three separate Cincy bet signals.
Looking for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.
The Pro membership also gives you a fully customizable live odds page with lines from 50+ books, the number of bets on every game, best bet picks, steam and reverse line moves, Sharp Action Report, weather, injuries, line watcher, line predictor and more.
For more betting info and customer support, you can find me on twitter @Josh_Insights
Top Photo: Cincinnati Reds center fielder Billy Hamilton (6) is safe at third after hitting an RBI triple against the Los Angeles Dodgers