The New York Mets host the Baltimore Orioles on September 14, 2026. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNY.
The Orioles are favored by -125 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Mets are +105 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Orioles vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Orioles vs Mets Prediction
- Orioles vs Mets Pick: Pete Alonso Over 0.5 walks, Alonso Over 0.5 home runs
My Orioles vs Mets best bet is for Pete Alonso to draw a walk and hit a home run. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page. Make sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Orioles vs Mets Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -200 | 8 -105o / -114u | +105 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +166 | 8 -105o / -114u | -125 |
- Orioles vs Mets moneyline: Orioles +105, Mets -125
- Orioles vs Mets over/under: 8 (-105o / -114u)
- Orioles vs Mets spread: Orioles -1.5 (+166), Mets +1.5 (-200)
Orioles vs Mets Probable Pitchers
| Brandon Young (RHP, BAL) | Stat | Jonah Tong (RHP, NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-4 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 3.71 / 4.41 | ERA / xERA | 4.80 / 3.70 |
| 4.51 / 4.54 | FIP / xFIP | 4.77 / 4.95 |
| 10.2% | K-BB% | 8.8% |
| 42.0% | GB% | 39.5% |
| .286 | BABIP | .233 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 105 | Location+ | 91 |
Orioles vs Mets MLB Betting Preview
Orioles vs Mets Pick, Betting Analysis
Editor's Note: This is a transcript from Monday's episode of Payoff Pitch.
It is Pete Alonso's return to Queens to face his former team, the Mets.
Knowing how 'Metsy' the Mets can get, and knowing that they likely regret, at least for this year, letting Alonso go, it only feels right to bet an Alonso prop tonight.
And for what it's worth, our PRO projections have Alonso to go deep. It looks like the line just moved a little bit, but it is still one of the top five or so homer edges in the market right now for him to hit a home run.
Getting about +300 to +350. I think I saw a +350 at Hard Rock out there against Jonah Tong tonight. To me, it just feels like a must-bet.
Here's how I'm also going to play this because he's facing Jonah Tong.
Tong has not been good in his cups of coffee in the majors. He's given up a decent amount of home runs and he also can't find the strike zone.
I'm going to go with an 80-grade, a 60-grade, and a 40-grade on Alonso. My 80-grade bet is going to be on Alonso to draw a walk.
Now, from a pure numbers perspective, this is priced right. He is +148 to draw a walk at DraftKings tonight, which is about implied odds of about 40%.
Alonso's walked in 39% of his games played this year. When you factor in Tong, Tong has walked at least at least a batter in every start this year, and he's just a wild pitcher.
He's still young and he's still getting a feel for his command and for the strike zone — you should factor that in.
You've also got to factor in that it's very possible that Tong and the Mets do not want to see Alonso hit a home run in Queens tonight.
They will likely be very careful with him.
Also, on top of that, Alonso's been on a heater since the All-Star break. He's one of the league leaders in homers again this year.
So it would not surprise me if they pitch around him.
Picks:
- Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Walks
- Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Home Runs
